Election 2016!

Conor O'Brien

00:00

@Geobits 538?

Geobits

fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/…

Conor O'Brien

o

Helka Homba

538 = number of total electoral votes btw

Conor O'Brien

oh, TIL

Helka Homba

538/2 = 269, so 270 to win

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

00:15

Trump has the plurality.

chat activity, please

Conor O'Brien

"Better Days" / "The Goo Goo Dolls"

Helka Homba

@noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC because they reported first. Nothing unexpected 270towin.com

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

@ConorO'Brien ?

Conor O'Brien

it's a good song

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

@HelkaHomba huh?

I thought pop cons weren't allowed at PPCG. This is a pop-con!

Any non-usa people here?

arda

00:24

@noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC raises hand

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

I should invite some non-usa people from TNB main.

arda

hello, its 3:30am here and I have exam tomorrow, but I want to see if hrc or trump will win

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

@arda You mean if we're all doomed.

USA is one place away from being demoted to a flawed democracy.

Lowest score for any full democracy

(Economist Intelligence Unit, 2015)

Conor O'Brien

@arda you wont see it for at least another 4 hours. CA polls close at 8 and it's 4 there now

IIRC

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

@arda Timezone?

Trump slips to 52%

arda

00:28

@noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC utc+3

Helka Homba

@noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC What result is this?

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

@HelkaHomba Popular vote. Source: associated press

Conor O'Brien

nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/07/us/elections/…

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

Clinton at 46% for reference.

I'm using google's interface.

We need to build a moat and make the Canadians pay for it!

2-3 mil people have voted.

Reply "nay" if you think voter turnout will be higher, "yay" if you think voter turnout will be lower. Compared to 2012.

nay - such a contentious election; Donald Trump

yay - such a hard choice for many americans

@1000000000 hi

quartata

Keeping track of the votes right now is pointless; only very republican states have finished so

@noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC Hard choice?

1000000000

00:32

@noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC hello

quartata

The people who are going to vote Trump were always going to vote Trump. Anyone else isn't going to even consider voting Trump. That's pretty much it

The only reason it's a "hard choice" for people is that at least in my state they put a metric fuckton of other stuff on the ballot

Wheat Wizard

@1000000000 How's it going

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

@quartata for some, I think it's easy.

Random image of the day:

Chat activity?

Eᴀsᴛᴇʀʟʏ Iʀᴋ

this is actually fairly full

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

huh?

@EᴀsᴛᴇʀʟʏIʀᴋ huh?

@quartata doesn't have to

50-47, it's tightening

quartata

00:55

Check back in 3 hours then you'll have a better picture :P

4

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

@quartata I know....

clinton leading

Helka Homba

01:10

44-31, but night is still young

Sp3000

grabs popcorn

quartata

@HelkaHomba Actually if she wins here in Florida it's pretty much over.

Geobits

Hmm, I don't seem too have any popcorn, so it'll have to be Cheez-its.

Helka Homba

@noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC the pop vote is unlikely to matter, watch electoral college politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president

Conor O'Brien

@quartata but then it'll be Al Gore/Bush again

Geobits

01:12

@ConorO'Brien Not really

Conor O'Brien

didn't trump say he'll contest?

Geobits

200 was actually a close election in Florida. This won't be that close.

Trump says a lot of things...

Helka Homba

He says a lot of things

bah

Doorknob

Texas went blue O_o

Helka Homba

@Doorknob Where?

Doorknob

01:14

@HelkaHomba According to the Google widget thingy, anyway

Geobits

More correctly, San Antonio went blue. Most of the state hasn't been counted.

You can click on the state to give a county-level map.

Doorknob

Oh, that's pretty neat

Geobits

But yeah, if Florida gets called for Clinton, it's pretty much game over, barring some exceptional upsets.

> The marijuana ballot measure in Florida passed by a landslide, legalizing medical pot for specific debilitating diseases. With 76.9 percent in favor and 29.1 percent opposed, the results lined up with the polls we looked at.

Well, it's a start.

Helka Homba

CMC: Guess how many electoral votes Trump will get. Winner gets own cookie.

Geobits

@HelkaHomba 207

Helka Homba

01:21

I say 220

Closest answer wins if no exact winner

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

216

@HelkaHomba @Geobits where's the fastest of the west electoral college map?

Geobits

The, uh... what?

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

@Geobits Fastest updating electoral college map.

NBC was faster than google

Geobits

That's because google doesn't "call" states, they look for networks to call them.

They all update in real time as they get the info though. Some may make calls at different times, but there's no one "fastest" map.

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

@Geobits Fastest online map?

