English Language & Usage: Multi-Layered Discourse Room

alphabet

16:01

(I assume that's how the MoD is characterizing Wagner.)

tchrist

@alphabet That.

Vikas

If it's well planned, we could see more surprises in coming days.

Or coming hours.

Cerberus

@alphabet Hmm that is interesting.

@user726941 Whom would China attack?

@alphabet China absolutely does not want chaos in Russia.

alphabet

Honestly I think that Prigozhin will either succeed in the next 12-24 hours or fail miserably. He doesn't have the capacity to resupply his forces, they're overstretched, and they're largely relying on the fact that the MoD hasn't had time to redeploy forces to Moscow yet.

Cerberus

American and Europe absolutely do not want permanent chaos in Russia either.

alphabet

16:06

"Fail miserably" being still the most likely scenario.

@Cerberus Honestly I think Biden would be OK with Russia self-destructing. You'd be exchanging one dictator for another, of course, but it'd help Ukraine quite a bit.

Vikas

@alphabet Isn't he afraid of the first outcome? He would go to jail?

user 726941

@Cerberus China will attack whoever the big business men who are running this chess game want them to attack.

alphabet

Of course, America does have a history of helping to topple dictators, then walking away as their countries go down in flames.

user 726941

^^

The same big business men who rammed coVid down our throats.

alphabet

Remember Libya? America did such a great job ending that dictatorship. Or Syria? Where the West caused a refugee crisis and then let the refugees drown in the Mediterranean?

Eh, I think in China the CCP runs the businesses, rather than the other way around. See what happened to Jack Ma.

(And I don't think Covid needed any outside assistance to enter our throats, or the rest of our respiratory tracts.)

Cerberus

16:13

@alphabet Noo absolutely not! Russia has nuclear weapons. Putin's successor, whether it be Prigozhin or someone else, may very well be less rational and show less restraint. Or it could be a long civil war with many different warlords, possessing nuclear weapons. America and Europe fear this the most, except a nuclear war against the West.

@alphabet Yes, but the current government in Washington has learned its lesson, for the time being.

@user726941 China is very stable, much less rash than Russia. It will not begin a war unless it feels it has absolutely no alternative, and even then it will plan the war for a very long time and extremely well.

@alphabet Some remarks: there was a big civil war in Libya, and Ghadaffi was threatening to genocide cities, or so the newspapers here said.

user 726941

China is a tiger with nuclear teeth now.

Cerberus

The West never invaded Syria until after ISIS had conquered large parts of it.

tchrist

@user726941 The Red russians and the White russians, the White russians and the Black russians, the Red ukrainians and the Orange ukrainians, the Red chinese and the White terror on the Green isle, the White siamese and the Red siamese, the Red indians and the Brown indians, the indian Yellow and the indigo Blue.

alphabet

@Cerberus I doubt it. I think Europe has learned this lesson, but the US? Only partially.

Cerberus

@alphabet For the time being.

The American secret service has good analysts, and the government listens.

The arrogance from the days of Bush has gone.

Or Trump...

user 726941

16:18

China will attack just to get at Trump.

They hate him.

Cerberus

Whom will China attack?

user 726941

Democracy.

Mitch

Borscht

tchrist

Yet the Trumpists shall endure. Igual como sobrevivieron los peronistas a Perón mismo.

Mitch

I expect borscht to be much better that it usually is

user 726941

16:21

📣

Mitch

I expect it to be like potato-leek soup but red

user 726941

📯

Mitch

And things can only get better with sour cream on top

But it's too sweet

tchrist

Lemonade with sour cream?

user 726941

Don't be so sour.

📯📯📯

Mitch

16:23

But...

Less added sugar doesn't necessarily improve it

It's a quandary

Or a conundrum

tchrist

With Meyer lemons it is perfectly wrought.

Mitch

Not really an enigma or mystery

@tchrist oh?

user 726941

You can catch more flies with honey than vinegar.

Mitch

What's a Meyer lemon?

tchrist

offs

I'm a programmer, not a google.

2

user 726941

16:25

LMGTFY

Cerberus

@CowperKettle Chat GPT made Bing hang every time I tried to get it to translate this article into Dutch.

So I had to close the tab.

When I asked it to translate into English, it says it does so, but instead it gives a kind of summary.

tchrist

meyer lemon = citron × mandarin

normal lemon = citron × key lime

user 726941

Too many variables.

