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00:06
@Cerberus These all work out to nearly that same figure, around a third, if you take (1 - 1/N) ** N. So your 1/1250 year event will, over 1,250 years, have a 36.773224032475253128% chance of NOT happening. A 1/10 year event over 10 years is 34.86784401% chance of NOT happening.
None of this takes climate change into account, so it tells you nothing about the odds of something happening in the next hundred years. It only tells you about what the odds are right now, in current conditions.
The stuff with the climate scientists has no relevance here whatsoever.
Yes, kind of.
But of course the long-term planning of governments takes all kind of climate scenarios into account.
In other words: if someone tells you that, with climate change, one in four people will be at risk of flooding, that's only a 5% increase.
> Also, this heat wave was about 2 ∘C hotter than a 1-in-1000-year heat wave would have been in 1850–1900, when global mean temperatures were 1.2 ∘C cooler than today.
> Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several
degrees Celsius in several cities in the Pacific Northwest areas of the US
and Canada, leading to spikes in sudden deaths and sharp increases in
emergency calls and hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we
present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis to investigate the
extent to which human-induced climate change has influenced the probability
and intensity of extreme heat waves in this region. Based on observations,
00:15
Those numbers I believe.
> A heat wave of this extent and extremity might therefore no longer be considered very rare if it could be expected anywhere around the globe every 1 or 2 decades.
See we shall.
@tchrist We got snow here today. Just a squall, already melted.
@Robusto We're not expecting anything for real till the weekend when the signature polar vortex meets all the moisture sucked up out of the Gulf of America and the temperatures dip a little below brine-freeze a couple nights in a row.
For my part I think wildfires are divine punishment for suburbanization.
@tchrist Did you have a big snow dump a couple of weeks ago? I thought I saw something in the news.
00:27
@alphabet "People are at risk of flooding" suggests: OMG the situation is very unsafe, we need to do something about it now, highest priority. But that is not at all what the data behind the image are about at all.
@Cerberus I mean, it's bad that people are at high risk of flooding, and that map says where it's most important to protect people. Whether it's "highest priority" depends on what you think the other priorities are.
@alphabet I don't believe that that is what it says at all.
Have you looked at the list of serious floods I posted?
Those weren't here.
Even though we are "no 1 at risk" in the word.
People die in floods where protection isn't organised well enough, for the time being.
@Cerberus Yes, as stated above its measurements are distorted by not taking those sorts of protections into account.
Therefore the image means very little.
It doesn't mean any of that.
Presumably the best way to save lives is to give India $X billion to build flood barriers and/or move people inland.
00:36
I would say, Bangladesh first.
Except that you need to organise part of it, too.
They don't have a lot of experience with the stuff.
Dutch engineers do a lot in Bangladesh.
Collaboration between the Dutch and Bangladeshi governments, I think.
The British are the ones that screwed that region up; make them fix it.
What did they do with respect to flooding?
I suspect people always lived in the lower regions there.
Just like here.
@alphabet You don't really need to move people if you spend enough to build dikes.
Or even sea walls like in Japan, if you really have to.
Ok, ok, hear me out, we give them all visas as long as they stay in West Virginia and create jobs that don't involve coal mines or fentanyl.
@Robusto I don't think I got more than eight or ten inches.
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Q: Can I omit predicate without being misunderstood?

ISundae'He thinks I'd rather put my hat on' sounds perfectly correct (where 'I'd rather' stands for 'I should'). But can I say: 'HP (predicate) I'd rather install a plug-in'? If yes, when? PS. I know, that the predicate is not normally omitted, and a huge bit of information is missing, but I think I saw...

I don't understand.
00:54
That one I'd let ELL deal with.
Perhaps the problem is that rather is not normally a predicate. — John Lawler Jul 8, 2012 at 23:08
01:16
@alphabet I'm sure that won't increase orange support at all...
@Vikas The fires are not yet in the city center where hotels, skyscrapers, and UCLA are. Most destroyed buildings are single-family homes and smaller businesses and schools. The Getty Museum and the Getty Villa survived through careful advance planning.
02:13
Does rain in Spain explain the Boltzmann brain?
@Xanne Is there a fire again?