Dennis

01:35

Are the Democrats really winning in Texas? o_O

Geobits

@noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC I just said there isn't one fastest one.

Doorknob

@Dennis Scroll up :P

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

@Dennis Only a few counties have released results.

Geobits

@Dennis Probably not. Only 1% reporting so far

Doorknob

Also, not anymore, actually.

Dennis

01:36

Ah, OK.

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

Google changed their UI.

last year the colors were switched :P

@arda What do you think so far? Erodgan isn't in this one...

Let's talk congress.

Dennis

What's with the donkey and the elephant?

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

@Dennis donkey = dem, elephant = repub; did you not know? :P

Dennis

I guessed that, but what's the connection?

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

Alyson Kennedy is the Socialist Worker's party's candidate

@Dennis dunno

Well I know for dems.

They were called jackasses. They like the name. They adopted it as their avatar. True story.

Trump is winning florida! Most counties have reported!

Wheat Wizard

01:41

@Dennis The democrats get their animal from Andrew Jackson, who was nicknamed the jackass.

ninja'd

DrMcMoylex

Huh. TIL

Geobits

@noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC last I saw only 60% reporting

DrMcMoylex

What about the elephant?

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

^

Helka Homba

Florida politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/florida

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

01:43

The gerrymandering is real...

49% of the vote, most of the counties. Wow.

Geobits

Well yeah. Most of the counties have low population.

You'll notice the only major city that's red is Jacksonville.

DrMcMoylex

Where in Florida are you? (If you don't mind my asking)

Geobits

In one of the blue areas ;)

DrMcMoylex

Aren't most of yall?

Geobits

Most of us what?

DrMcMoylex

01:48

Floridians

Geobits

I'm not sure what the exact breakdown is, but the urban areas are mostly blue, yeah.

DrMcMoylex

It's interesting, this the first close election I've seen. In the only other ones I remember, Obama was pretty far ahead

Wheat Wizard

interesting I remember 2012 being a lot closer than this

Dennis

Bush vs Gore was pretty close, putting it mildly.

DrMcMoylex

Yeah, but I was 3 when that happened. :P

Geobits

01:53

You gotta remember there are kids here that weren't born then :P

DrMcMoylex

And I don't remember 04

Dennis

Geez, now I feel old. Thanks.

Geobits

Any time

DrMcMoylex

I'm not even on the young side as far as TNB goes.

All those 13-16 year olds

Geobits

I'd be shocked if some of them weren't 12 tbh

Helka Homba

02:00

CMC: Which news site has the cutest cartoon donkey/elephant.

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

Polls about to close in 14 states!

Sp3000

I don't know about donkey/elephant, but The Guardian has somewhat cute character images (and quotes, once in a while)

Helka Homba

Huffposts are cute elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/results/senate

Geobits

I got 110 rep on Politics today :D

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

02:20

It looks like trump is gonna win, the map is ominous...

Geobits

See, that's why you should wait.

quartata

@noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC You must be new here

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

@quartata what? why? I posted the fourth message

Geobits

New to elections, not the chat room.

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

I am new, yeah.

Wheat Wizard

02:25

Republicans generally win the larger less populus states

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

So, election predictions.

@quartata why do you say that?

Senate is head to head; house is repub

quartata

Yeah all the shiny red things look intimidating but they aren't really the states that matter

I'm mostly just watching for the senate; I'm fairly confident that Clinton will wrap up in Florida and then it's gg

Trump can't lose a battleground state

Wheat Wizard

Even if Clinton looses Florida Trump has an uphill battle

Geobits

Senate looks like it's going to stay in R hands.

Just not by so big a margin as it currently is.

quartata

Bleh.

Dennis

02:29

I thought most of the senate seats that aren't open for election corresponded to the jackasses.

Geobits

Republicans had more to lose, but a lot of them weren't really that competitive also. So they'll lose a few seats, but retain overall control (or so it seems right now).

Dennis

You obviously understand this better than I do, but by my count, Democrats currently have 78 while Republicans have 72, and 18 are still to be disputed.

Wait, no that can't be right.

Oh, Google includes all seats in their interactive thingie, disputed or not...

Geobits

Right

And the ones that are left disputed are more safely republican ones.

Dennis

10/10 very confusing

I'm kinda surprised 4% of the voters are wasting their votes on other candidates. With the system you have over there, that seems entirely pointless.

Geobits

Kinda. If a party gets 5%, they qualify for more funding options for following races.

Dennis

02:36

Still, those 4% could very well make the difference.

Wheat Wizard

In a lot of states (for instance mine) the result is almost guaranteed. Voting for a third party can be a political statement and can help support your candidate in the next election.