Mitch

I've never seen a Mayer lemon in a grocery store. Must be exotic (for the US)

tchrist

@Mitch Child, go to a real grocery store. Every store in my small village carries them.

Everywhere from Whole Foods to King Soopers.

user 726941

16:28

Sweet child of mine.

Where do we go now?

tchrist

Alan Parsons Project Games People Play With Lyrics HD

►

user 726941

Guns N' Roses - Sweet Child O' Mine (Official Music Video)

►

alphabet

@tchrist Idk, I just head straight for the milk aisle.

Mitch

Maybe a beet and potato and leek soup would do it

Only a little sweetness from the beets and thickened up by the rest

Beet and leek?

Beet and potato (and heavy cream)

And nutmeg?

Maybe I should go back to Flamin Hot Cheetos

Vikas

> A senior European security official said that while the level of animosity between Wagner and Russia’s military command had long seemed untenable, there were no recent signals that Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin was plotting a rebellion.

> The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation, said many Western intelligence analysts had until recently regarded “scenarios of civil war or other collapse as ungrounded fantasies.” There was speculation about Prigozhin’s intentions, the official said, but nothing to suggest “a military coup scenario.”

washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/24/…

Cerberus

16:44

That was also my impression.

Also because it seems like a lost cause.

But Prigozhin is less rational and planned than Putin.

He doesn't seem to be in control of his emotions.

tchrist

Not since October of 2021 has Moscow gone on partial lockdown.

Cerberus

Napoleon conquered Moscow.

Didn't do him much good.

tchrist

One's rationale can be wrong.

Putin's was.

Cerberus

I don't see how Prigozhin could prevail unless large parts of the Russian army and/or police decided to join his cause.

Admittedly, supply lines are incredibly much easier to set up now than around 1800.

tchrist

Me neither, but he must also have made this calculation.

Cerberus

16:51

Yes, so one would think.

Unless he is just too angry and irrational.

And megalomaniac.

Perhaps America and China could march on Moscow to protect Putin.

tchrist

How has Prigozhin's legion advanced almost 800 miles in not quite 24 hours? No resistance?

Also: Google is now routing around the road closures.

Vikas

Some people on Reddit commenting like maybe Putin still hopes for negotiations that's why not stopping them harshly.

Laurel

I was surprised that Google would say to take the same route that had a bunch of rogue criminals on it

tchrist

@Vikas From his fortress of solitude whither he has fled?

@Cerberus And everyone under his command?

@Cerberus The sea ice is gone from the Bering Strait.

Cerberus

@tchrist I also wonder with how many men he has made that advance.

@tchrist Prigozhin will be glad.

@tchrist Yeah I don't know how that works. I suspect he is a more tyrannical and inspiring leader than Putin, more like Caesar?

@tchrist Use boats.

Or march from Poland.

tchrist

17:02

Am I merely imagining or misremembering Prigozhin threatening to join Zelenskyy at once point in the past few months when his frustrations about Shoigu were boiling over? Or that the two had talked?

Cerberus

He had approached Ukraine, yes, in secret.

Or so the Ukrainians said.

But they refused him.

Although I think it wasn't exactly joining, but just helping Ukraine against certain brigades of the Russian army in certain locations.

tchrist

@Cerberus Prigozhin's executions with a sledgehammer are more visually upsetting than are Putin’s with novichok or polonium.

Cerberus

@tchrist Exactly.

Putin is all about self-control. Prigozhin is the opposite.

Which is also why he must not win.

tchrist

Nor Kadyrov.

It's impossible for Prigozhin to win. After all, Putin can always just nuke Moscow.

Pretty sure that's his argument against Zelenskyy winning, mutatis mutandis.

Vikas

> Wagner mercenaries have been promised an amnesty if they lay down their weapons but they need to act fast, Russia’s state-owned TASS news agency has cited a lawmaker as saying.

tchrist

17:12

Yeah, sure.

Cerberus

@tchrist I think he is even worse.

tchrist

@Cerberus As do I.

Cerberus

@tchrist Putin wouldn't.

Besides, if Prigozhin should 'win', I think he'd need to control large parts of the Russian army as well.

So would Putin after that fact still be able to launch atomics?

tchrist

No matter the outcome, everything has changed and nothing will be the same again.