02:34
p.s. Unrelated local news, which I find a rather telling reflection on Musk's notion of free speech : “@ThePenthouse604 is temporarily unavailable because it violates the X hateful profile policy”. These guys regularly run funny quips on their sign, but... not everyone is amused. — Italian Philosopher 2 days ago
That's Iran-level censorship
> Being popular on social media is like being the most conveniently located bathroom in an airport
@CowperKettle if they could bill you for airport bathroom breaks
@Cerberus I didn't know what to think of the map, given prior conversations, but after reading all your comments, I can't believe any number in that graphic. Even the uncontroversial looking ones
@CowperKettle There is fire still. It has been burning for six days now—some of the fires are controlled (there’s a perimeter around them), but the two big ones are not, and more high winds are expected tomorrow. The winds spray embers for distances like two miles, which then ignite other structures. So far over 10,000 structures have burned.
@Mitch That is wise.
02:43
@Xanne Maybe some planning should be done for creating fire-resistant lines of houses to prevent this in future
@Barmar She probably thinks the verb is "missing" in I would rather, not realizing this was originally the lexical verb will meaning "want, desire", not the modal auxiliary! It's become an idiom so is no longer analysed that way synchronically as the underlying diachronic explanation isn't available to new learners. OED will sense “I.ii.4.a. transitive. Equivalent to sense I.i.2a, expressing a person's wish: desire or wish (that something be done or happen): wish for, have a mind to, want (something)...Now only in would rather: should prefer." Dunno if that's her question. — tchrist ♦ 14 mins ago
@CowperKettle There are firestorms that nothing could ever withstand.
Not above ground, at least.
Even people who did everything "right" have often lost everything in this.
@CowperKettle Yes. Some residents are complaining that there were plans that weren’t put into effect. Budgets got cut. Even bond issues to build new reservoirs etc. were passed, but nothing happened.
Nobody wants to live in a locked down cement prison block surrounded by concrete. They want fairly normal looking homes, and they want vegetation not devastation. But devastation they now have.
@Xanne I remain extremely worried about the hot winds. Hurricanes that bring fire not water.
That's what got us in our big one a few years back on New Year's Eve. Hundred mile winds cast embers impossibly far, and there was no stopping anything.
All they could do is get people out of the way. Which has been hard for you guys out there this time.
People should NOT be dying in their cars, gridlocked trying to escape due to lack of safe routes that can handle the load.
@tchrist That’s what’s forecast for the next few days.
I know one person who lost his house, another person who was evacuated but could return.
People who do not live in this world never appreciate how very, very, very difficult it is to find any solution to these disasters. But more can be done.
@CowperKettle I know Siberia has had wildfires, although perhaps not anything like these.
02:59
Probably much larger wildfires in Siberia, but in mostly uninhabited areas.
@Xanne I have coworkers in the immediate area, with families, just a street away from the evac zone. They all know people like that, but so far are ok. My own family in that area are up in Camarillo in Ventura County, so should be ok this time around.
@Arfrever Yeah, like all those terrible boreal-forest fires up in Canada.
In 2024, far-reaching wildfires ignited and spread across large areas of Russian territory, primarily in Siberia and also in southern regions. The wildfires resulted in a burnt area of 8.8 million hectares (21.7 million acres) by July 18, and carbon emissions of 6.8 megatons by July 1, equaling the combined June–July emissions of 2023 in just one month. == Wildfires == Climate researchers and experts stated that increases in global temperature have led to the increased prevalence of wildfire conditions across Russian forests by causing increased heat, drier conditions, and decreased soil moisture...
@Xanne I'm not altogether sure that 70 mph winds will be substantially less incendiary than the earlier 100 mph winds were.
@Arfrever It's only a matter of time before the fires will come for the population centers.
In previous years (<2022), Russian military airplanes were helping in extinguishing fires, but now they are busy with genocide in Ukraine.
@Arfrever Clearly they have their priorities.
This evening I heard on local news here that 35 fire engines from Colorado had joined the effort in Southern California. Plus of course there are all those assets that were sent in from Mexico and Canada.
I cannot help but recall the unexplained burning of cities seemingly EVERYWHERE during the Late Bronze Age Collapse.