Geobits

Yeah, that too. Voting third party in somewhere like Florida, though... that's really just a big FU to both of the major candidates.

1000000000

Maine has got a ranked choice voting referendum on their ballot which would make third party votes more than just a protest vote

quartata

Ooh interesting

feersum

Or at least, protest while at the same time influencing the outcome.

Geobits

02:44

Well, with only four electoral votes and no other states doing it, that sounds like a sure-fire way to get politicians to ignore your state for a while.

DrMcMoylex

Wow. 80% against Colorado care

quartata

@Geobits Sure but it's still interesting

Geobits

Oh sure. I'm not saying it isn't. Just that it makes things harder for them to guess, so unless there's a big stake involved, it makes the state less influential than it is now imo.

1000000000

If it gets some national attention though, you might see it cropping up in other states

Downgoat

> Looking at election map results and I think I underestimated the number of racists in America.

:|

Benzene

02:51

^

Geobits

@1000000000 I agree, this would be the best long-term solution. That's why I ended my first comment with "for a while".

1000000000

Personally I hope we get rid of the Electoral College while we are at it

8

Benzene

I think winner takes all sucks. It is why we are stuck with a two party system.

Wheat Wizard

The united states is at the intersection of 3 terrible voting systems. fptp, electoral college and winner takes all

Benzene

so true

Wheat Wizard

02:59

I would suggest that we split up the country like divorced parents. Winner gets Wednesday - Saturday, Loser gets Sunday - Tuesday

5

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

Independents are underperforming.

@quartata Trump has electoral college AND florida.

Cooper and McCrory are head to head at 49%, both

Wheat Wizard

Does anyone still have that poll closing time map that was in TNB before?

quartata

I don't get what people have against winner takes all

Wheat Wizard

For one it gives a lot of power to swing states

Benzene

@quartata It prevents small parties (such as a socialist party) from having any representation in government.

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

03:13

My model, based off the latest polling stats, shows trump winning by 13 votes:

@WheatWizard nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/07/us/elections/…

Wheat Wizard

not the one I was thinking of, looks even better.Thanks!

noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC

@Shog9, woah, you're here?

Bottom line: It's not going to be a landslide HRC victory

Doorknob

@noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC Florida as strongly red seems a bit dubious

Shog9

@noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC yep. Armed with popcorn & whiskey

Wheat Wizard

Especially when Pennsylvania is only slightly blue

Geobits

03:17

Oh. I should get the rum and crackers then

Shog9

@DrMcMoylex kinda bummed about that; didn't expect it to pass, but hoped it'd be closer.

Also not happy about the direction 71 is taking :-/

DrMcMoylex

Oh, you're from ~~colorado~~ the best state too?

Shog9

let's not quibble about where I'm from - I'm here now, so it's what I care about

chuffed to see Johnson doing as well as he is

DrMcMoylex

I'm not sure I get why 71 is a big deal

It doesn't seem to matter either way

Shog9

more the folks who are behind 71

the goal isn't to block amendments, it's to make them more predictable

DrMcMoylex

03:21

So are you against it then?

Geobits

Oh, I forgot I had this stuff. Seems perfect for the occasion:

Wheat Wizard

03:43

Well that just turned around

Geobits

Major update! This sake that's been sitting in my cupboard for a few years is actually really good. Never had this brand before, but it's not half bad at all.

Shog9

good to hear!

Downgoat

@noɥʇʎPʎzɐɹC ono ;______________;

lmao air canada stock is increasing as poll results come out

Wheat Wizard

04:03

ABC news called California 32 seconds after polls closed

Downgoat

ono, ;_; duck is still winning

Sp3000

xe.com/currencycharts/?from=MXN&to=USD&view=1D

Funtimes for the Mexican peso

wat

@Downgoat wat

Sp3000

(Donald) duck, I presume

wat

@Sp3000 refresh pls

Nathan Merrill

04:10

hey, can one of you look at idaho's vote count on the current election results?
it says its already finalized, but that only some 2,000 people voted

wat

@NathanMerrill wait, wat? only 2000?