Cerberus

We shall see.

tchrist

17:14

In Russia.

Cerberus

Changed since yesterday?

Or since 2021?

alphabet

@tchrist Not really. People tend to overestimate the effects of nuclear weapons on a widely dispersed army, and there's no way Putin stays in power after killing millions of Muscovite civilians.

tchrist

@Cerberus That's what the commentariat is saying.

Cerberus

Perhaps Prigozhin will be eliminated quickly.

Putin MUST have made plans.

The FSB hates Prigozhin.

tchrist

@alphabet I am seldom one to emoticonize my humor.

Cerberus

17:16

If there is anything Putin loves, it's planning.

tchrist

@Cerberus Hence his "flight for life" escape.

Cerberus

That is of course one part of elaborate plans.

But he must have made plans to eliminate Prigozhin in the case of a rebellion.

Why does "in the case of" sound odd here?

tchrist

How, by having long ago infiltrated his sous chefs?

Cerberus

Haha.

tchrist

@Cerberus Two articles too many.

Vikas

17:19

Plan is already made. Free fall from windows. The goal to achieve is how to execute it.

Cerberus

@tchrist Hmm yes, I suppose that works, in case of rebellion.

@tchrist By infiltrating Wagner, yes, and also by having military defences in place, and assassins, etc.

Together, the FSB and the GRU can think up many things.

tchrist

They will not have already had a sniper in place.

Or this would have been over by now.

They do have defences in place around and within Moscow.

Including electronic ones.

Cerberus

@tchrist Not in place, but ready to be sent, watching for an opportunity.

@tchrist Exactly.

I suspect people outside Wagner won't be loyal to it at all.

So I wouldn't expect easy defections. But I could be wrong.

alphabet

IMHO Putin is extremely unlikely to use nuclear weapons against Moscow. It would not actually help his situation overall.

Cerberus

Tchrist was joking.

Putin would never nuke Moscow.

Not even if it did help.

alphabet

17:25

Ah sorry I was confused.

Cerberus

Only someone like Hitler or IS would.

Which is why the Russian army must never be controlled by some lunatic.

Vikas

Prigozhin needs a yacht.

alphabet

My current predictions: MoD stops Wagner from reaching Moscow, but Wagner will get quite close to the city before that happens. MoD takes quite a while to regain control of Rostov. Ukraine benefits in the long run, since this disrupts Russia's war machine, but there's no sudden breakthrough in their counteroffensive. Prigozhin doesn't change sides but tacitly accepts some level of Ukrainian support.

Anyway, could be totally wrong, but that's my best guess.

Cerberus

@alphabet This may be true. Except the last part: I cannot see how Putin would allow Prigozhin to stay in power. His government would revolt.

And so, if he offered amnesty to Prigozhin himself, everyone would know it was a ruse.

alphabet

@Cerberus I don't mean that Prigozhin will side with the MoD. I mean that he won't explicitly side with Ukraine and start fighting with or for them. He may quietly accept some level of support from them, but he'd never openly endorse the Ukrainian cause.

I suspect Ukraine would gladly (semi-secretly) give Prigozhin some money or weapons or intelligence to help him hold onto Rostov and keep stirring up trouble. But I don't think Prigozhin would suddenly become an actual ally of Ukraine's.

The main issue is that Rostov is the headquarters of the Southern Military District, and thus key to supplying forces in Ukraine. So Russia will need to reroute things.

Cerberus

17:53

@alphabet Umm I don't see how there can be a a Prigozhin after this, once Putin has depowered Wagner one way or another.

alphabet

Wait wtf??

Prigozhin just said:

> They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That’s why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan

So...he's just giving up? Ok, ignore my predictions, this is too crazy for me

Cerberus

Oh, interesting.

I couldn't imagine why he'd seriously want to march on Moscow.

alphabet

@Cerberus I think he can survive if he holds on to Rostov and is juuust useful enough to the Ukrainians.

But never mind, I will stop making predictions.

Cerberus

If this wasn't all a play acted out by Putin and Prigozhin together, and if Prigozhin had actually attacked the Russian army en masse, I don't see how Putin could have allowed Prigozhin to stay in power anywhere within Russia, except for the time it took him to amass forces against Prigozhin.

@alphabet OK if Prigozhin rally switched sides to Ukraine enough that it benefited Ukraine...but even then, Ukraine will never trust him. They will not seriously coöperate with him.