Torched by invaders? By revolution? By super dry climate turned murderously incendiary? Who knows!
Or by volcanos and meteor storms and Velikovsky. :)
03:11
@tchrist Wouldn't forest fires be a very normal occurrence without big organises fire brigades everywhere?
So that the fires that happened remained relatively small?
@Cerberus You cannot have a fire brigade big enough to stop this.
Cities burned because people heated food and themselves.
@tchrist Currently, forest fires are fought.
Maybe. We aren't sure.
> However, the site was rebuilt only to face destruction in 1190 BC as the result of a series of major fires. There is a suggestion by Robert Drews that the fires could have been the result of an attack on the site and its palace; however, Eric Cline points out the lack of archaeological evidence for an attack.[32][33] Thus, while fire was definitely the cause of the destruction, it is unclear what or who caused it.
Thebes though was sacked.
@tchrist I heard that there was drought in Greece, Asia Minor and Levant, and it caused emigrations etc.
@Cerberus They are, but there is a class of firestorm that you cannot possibly "fight".
@Arfrever yes
03:13
@tchrist Which Trump will pay them back by imposing huge tariffs.
How dare they help liberal California!
@tchrist If small fires all the time keep the amount of dry wood low, and large, old unburned forests smaller, then fires can't become so big?
When it comes roaring at you hundreds of feet high, fanned by hundred-mile-per-hour winds, absolutely nothing can be "fought". Might as well have a fire brigade as Dresden.
@Cerberus We're talking a continental forest. There's no way to groom it all.
We've talked about Peshtigo before, the firestorm they studied in order to do what they did at Dresden.
Don't you think there is a lot more burnable material now in the average hectare of forest compared to pre-modern times?
No.
Because the average acre is in unreachable wilderness.
But the parts closer to civilisation?
03:17
Well certainly we have a century of policy against letting even the tiniest fire do what it does.
That is what I was thinking of, yes.
But in California they've built communities without regard to being able to defend them or escape from them.
These are steep, steep canyons, deeply forested, and dry as tinder. Very hard to battle. No clear escape routes for that many people.
So it's a lot of things.
(Already in 2022: babel.ua/en/news/…)
> Destruction was heaviest at palaces and fortified sites, and none of the Mycenaean palaces of the Late Bronze Age survived (with the possible exception of the Cyclopean fortifications on the Acropolis of Athens). Thebes was one of the earliest examples of this, having its palace sacked repeatedly between 1300 and 1200 BC and eventually completely destroyed by fire.
Some of these people whose homes were destroyed this time are ones they rebuilt after an earlier fire there.
> A red-flag warning is in place for parts of the city and county, with wind gusts of up to 70 mph forecast between 4 a.m. Tuesday and noon Wednesday. Vast swaths of the area face a “particularly dangerous situation,” the Weather Service said.
@Robusto I have no idea how he intends to punish California in this, but I'm sure he'll find a way to bring more misery.
04:08
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Build house from metal, not wood or paper.
That's what happened here. The towns that were destroyed were many miles from anything like forests.
The people who have lost their homes (and maybe their valuable items in those homes) would receive compensation (money) from government? OR do they have some kind of insurance?
Ours was "merely" a grass fire. No trees or shrubs. It ran almost faster than the eye could follow.
04:21
I'm just sorta assuming I'll end up living in an underground concrete bunker for some reason or other.
Hard to outrun that one, let alone have time to defend anything. You can't. If you're lucky you'll have time to run. Not everyone was lucky.
Though you'd need a pretty good HVAC system to survive a wildfire.
An entire shopping center burned down. Those are not built with paper.
I wonder how concrete/bricks can burn. When you manually want to fire a brick, it's not easy.
It is not easy, no.
04:26
Maybe the other material like wooden doors, plastic items etc. "help" them burn.
Nor are hotels built with flimsy cardboard. They're virtually always built with brick. But still they burned.
@Vikas Yes, that's it: once a spark gets inside, it's all over.
Small hotels with brick, large ones with concrete and steel.
Towering infernos.