Wheat Wizard

I;m seeing the same number

Nathan Merrill

Wheat Wizard

They called california with 0% reporting

Idaho is a historically red state so its likely they assumed it would go red

1000000000

@NathanMerrill and Hawaii as well by the looks of it

Wheat Wizard

04:12

and tbh it likely will

Downgoat

@wat donald trump = donald duck = duck

wat

I know, I was making fun of my picture

Nathan Merrill

@1000000000 not sure what's up with hawaii. It's also odd that they are already finalized, when they are in a different timezone

Wheat Wizard

They closed polls in Hawaii already

Nathan Merrill

right, its odd that they did it so early

I mean, its super convenient, but I'd hate it if I was in Hawaii

Wheat Wizard

04:19

I personally don't like that they "call" states at all. It makes your vote feel worthless if your precinct hasn't reported and they already called your state. Plus states that get called while other states are still open influence the outcome of the election

2

Nathan Merrill

also, take a look at my state: Utah. We've only got a 78% vote rate on the top two candidates :P

we had a really strong 3rd party candidate, changing lots of votes around here

Downgoat

2

mınxomaτ

222 to 197 for Trump? Is that correct: bbc.com/news/election/us2016/results ?

wat

04:35

wikiwand.com/en/FairTax

Downgoat

Apparently Trump has 95% chance of win ;______;

Wheat Wizard

According to 538 it is 77% rn

mınxomaτ

@wat sorta appropriate

Downgoat

^

wat

@mınxomaτ paying respects?

Downgoat

04:36

I am half "ono y dis happening", half "f*** f*** f***"

4

mınxomaτ

That escalated quickly. That last count was C/T 197/193. Now it's 197/222

wat

where are you located @Downgoat

Downgoat

CA

Thankfully the majoraty of my state seems to be sane but apparently that doesnt hold true for the rest of the US

mınxomaτ

@Downgoat I think soon everyone of you has to fight for their sanity if all goes south.

209/228

Downgoat

99% of me is in denial this is even happening, and the other 1% is hoping at last moment, my fellow americans will come through and make right choice ;_;

wat

04:42

still think drumpf will win

mbomb007

@Doorknob 99% reporting, so Florida was called as Trump winning.

LIVE STATS

nytimes.com/elections/results/president

Doorknob

@mbomb007 Yeah, Florida was called a while ago

PhiNotPi

@Downgoat polls are closed right? Just counting now. This news is too late to affect the voting.

mbomb007

>95% that Trump wins

Wheat Wizard

1000000000

04:43

@Downgoat The only choice that our fellow americans could make now that would swing the election the opposite direction would be misplacing a large number of trump ballets

mbomb007

@1000000000 Why? The people who care the most are the ones who participate. Literally anyone can go be a delegate in their state.

I went

wat

209/232

Downgoat

@PhiNotPi hawaii?

Oh

Wheat Wizard

@1000000000 Alaska is still open

mbomb007

@PhiNotPi For most states.

Sp3000

04:45

@WheatWizard Or, as may you know it, the ****-filled cornucopia that just keeps on giving

wat

@mbomb007 I can't.\

1000000000

@mbomb007 Oh yeah... that's right

mbomb007

@wat Not 18 yet?

Sp3000

(I almost can't wait for Sunday to see what happens on Last Week Tonight)

1000000000

@WheatWizard Alaska may very well be not big enough to matter

mbomb007

04:46

People ages 13-17 can go as Junior Delegates

if your state has that, idk

wat

@mbomb007 15

mbomb007

Well, now you know. When you're 19 in four years, go be a delegate and get involved.

You help adjust the platform, and appoint people to committees.

wat

@mbomb007 ok, will consider

PhiNotPi

This is honestly the first time I've felt truly ashamed of my country.

4

mbomb007

And go as an alternate if the delegate positions are taken. I did, but many people don't show up and you get seated anyway.

@PhiNotPi I'm more ashamed that people chose Trump over the other Republican options.

Downgoat

04:48

;_; i should of become poll worker and comit voter fraud

crap wat if nsa is listening

wat

@Downgoat and get convicted?

Downgoat

@wat no not that part

mbomb007

@Downgoat Maybe they'll encourage it, like the DNC

wat

@Downgoat you would be discovered

Downgoat

just yhe through out all trump ballot part

wat

04:49

What does TNB think of the Fair Tax? wikiwand.com/en/FairTax

Downgoat

@wat i am a goat i can just eat them and no one will notice

wat

lol

mbomb007

Anyways, I'll be glad if Hillary loses.

Too much corruption

And most of all, it proves how biased the media is, because they've been showing Hillary as being 10-15% ahead of Trump, but that's obviously false.

mınxomaτ

@mbomb007 Not in the last days. Clinton was falling in poll averages, at least from what the BBC reported.

Dunno about american media.

1000000000

@mınxomaτ Same thing here

Wheat Wizard

04:54

@mbomb007 If anyone didn't already realize how biased the media are, I doubt they will now.

mınxomaτ

Three days ago the medium average was 45/45 and they've crossed streams many times

Also, 209/244. Wow.

betseg

Hey

Just woke up

Gj, murica

Shog9

Thank you. Good to be appreciated

Sp3000

So how does the vote work in America anyway? Do you only get to pick one person, or do you number them in order of preference?