Noöne trusts Prigozhin, as one rightly never trusts mercenaries.

alphabet

Prigozhin's claim that things were going "according to the plan" is utterly ridiculous

Worst coup attempt ever. 0/10

Vikas

18:01

What an idiot 😂

Looks like Putin ordered a yacht for him.

alphabet

Supposedly Lukashenko helped deescalate things.

Robusto

@Cerberus Since both parties' names begin with P your narrative can be a bit hard to follow.

Cerberus

@Robusto Haha, yikes, hadn't realised that. It is Prigozhin I find hard to type.

alphabet

Imma just call him "Prigz"

Robusto

@Cerberus ^_^

Cerberus

18:08

@alphabet That is always how dictators and 'honour' men describe their acts, without fail.

alphabet

So where's Prigz going now? Just hanging out in Rostov until the army shows up?

CowperKettle

@alphabet It's a goodwill gesture

Cerberus

@alphabet I wonder about that as well.

@CowperKettle But, in the end, surely Prigozhin will not have any goodwill left now?

alphabet

Will his tank convoy even make it all the way back?

Honestly, this decision makes no sense to me. Prigz seems to have gotten himself into an impossible situation. (Yes I'll keep calling him that.)

Robusto

Texas governor signs bill rescinding water breaks as deadly heat grips state Sure, more construction workers may die of heat stroke, but that's nothing compared to the several dollars it costs Big Business to keep them alive!

Cerberus

18:18

@alphabet Yeah though I thought he already had...

Robusto

@alphabet This is 1917 all over again. First symptom? The revolt of the Czar's troops in WWI.

Cerberus

@Robusto Putin has said the same thing.

Robusto

No wonder he's fearful.

If he's the one drawing parallels, think who he becomes in that scenario.

alphabet

@Cerberus But this can really only make things worse for him, no?

Cerberus

@alphabet I don't know! At the very least, I can't see how this might result in a tenable situation for Prigozhin.

CowperKettle

18:21

@Robusto It was a reenactment of the Kornilov Coup

Cerberus

Unless all this is some elaborate ruse manufactured by Putin and Prigozhin together.

CowperKettle

Kornilov affair

The Kornilov affair, or the Kornilov putsch, was an attempted military coup d'état by the commander-in-chief of the Russian Army, General Lavr Kornilov, from 10–13 September 1917 (O.S., 27–30 August), against the Russian Provisional Government headed by Aleksander Kerensky and the Petrograd Soviet of Soldiers' and Workers' Deputies. The exact details and motivations of the Kornilov affair are unconfirmed due to the general confusion of all parties involved. Many historians have had to piece together varied historical accounts as a result. == Background == Following the "February Revolution" of...

alphabet

Anyway, now Girkin gets to spend all day telling people "I told you so"

CowperKettle

Prigozhin will be arrested an jailed. He will then enroll into Wagner Group from jail, and serve his way up from a soldier to the leader of Wagner Group.

2

Cerberus

Smart plan.

tchrist

19:02

@alphabet Brigz < Pricks

s.H.a.R.p.R.i.F.t

Maybe they needed to know who was still faithful to the caporegime while enabling scapegoating of the military leaders who didn't succeed, to prepare for their removal, while luring Ukraine into showing its cards on the battlefield. Maybe this signals Belarus will play a greater role.

alphabet

@tchrist "Pricks" would be ambiguous

tchrist

@alphabet Grand prix.

alphabet

Wagner fighters are leaving Rostov and going back to Ukraine, according to Michael Kofman's twitter feed

Wow this was a really committed work of performance art

Apparently Wagner supporters on Telegram are now furious

I am mystified. I mean, I doubt this was all an act. But it also makes zero sense.

tchrist

Casualty count?

alphabet

19:15

Just wanted a fun-filled parade?

Trying to annoy the street cleaners?

The only possibly sensible reason for doing this would be to get Ukraine to launch a counteroffensive prematurely. But staging a coup against himself would be wacky even by Putin standards.

We'll see what happens to Prigz now. Does he think MoD troops are just going to go back to work with Wagner ones?

tchrist

@alphabet Hasn't simmered long enough. What's Zelenskyy going to do, invade Rostov instead of Crimea?

alphabet

@tchrist Indeed.