@Vikas The Federal Emergency Management Agency does not reimburse for possessions or entire properties. They provide housing assistance, sometimes loans. Funeral expenses.
Most places have insurance. Almost none has enough insurance.
And in fire-prone areas, private insurance will drop most covered policies, throwing them on some shared-cost state-run insurance-of-last-resort.
Many are expecting the total damages in this fire to exceed $300 billion, a figure beyond my mind's compass.
> “There’s no number of helicopters or trucks that we can buy, no number of firefighters that we can have, no amount of brush that we can clear that will stop this,” Eric Garcetti, then the mayor of Los Angeles, told me in 2019. “The only thing that will stop this is when the earth, probably long after we’re gone, relaxes into a more predictable weather state.”

Seven of the eight largest wildfires in California history have burned since then.
That's what I mean. You just can't do enough. It's impossible in the large.
@Vikas That is how it happens: non-organic material normally won't burn.
So bricks walls usually still stand after a fire.
They may collapse if they needed support from wood that has fallen away.
04:52
The "good" news is that, if the insurers stop covering those properties, people might finally stop building houses there. Though in this case the fires got close enough to the city proper that there may be few options.
Have they considered razing all the forests to the ground?
Or strapping fire extinguishers to all the trees?
Perhaps running a sprinkler system from the electric lines?
Maybe a religious revival would help.
What’s left standing in the burned areas are the brick chimneys. The Getty survived. It’s built of stone of various kinds, steel, maybe concrete. The roof has layers of gravel to resist embers. No foliage, no trees, just a few plants in containers inside. It’s dramatic, bleak; yet it wasn’t certain it would survive.
Climate change can’t be managed by controlling carbon emissions in any near term. So what’s left, besides adaptation, is geoengineering.
Jon Stewart just had a trenchant bit about how they're supposed to stop a fire tornado, with footage of one of yours there. These are not things that human beings can "fight", not directly.
That's in this video of his from tonight.
05:12
@Xanne Trump'll fix it, I'm sure.
05:48
@alphabet scare it into submission with tariffs.
Sad!
06:07
@M.A.R. Propose a carbon tax that only applies to companies with DEI programs.
A wind farm where any dead birds are upcycled into McNuggets.
 
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09:34
@GratefulDisciple I tried couple of those free apps. But they don't seem to have dictionaries installed by default. And free versions don't have much color customization option. Very similar to Play Book and Kindle app. Also, Moon+ free version has ads (which you can avoid for 48 hours after watching a video ad).
Which dictionary you use for Moon+ app?
BTW if you're native English speaker you might not even need it as often as me LOL
 
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11:13
[ SmokeDetector | MS ] Potentially bad keyword in username (1): Idioms in formal English‭ by Nishantb‭ on english.SE
 
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12:50
@Cerberus You're quite good. Did you do that strategy of choosing all 4 categories in advance? I didn't do that. This one is not that hard (as of early morning in the USA, 78% solve rate), but a little tricky because of multiple possibilities.
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@Vikas I don't currently use a dictionary linked to the app, have yet to find one that works well. The app DOES have a setting to link to even multiple dictionaries, though it appears that for some app the linkage doesn't work well (maybe it depends on the dictionary app itself). For now, if I don't know a word (somewhat rare) or curious about the word (sometimes), I just copy and paste the word to a browser.
@Robusto Thanks, will watch it. film noir is not a genre I often watch, though in college (part of a film appreciation course) I watched a Humphrey Bogart movie (forgot which one) and liked it.
13:34
#travle #762 +0 (Perfect)
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https://travle.earth
13:56
@Robusto I started looking at your past comments about Aristotle (I was intrigued) but rather than argue with you from those comments (i.e. about his outdated sayings, about how people quote him thoughtlessly, etc.), if you don't mind my asking: what are your key objections of using his insights about human nature?
I thought he is still relevant today (in the age of science) because (unlike Plato) he only appeals to common sense observations of how human actually act and ground his theories on how our intellect actually works (as opposed to ChatGPT), thus enabling us to modify his positions (in light of modern science) and refining his principles for today?
Or, in light of your comment below, since you seem to agree with Enlightenment thinkers, should I start with Bertrand Russell's History of Western Philosophy to see his own objections to Aristotle that you probably share?
