A plane is missing and it is presumed that it was equally likely to have gone down
in any of three possible regions. Let $1 − \alpha_{i}$ denote the probability the plane will be found upon a search of the $i^{th}$ region when the plane is, in fact, in that region, $i = 1, 2, 3$. What is the probability that the plane is in the $i^{th}$ region, given that a search of region $1$ is unsuccessful, $i = 1, 2, 3$? My try : Given that search of $1$st region is unsuccesfull implies that the plane is in either region $2$nd or $3$rd with probability $0.5$, therefore probability that it will be found…