Also: how is Prigz, having insulted the war and called it a ridiculous product of oligarchs, going to go back to fighting in it?

s.H.a.R.p.R.i.F.t

Maybe they needed metrics to see if the propaganda still holds, or if the ideas that this was just to bolster some generals and there was no reason to invade are taking hold?

A big experiment.

alphabet

Possibly an attempt to make potential traitors out themselves, but it seems far too self-destructive for Putin to stage.

Of course, even if Putin says it was staged, people might think he's just pretending it was staged to preserve his reputation.

s.H.a.R.p.R.i.F.t

19:41

I read that this Wagner guy is not so well known by the general public in Russia, strangely. We know brainwashing, disinformation and propaganda works. How many people seized this opportunity to go and protest in front of the Kremlin or the Douma? I believe the general public has been made subservient and fear helps with that. I don't believe reputation is meaningful in this context. I believe this act was for another target audience. We will see.

Or maybe this brokered deal is just a front and a pause and this will unfold very quickly.

That these 2 would use their people to achieve their personal objectives wouldn't surprise me in the least.

They're both butchers.

Cerberus

20:25

I don't understand it either.

jlliagre

Wordle 735 3/6

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Daily Quordle 516
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alphabet

From Michael Kofman:

> Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov:
> – charges dropped against Prigozhin, who will leave Russia for Belarus
> – Wagner fighters who didn't take part in the uprising will sign contracts with the MOD
> – Wagner fighters who did take part not charged
> – No word on potential MOD leadership changes

Ok, this is incredibly suspicious and utterly bizarre

Cerberus

Quite.

I mean, if Prigozhin has agreed with these terms, why did he begin the 'rebellion' in the first place?

alphabet

Honestly, this almost does make it sound like it was staged, a way of ferreting out which Wagner soldiers were anti-Putin, while giving Prigozhin himself an out.

While also disbanding Wagner and getting Prigz out of power.

Cerberus

Yeah, but that is also very weird.

And not great for Putin's reputation in Russia.

On the other hand, if it was real, I'm very much surprised Putin didn't see it coming and didn't prepare for it better.

alphabet

20:30

On the other hand, it could be that the threat of a civil war was so bad that it forced Putin to agree to these terms, while Prigozhin was willing to agree since he knew that he was losing.

Cerberus

If Prigozhin knew he would lose, which is what I, too expected: why did he rebel at all?

jlliagre

Maybe did Putin and Prigz both ask ChatGPT how to fix the mess and now follow its wise advice.

alphabet

This does sound like an oddly convenient outcome that resolves things for both parties, disbanding Wagner while forestalling an uprising of Wagner troops against Putin.

jlliagre

Daily Octordle #516
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alphabet

Also surprisingly convenient that Lukashenko happened to offer this perfectly ideal peace agreement in the middle of a coup and that it was accepted.

If this was all fake, I want to congratulate the FSB for successfully hoodwinking me. At least I'm not alone in being fooled.

tchrist

20:39

@alphabet You would dare question the brilliant statesmanship of a well-reined toad?

Cerberus

@alphabet Yeah I smell some dust of fakeness.

tchrist

I wonder how they can tell which ones "took part", and which did not.

alphabet

When was the last time you saw a random world leader offer a peace agreement in the middle of a coup and it...worked?

Cerberus

@tchrist They mostly can't, I assume. They will just consider anyone not guilty unless there is some egregious evidence?

@alphabet *within 24 hours

alphabet

Igor Girkin is saying that effectively Putin has been deposed, since he gave in to Prigz's demands and is now acting like his subordinate.

Cerberus

20:43

I can make heads nor tail of this.

alphabet

The Girk's latest post, translated via ChatGPT:

> I certainly understand that I am a toxic product of past eras... But in those past eras, there was no such disgusting mess. It was simpler back then. They fought, hated, and battled for real... And there were generally far fewer corpses from those "real-deal" fights. Scoundrels were called scoundrels, bandits and traitors were not granted amnesty, they were hanged, and overall... it was a wild time...

Cerberus

@alphabet Perhaps Gurkin will try next...

alphabet

First: accurate observation about yourself, 'Girk.

tchrist

@alphabet Coups seldom fail for reasons of unaligned diplomats; purges even less often.

alphabet

Second: apparently Girkin himself seems to think that this wasn't quite real.

Third: he thinks that Prigz got out of this too easily.