May 3, 2012 at 1:16, by Robusto
@Mahnax: As soon as you possibly can, read Bertrand Russell's A History of Western Philosophy. Free your mind from its constraints and get an understanding of Western thought through the ages.
Mar 24, 2024 at 15:40, by Robusto
@user85795 Bertrand Russell was great. I've found his History of Western Philosophy to be a great primer that I've consulted all my life.
14:20
I hope to find some clues in the Introduction (only 10 pages) of his History, which seems to contain the questions he wants to answer in the next 800 pages as well as some hints of his own thesis that no doubt he's gonna flesh out in those 800 pages.
To his credit, he writes well. My dad (no longer living) used to be influenced by his books and essays too (in his college years), so my perusing Russell's History is a way for me to try to relive some of his wonderings that led him to abandon the church.
But I think I'm in a much better position to detect some false narratives that may lurk in those pages, esp. that I'm now a few decades older than he was and more knowledgeable about the Bible and Christianity than he was. Years ago I skimmed through Russell's book Why I am not a Christian and found his Biblical exegesis flawed (i.e. attacking strawman).
Or I may be in for a surprise. You cannot be too careful when reading philosophy, history, or theology :-)
[ SmokeDetector | MS ] Manually reported question (93): What's the meaning of "extremely happy"? ✏️‭ by Rishi‭ on english.SE
[ SmokeDetector | MS ] Blacklisted user (74): Can I say restive to mean restful?‭ by Rishi‭ on english.SE
#WhenTaken #322 (14.01.2025)

I scored 782/1000🏅

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14:42
@GratefulDisciple I don't necessarily agree with Enlightenment thinkers, though I may incline that way. I am more likely to believe that existence is a puzzle that is constantly in need of working out. It is the Sisyphean boulder we must, generation by generation, keep working at while watching it fall back to the bottom again and again.
If there's a single philosopher I resonate with, it's probably Santayana.
But even his boulder has rolled back time and again.
George Santayana (b. Jorge Agustín Nicolás Ruiz de Santayana y Borrás, December 16, 1863 – September 26, 1952) was a Spanish-American philosopher, essayist, poet, and novelist. Born in Spain, Santayana was raised and educated in the United States from the age of eight and identified as an American, yet always retained a valid Spanish passport. At the age of 48, he left his academic position at Harvard University and permanently returned to Europe; his last will was to be buried in the Spanish Pantheon in the Campo di Verano, Rome. As a philosopher, Santayana is known for aphorisms, such as "Those...
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The Last Puritan: A Memoir in the Form of a Novel is a 1935 novel by the Spanish-American philosopher George Santayana. Set largely in the fictional town of Great Falls, Connecticut, Boston, and England, in and around Oxford, it relates the life of Oliver Alden, the descendant of an old Boston family. Santayana wrote of the novel that "it gives the emotions of my experiences, and not my thoughts or experiences themselves." Alden's life demonstrates "the essential tragedy of the late-born Puritan." In the Prologue, Santayana explains that, "in Oliver puritanism worked itself out to its logical end...
14:58
#WhenTaken #322 (14.01.2025)

I scored 816/1000🏅

1️⃣📍354 m - 🗓️1 yrs - 🥇199/200
2️⃣📍2.8K km - 🗓️4 yrs - 🥈138/200
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5️⃣📍4.7K km - 🗓️12 yrs - 🥉102/200

https://whentaken.com
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Strands #317
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15:13
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Yay! Two in a row.
@jlliagre Great. I'm starting to build by streak too; today is 2.
@jlliagre Good job!
Tightrope, a daily trivia game | Britannica

Jan. 14, 2025

T I G H T R O P E
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My Score: 1610
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15:21
@GratefulDisciple Aristotle is of course extremely influential and well-regarded by most modern philosophers; his ethical views have gained a lot more widespread acceptance over the past half-century or so.
@Robusto Finished reading the Introduction. No engagement with Aristotle / Aquinas at all, apart from being completely ignored as a solution to several false dilemmas he posed in the final 2 paragraphs. So it seems he's championing a certain objective form of libertarianism and liberalism (to avoid dogmatic oppression or subjective anarchy on the other hand); need to find out exactly what he means by that.