DrMcMoylex

Pick one

PhiNotPi

04:59

@Sp3000 pick one

Sp3000

:/

mınxomaτ

You only vote for people to vote AFAIK

Wheat Wizard

That is true

1000000000

@Sp3000 Maine might soon be allowing ranked voting

wat

fuck the electoral college

Wheat Wizard

05:00

in fact a dem representative in Washington said they wont vote for Clinton

PhiNotPi

It's not even the electoral college that's the problem, it's the "pick one" ballots.

Sp3000

I hope they do ranked, one seems a bit odd to me personally

feersum

@wat Trump's winning popular vote too...

wat

johnson for president 2020

Downgoat

@betseg thanks, were really good at doing stupid

PhiNotPi

05:01

@wat maine is voting about having ranked, but doesn't currently

Wheat Wizard

They are not they voted whether or not to do so in the future

feersum

I dunno, I don't think we can handle this ranked thing. Does it require numbers?

wat

@PhiNotPi k

Dennis

@Sp3000 A simple majority in a state selects all electors of that state, which may or may not vote for the candidate this majority voted for.

It's a pretty screwed up system if you ask me.

Wheat Wizard

@Dennis Not all states are simple majority

Maine and Nebraska split their electors

Sp3000

05:03

Does anything happen to the losing ballots, e.g. does third place get to choose whether to give their votes to first or second place?

Wheat Wizard

Nope

feersum

@Sp3000 Think more primitive.

Sp3000

Hmm I see

PhiNotPi

Think an 18th century country trying to figure out how democracy should work, because that's where we are still at.

3

Wheat Wizard

Plus every state gets 2 extra votes regardless of its size.

If you live in a small state you essentially get more votes

Sp3000

05:05

But yeah re:ranked I feel like if you want to vote one, you should be able to just vote one, but you should also get the option of numbering 2, 3, 4, etc if you have a preference

wat

trinton vs clump

Shog9

Single transferable vote

The single transferable vote (STV) is a voting system designed to achieve proportional representation through ranked voting in multi-seat constituencies (voting districts). Under STV, an elector (voter) has a single vote that is initially allocated to their most preferred candidate and, as the count proceeds and candidates are either elected or eliminated, is transferred to other candidates according to the voter's stated preferences, in proportion to any surplus or discarded votes. The exact method of reapportioning votes can vary (see Counting methods). The system provides approximately p...

...would be nice

Sp3000

(does a minor fistpump for Aus)

PhiNotPi

I'm also a fan of either approval voting, or a fully-ranked Condorcet method.

But really... it doesn't matter what we switch to as long as it's not what we currently have.

feersum

How about you express your level of support for each candidate with any real-valued expression you can fit onto the ballot.

Candidate with highest sum of support wins.

PhiNotPi

05:12

@feersum the negative aspect of this is that people who "scream louder" on their ballots would have more influence: the optimal strategy is to min-max your ballot which is still moderately dishonest.

feersum

Do you dislike that people who are good at math get more votes?

wat

I found a picture of @Downgoat if trump wins

PhiNotPi

@feersum the goal should be that an honest ballot is an optimal ballot

feersum

My goal was that the ballot with the most math is optimal.

PhiNotPi

oh, I think I misunderstood... (aka took your joke as a literal endorsement of range voting)

feersum

05:16

Anyway, approval voting doesn't necessarily make honesty optimal either.

@PhiNotPi hahaha somebody suggested that as a "serious" proposal?

mınxomaτ

Let's go live to the Canadian border: https://t.co/xkvIU37npQ

Tweeted by Softykjr on November 9, 2016 at 4:40 AM

(click for image)

feersum

05:31

Hmm, I just realized my (-∞, ∞) range voting idea isn't so good, since equality of real numbers is undecidable. We could have an uncomputable election result (even assuming votes were required to be computable).

wat

@feersum 0-10 each candidate

feersum

@wat Still uncomputable.

???

wat

fuck

Geobits

05:48

What the... I leave the chat room for a couple hours and this is what you guys let happen?

Wheat Wizard

Don't worry its not over. You can still fix it for us

Geobits

Downvote all the things?

wat

@Geobits Consider becoming a Trump supporter for a day

Geobits

No thanks

wat

...wtf did i just write

Geobits

05:52

Again, no thanks.

How many times are you going to edit-ping me?

wat

@Geobits sorry :(

mınxomaτ

How to move to Canada: Immigration website crashes as Donald Trump election victory looks imminent

2

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