Cerberus

20:44

Yeah.

tchrist

List who gained what.

alphabet

Anyway the whole incredibly convenient peace agreement has me thinking that this was staged. But if so, it was a truly magnificent performance. Congrats to Prigz & Putin for their excellent acting skills.

Cerberus

If it was fake, wasn't this harmful for Putin's authority?

tchrist

Red Russians moving to White Russia Russians remain.

alphabet

Putin got: Wagner is disbanded; their troops won't revolt against the MoD, which could have happened if they'd been disbanded earlier; Prigz will lose power while not being martyred.

tchrist

20:47

Those are not two different countries, as Putin shall surely soon enough attest.

alphabet

Prigz got: no jail time (which seemed inevitable regardless of how this happened); no blame for getting his soldiers jailed either; a chance to live in the most Russia-friendly country on earth without being under Putin's thumb.

tchrist

Why did Putin not declare him a traitor by name?

Why withhold the name?

alphabet

As is usual, Girkin is complaining about how dumb the whole situation is:

> I am reluctantly forced to admit that Russia has come one step closer to its final and irreversible demise.

This was a great way to get rid of Wagner, while integrating Wagner troops into the MoD rather than having them start an insurrection.

Cerberus

What I don't understand is why Prigozhin began this, and why he let it end like this.

tchrist

No guarantees of that.

alphabet

20:51

But I'm not convinced it was staged, of course. It seems utterly insane even by Putin standards.

Cerberus

I still can't believe the army would not have fought Prigozhin, between Rostov and Moscow, if it was real.

The leaders of the army hate Prigozhin.

Unless Putin decidedly ordered them back.

Which sounds...fake.

Vikas

I can't believe the story that Belarus president made deal with Prigozhin.

alphabet

Lukashenko ex machina

Cerberus

It all sounds a bit like Musk's vacuum trains.

It just doesn't really make sense.

Xanne

I would think it’s a face-off between Prigozhin and Shuigo

alphabet

21:06

@Cerberus Also, as some pointed out: the troops heading towards Moscow were mostly fast-moving vehicles rather than tanks or artillery, which would be needed to take the city.

Xanne

And Shuigo won. He gets to take over the Wagner-recruited troops. Prig spends last days in Belarus.

Cerberus

@alphabet Yeah of course a real siege would take far longer to begin.

@Xanne *Shoigu

alphabet

@Xanne Exactly. In the only country that would possibly take him in at this point.

Cerberus

@Xanne He has many days yet to live.

And what will happen to the large Wagner departments all over Africa and elsewhere?

alphabet

22:07

Looks like we're due for a week of excellent Boston weather: 80 degrees and thunderstorms with 80-90% humidity.

CowperKettle

22:17

Wagner Group moved out of the center of Rostov, and police moved in. A bunch of local men surrounded police cars, one of waving a Wagner banner, and were chanting "Shame!". O_O

alphabet

@CowperKettle So, do you think it was staged? An attempt to seek attention gone wrong? An attempted coup?

CowperKettle

No, it wasn't staged

It's just curious that there were some supporters of Wagner among citizens

alphabet

Ok. We were speculating about this. Lukashenko's intervention seems improbably well-timed and successful.

I was talking about the whole course of events, not just the video you sent.

Cerberus

@CowperKettle I think you are saying the people in Rostov weren't staged? But I think Alphabet was talking about the whole Wagner rebellion?

alphabet

22:50

The Atlantic has a decent take on this that makes it sound (a) not staged but (b) a show of force more than an attempted insurrection: theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/06/…

Most of The Experts seem to think that this wasn't staged. I should probably put away my fun conspiracy theories.

Cerberus

23:07

@alphabet Thanks, will look.

A show of force: but why would Putin accept that, one wonders.

Laurel

I'm disappointed they didn't make it to Moscow. I heard that all you need to enter a capital building is a spear-tipped flagpole, a bullhorn, and a ridiculous costume (including face paint)

CowperKettle

> "The mercenary captains are either capable men or they are not; if they are, you cannot trust them, because they always aspire to their own greatness, either by oppressing you, who are their master, or others contrary to your intentions; but if the captain is not skilful, you are ruined in the usual way." (Chapter 12)

alphabet

23:34

@Cerberus I think the theory was that Putin might actually side with Prigz, or at least listen to his long list of grievances and demands.