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@alphabet Yes, virtue ethics is gaining popularity these decades, and I heard (from a Thomist) that we're in an Aristotelian renaissance. That would be a solution to Russell's false dilemmas in those 2 paragraphs.
The issue is, of course, that Aristotle is very easy to misinterpret for non-specialists; you have to read quite a lot of the surviving corpus in order to fully make sense of things.
@alphabet That goes without saying. So one usually starts with trustworthy secondary sources. But in the age of Internet, one can always start with SEP.
15:25
He uses a lot of technical terminology that his surviving works never explicitly define, and while he clearly has an overall project and consistent method, he never gives a complete explanation of it, so you have to stitch together bits and pieces from different works.
Yep, I was about to suggest the SEP article -- plato.stanford.edu/entries/aristotle
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@alphabet I'm not a specialist enough to do that, but through the secondary sources I begin to understand Aristotle's key concepts such as the 4 causes, intellect, happiness, virtues, etc.
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@GratefulDisciple I've read enough of his works in translation to have some idea, though that was long enough ago that I'm not sure I trust my memory of it.
@alphabet You're a brave man (or should I say raccoon :-) ). In my college days I foolishly tried to read Aristotle without much introduction and I didn't get much out of it.
15:32
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I don't see why one shouldn't start with lay secondary book such as Adler's Aristotle for Everybody or something more recent Aristotle: A Guide for the Perplexed.
My main problem with Aristotle is that he has a world view and thinks it is complete and perfect. He views the ideal environment for humanity as the polis, despite what may to us demonstrate its obvious imperfections. It affords the possibility of a good life for the few, and so forth.
@GratefulDisciple Fortunately I learned about him taking classes with a professor who's an expert on the subject. For the more foundational parts, we had a lot of reading assignments that were essentially collections of excerpts from different works, which helped make things make more sense.
What Should Be rather than What Is, I'd say sums it up.
Certainly Aristotle opposes the idea of a state that benefits only the few. He is certainly anti-woman and pro-slavery, though.
16:08
@alphabet that sounds like every philosopher ever
16:38
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17:00
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@Robusto Aristotle's perfect views were shattered by Pyrrho.
17:34
@alphabet Sounds like a well-designed course then (a specialist professor who guides students through excerpts of primary sources).
@alphabet I certainly don't cherish the anti-woman (I'm a staunch egalitarian) nor the pro-slavery part, nor would I take his solution of how a polis of his time would be governed (because it's not "scalable" for a country of tens to hundreds of millions). I would just take his general observation on how political participation & arrangement is connected with creating an environment for everyone to seek eudaimonia. But honestly, Aristotle's politics is the area that I am least familiar.
@Robusto So, yes, the polis doesn't work for most countries today; constitutional monarchy / constitutional democracy with 2 houses seem much better. But do you have objections about his connecting eudaimonia with virtues and with his observation of how human nature works?
The part of Aristotle that I subscribe the most is his moderate realism, thus his epistemology. Also his 4 causes operating in nature that human intellect is able to cognize & intuit.
@GratefulDisciple I think I mainly did it one category at a time, but I probably checked to make sure I had no more than four terms that fit, or I would defer entering that category and look at another.
Funnily, I have made the same puzzel again just now:
Connections
Puzzle #583
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So I didn't even remember and did worse than my first time.
@Cerberus You're getting old :-) Just kidding...
18:20
@Cerberus a fun challenge is to try to get the purple group first
18:30
@GratefulDisciple That's because he's not dead yet. :)
@GratefulDisciple So it would seem!
@MetaEd So I can imagine. But often I can't get purple and/or blue because they are about American things I do not know.
By the way, did you see this one?
@Cerberus I don't remember that one
No need to do it but if you're ever in the mood. It should be easy for you.
@Cerberus oh, this is contributed by you!
Indeed.
Anyone can make games at that site.
No need to have an account, even.
18:36
@Cerberus This is about Balrogs, isn't it.
Alas, no, it is not so strongly themed.
It's not brilliant.
But there is obviously a light touch of theme.
