Your model suggests that on a 2d10 we have only a 5% chance of rolling 40 or below, but we have a 40% chance of rolling a 39 or below. How can that possibly be the case in reality? If I have a 40% chance of rolling a 39 or below, I can suggest I should have
at least that 40% chance of rolling 40 or below, because I can also just roll 39 or below to get 40 or below. How do you account for this? —
doppelgreener 1 min ago