@Laurel Works a bit better if you have a tank or two, of course.

CowperKettle

Trillion-dollar coin

The trillion-dollar coin is a concept that emerged during the United States debt-ceiling crisis of 2011 as a proposed way to bypass any necessity for the United States Congress to raise the country's borrowing limit, through the minting of very high-value platinum coins. The concept gained more mainstream attention by late 2012 during the debates over the United States fiscal cliff negotiations and renewed debt-ceiling discussions. After reaching the headlines during the week of January 7, 2013, use of the trillion-dollar coin concept was ultimately rejected by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury...

alphabet

Of course, only the US can lead a proper coup.

tchrist

US Officials may have been expecting Prigz to pull this.

> Senior American national security officials had indications as early as Wednesday that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, was preparing to take military action against senior Russian defense officials, according to officials briefed on the intelligence.

Cerberus

@alphabet Prigozhin's theory? That Putin would do as he was told under threat?

alphabet

@Cerberus And that lots of top-level officials would side with Prigz instead of Shoigu

Cerberus

23:40

@alphabet And instead of Putin?

alphabet

@Cerberus Well, and that Putin wouldn't side so solidly with Shoigu

Cerberus

Perhaps Prigozhin knew more about that chance than I do...but I wouldn't expect that?

alphabet

@Cerberus Yeah, his plan still doesn't really make sense.

Cerberus

@alphabet Putin wouldn't side with his own cabinet, when being publicly and militarily threatened by his main rival for power in Russia?

alphabet

@Cerberus In theory a lot of his cabinet & even military would side with Prigz, so it'd just be Shoigu who was isolated.

Cerberus

23:42

What theory is that?

alphabet

Obviously an incredibly overoptimistic one.

Still doesn't really make sense to me.

Cerberus

I would expect most people at the ministry and in the upper ranks of the army to dislike Prigozhin?

@alphabet Perhaps Prigozhin knew more than we do?

alphabet

@Cerberus Also: one Russian general (Sergey Surovikin) is (in theory) ultra-close to Wagner, and might reasonably have been expected to support Prigz. Didn't work out that way.

People do seem to agree that Prigz must have spent months planning this operation. Even if this was all a show, it would have taken an immense effort to plan.

Cerberus

@alphabet Yeah, I don't know, I wouldn't have expected that. Wagner is a direct competitor of the Russian army. They only work with it because they are forced to, by Putin.

alphabet

@Cerberus It's actually kind of the opposite, as I understand it; Putin was forced to rely on them even though Wagner is technically illegal in Russia.

Cerberus

23:46

The fact that Prigozhin praised Surovikin doesn't make him all separate from his military hierarchy and way of thinking and social structure, I would expect.

alphabet

Indeed. Still doesn't make sense

Cerberus

@alphabet Those two don't exclude each other?

alphabet

@Cerberus They have a complicated relationship. Frenemies, I suppose.

Cerberus

Putin was a bit desperate and hoped that Wagner could help bring victory in Ukraine, so he forced the army to work with Wagner, even as both organisations were competing with each other at the same time.

alphabet

Secret lovers, according to the fan fiction.

Cerberus

23:48

Heh I didn't mean people but possibilities.

alphabet

@Cerberus Ah yeah I think we're saying the same thing.

Cerberus

Right.

So there was no love between Wagner and the regular army.

alphabet

Prigz also seems to think that he's way better than the MoD, since He Had To Take Bakhmut All By Himself.

Cerberus

He does.

And he may be.

alphabet

One theory is that Prigz lied about lacking ammunition, and that he was actually saving up ammunition for this event.

Cerberus

23:51

Surely one cannot hide such a thing.

alphabet

Eh, Wagner's strategy was mostly: recruit a bunch of prison inmates and throw them forward in waves until they break through. It worked eventually, but it wasn't exactly a display of tactical genius.

Cerberus

That was only part of what they did.

Before the prisoners, they were relatively effective in the war.

alphabet

Hmm idk.

Cerberus

Wagner is far less bureaucratic than the army, I believe.

And more motivated.

And perhaps better trained.

alphabet

The army has the tanks. Most of them, at least.

Xanne

23:54

Shoigu. Thank you. The main beneficiary, along with Gerasimov, the pro in the mix.

alphabet

And people with actual training.

I'm not sure this really helps Shoigu much, except that he won't have Wagnerites killing him.

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