I was thinking about making a Balrog puzzle, but what to put in it?
@Cerberus I'm sure it's an anomaly. This morning my kid complained that I'm slow in one area but very quick to contradict, and I responded that sometimes I'm hit with a flash of brilliance.
@GratefulDisciple Haha, quick to contradict...him/her?
Dark Lord
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@Cerberus That's his perception; to me, I'm offering my view. In that age they took things personally.
18:43
@MetaEd Woohoo!
Was it easy?
@GratefulDisciple That sounds like good training for him.
18:55
@Cerberus Sure. I want to raise my family to be convinced of moderate realism to avoid falling into the pit of either sides. Also to use the current political situation as an illustration of how important it is to be objective and to fight for everything that is true, rather than being cowed into accepting lies by the powerful / skillful in misleading.
19:30
I would totally see that movie.
I would totally write the screenplay for the movie and not watch it because the director ruined my vision.
I would totally think of writing a blurb for that movie but they'd quote the part that was sarcastic for the movie poster, leading people to expect one thing but disappointly get another.
Sincerely though, there need to be more movies about the intense dramatic internal life of lexicographers and lighthouse light repairmen.
Nobody dies or even the suggestion of physical discomfort, they have a perfectly stable romantic relationship, the Starbucks barista always spells their slightly nonstandard name correctly, but eyebrows will by slightly raised when the convo turns to 'upcycle'.
@GratefulDisciple Sounds like a very good approach.
19:45
Not every story has to be about a torrid love affair or running off the top of a train as it goes over into the gorge.
I mean put those together and maybe I'll look at the running time and decide if it's too late in the evening to start watching.
I'd watch a movie that ends with the protagonist/faulty narrator hanging from a scraggly, slowly breaking branch sticking out from the side of a cliff, with a tiger pursuing him from above and a pool of alligators thrashing below, and he notices just within arms reach a strawberry growing and plucks it and pops it in his mouth and squishes the beautiful juice, realizing too late that he is horribly -horribly- allergic to strawberries.
Well, now I'm not going to watch that because I already know the ending.
I'm really good at rewatching movies lately. I hardly remember what happened the first time. Most of the time, it's like, I remember that room, someone is going to enter from the second door on the left. But I have no idea if they are good or bad.
I'm also good at faces... oh that actor played the wife of this other actor who, haha was the husband of some other actor that I saw once on some talk show who was with another actor who told a funny anecdote about... ha ha ... it's such a hilarious coincidence the director of ... oh, sorry, no I was mistaken. It was another actor.
But the point is I knew every single one of their faces, if not their names. Well, it's usually not their names, that's the thing I have trouble remembering.
> Brains adapt, and adaptation is about Kullback–Leibler divergence minimization
A -true- lexicographer would have no problem with their names.
@CowperKettle OK that makes sense, but it doesn't mean what the author of it thinks it means. It's not particularly profound despite the high buzzword ratio.
@Mitch I just saw this phrase posted by a Hadi Vafaii, so I had to look up "KL divergence"
If you don't know what K-L divergence is (well yeah you can look it up and see a definition but that doesn't say what it -means-)...
20:00
@MetaEd Ohh will try it.
Everything that is one step beyond shallow is profound.
@MetaEd OK blue was easy.
@Mitch Instructions unclear, lungs full of profundity
Are the other categories connected to the same theme as blue?
@Cerberus I expected that. People coming to it randomly might have more trouble.
20:07
Yes. Although people coming from this room, knowing that it is your puzzle...
I'm still staring at the others!
20:18
@GratefulDisciple Somewhat. At his simplest I would find little fault, but the trouble comes when he fails to see that his suppositions don't gibe with nature's oppositions:
> For we all agree that the most excellent man should rule, i.e., the supreme by nature, and that the law rules and alone is authoritative; but the law is a kind of intelligence, i.e. a discourse based on intelligence. And again, what standard do we have, what criterion of good things, that is more precise than the intelligent man?
@MetaEd drowning in a cup of water, I seize the lifesaver of...
drowning in a cup of water, I seize the lifesaver...
drowning in a cup of water, I stop drinking from the cup. It's really that simple.
