@Mitch I think a decade is too short to see any effects you call longterm. I think longer periods are actually more predictable, because, I think, a hundred years from now humanity would still not have achieved bigger tools of destruction than we already have, but life would surely have gotten better.

A decade is a good point of comparison when it involves some world-changing discovery or invention

Also, "better" and "worse" are vague terms if you don't select criteria to be judged.

The Internet has been getting more robust each decade. Climate change has been getting comparably worse.

@Robusto well, the overall difference becomes pretty clear if enough time passes

@M.A.R. What overall difference?

And how much time?

Do things always improve or deteriorate, without variation?

@Robusto I can easily think of a dozen ways my life is better than an Iranian with my social standing a century ago. About how it's gotten worse, a couple reasons come to mind, but I'd be hard-pressed to find more criteria. That's gotta count for something

@Robusto I was thinking more than half a century, at least.

Like the Greeks said, "Count no man happy until he is dead; at best he is merely fortunate."

Right now an invasion is going on, but overall I think active conflicts and their civilian casualties have decreased since, say, 1970s

Or, I dunno, life expectancy has increased dramatically

For some.

Poverty may have changed a bit, I dunno the stats on that

For others, not so much.

@Robusto well I think it's only fair to say things are better if they're better for eight people out of ten.

Where do you get that number?

Nowhere

I get that you are a meliorist. But I don't think it's possible to have any good numbers from any of this. At most you can have a feeling about it all.

Okay, I'm sure Africa has more infrastructure and clean water than 50 years ago. Fewer civil wars, maybe. Same for Asia

But, say, since 2012, not much has changed I suppose, and many criteria have worsened.

@Robusto well okay, I'm fairly certain most people play melior if we're talking about a 50-year gap. It's all vague and in our heads, but wouldn't most people hold the same impression?

Everyone has a different viewpoint, depending on their particular circumstances.

All I'm saying is that you have to rigorously define your criteria for bettering/worsening.

Well I was trying to dissociate the personal aspects from that. I dunno how successful I am of course

So hanging in the balance of all this are the existential threats of climate change and nuclear conflagration.

RIP Ray Liotta

@M.A.R. got it. Cerb thinks the same (decade too short for most prediction)

@M.A.R. that's the thesis stated by Steven Pinker plus he has data to support it. But he's gotten a lot of push back (presumably by by people who think he's trying to support current conservative policies (which is not the case).

Also China really has reduced poverty by a considerable amount and that affects do many people for the better (arguably).

@M.A.R. yeah a lot lower infant death in Africa over the past 50 years

@M.A.R. yeah.but I think locally (US) see a big degradation in (very vague) democratic principles and I know this is first world problems but it is no trivially concerning.

I'm not saying civil war, but authoritarians installing themselves in US gov.

Which globally could matter because the US is currently so important

@Mitch I know you're trying to meet me at the other end but I wouldn't call democracy a 1st world issue. Rather, something that very subtly impacts a lot of tangible things, which is why it's a useful indicator of progress.

@Mitch it's safe to say that globally, the altright has been on the rise, isn't it?

@tchrist math appreciation? Goedel? What am I looking at?

Hey @Cesar! Welcome to ELU chat!

Well, okay, I think it's pretty obvious that, since, say, 2000, bad things have resumed, while overall there probably hasn't been many good things happening. Part of it is because, at least in science, I think we've stopped discovering the new things we've been discovering and have instead focused on expanding them and helping technology catch up. It's not as glorious as sending people to the moon or eraducating smallpox but it's probably just as important.

@tchrist What surprises you?

Every new technology in pharmaceutical and medical sciences that I can recall is at an early stage where we're too inexperienced to translate science into something everyone can benefit from

For many of them, the hype will die down, of course.

As for physics, I have no idea what they're doing. Watching gravtational waves and reaffirming relativity for the 300th time?

@Robusto !

I got lucky.

Took a chance and it paid off.