I submit that the "intelligent man" has caused more desolation than anything else, and intelligence does not make one immune from evil.
> Diphylleia grayi. The beautiful “skeleton flower” that turns transparent when it rains and reverts to white when dry.
“Men are not free when they’re doing just what they like. Men are only free when they’re doing what the deepest self likes. And there is getting down to the deepest self! It takes some diving.” (SpongeBob SquarePants)
> Only the smallest sharks (220 cm or less) showed signs of the radiocarbon bomb pulse, a time marker of the early 1960s. The age ranges of prebomb sharks (reported as midpoint and extent of the 95.4% probability range) revealed the age at sexual maturity to be at least 156 ± 22 years, and the largest animal (502 cm) to be 392 ± 120 years old. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27516602
A shark that's older than the USA
20:38
@CowperKettle That's crazy!
@MetaEd Fun puzzle, thanks!
Elementally, My Dear Watson
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Though a bit hard for me haha.
Purple is really hard, like she of the NYT sometimes makes them.
Green SPOILER I lack any knowledge of so can't judge.
Yellow I think I could have got with better concentration.
By the way, about yellow, I think SPOILER, while SPOILER?
20:57
@CowperKettle KL divergence is just another 'loss' function, one that measures the 'difference between what the predictive system predicts and reality (the training data). And all (supervised) machine learning methods are algorithms that try to minimize this difference. Some loss functions are super simple, like for linear regression it is (y-y')^2 (y' is the predicted value, and y is the actual value). KL divergence is the 'difference' between two distributions (ie not just two single numbers).
So what that guy is saying in the pithy little quote is that how the brain adapts is by trying to minimize a difference (measured by the KL-divergence), ie so that the machine is as close to reality (in the training data). -and- the that is the same is 'the brain adapts'.
Elementally, My Dear Watson
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@Cerberus I still don't get purple. Thankfully it was an easy fill-in.
The latter is kind of a big leap...what he's really saying, since he is a neurologist, is that a thing called 'brain adaptation' (or behavioral learning) which he studies by experiments on clusters of neurons (he's a real scientist), is by modeling them such that the neuronal update method is like KL-divergence minimization.
@Robusto So you knew what green was about? Am I right that it is about something I know nothing about?
Which, sure, is fine, that's a justification of his research program. It's not crazy. It's just bombastic to say it like that.
About purple: SPOILER.
21:04
@Cerberus Spoiler
@Cerberus Ah, I see. I wasn't sure what the the explanation represented.
@Robusto OK, thanks, I thought so.
@Robusto Yeah I had to stare at it for a bit as well.
I would say it is similar to what She does sometimes, too; wouldn't you say?
@Cerberus Yes, but even worse I think.
Perhaps she would do one letter.
Yes.
21:31
@Cerberus OK, I took the challenge. Not sure if it's any good.
@Robusto Ohh let me see.
It's hard to foresee how hard or or easy it will be for others.
@CowperKettle I remember when I first learned that concept (KL divergence). A lot of math stuff is obscured by weird people's names (the names are weird, I don't know about the people). It gives the air of profundity which is misleading.
@Robusto I got blue!
There is a movement to replace names with more descriptive terms (eg instead of Abelian just call it what it is, commutative)
But even descriptive terms in math can be almost as empty (like a foreign language).
So the movement hasn't really caught on
Some people just like to be obscure.
looks around nervously
avoids mirror
@Mitch You're only commutative when you're not working from home.
21:53
@Robusto I got green, too. I guess I saw it early but thought maybe that couldn't be it.
@Cerberus Misdirection is part of the game. ;-)
True enough.
Now the last two.
@Robusto Good puzzle. Made 4 mistakes, though; should have guessed green sooner:
First Puzzle
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> India added 24.5 GW of solar and 3.4 GW of wind capacity in 2024, doubling solar installations and increasing wind capacity by 21% from 2023. These additions brought India’s total renewable energy capacity to 209.44 GW, with solar accounting for 47% of the total.
This is great. Even dividing by 5 to account for inconstant utilization, it's 5 GW, a whole five nuke reactors' worth of energy output.
00:00 - 22:0022:00 - 00:00

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