I have one last question before bed: it was not only Putin, but every single 'expert' in newspapers, including those from 'renowned' military research institutes, who said that Putin would quickly overrun Ukrainian forces.

@Cerberus right must be a problem for those with lung issues, asthma etc ..

> A week ago, the influential Institute of the Study of War, a US thinktank tracking the fighting, had thought that an encirclement of the capital could be achieved within “24 to 96 hours” – but the events of recent days have prompted it to change its mind.

Even a week ago still.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 for English flags.

@M__ They are actually in rain drops here.

@Cerberus So many wrong predictions.

So I don't think it is a problem.

@tchrist Yes.

it might be for the time ...

And all 'experts' predicted that Putin would not invade Ukraine big time.

like it must be early for you

If they were all wrong, what does that say?

They made only two mistakes.

@Cerberus wishful thinking

The first is that they overestimated the Russians. The second, that they underestimated the Ukrainians. But we forgot how poor Russia is.

@M__ The opposite, rather.

@tchrist Who could forget that?

Everyone knows the Russian military budget is fairly small.

They can't even afford to give their pilots enough hours in the sky to keep them sharp.

And their kit is all mothballed from forever ago.

@Cerberus okay not Spain ... that's what I was thinking

kit=equipment

@Cerberus large nuclear arsenals are not cheap

It's not that they don't HAVE any of the fancy non-nuclear stuff. They just don't have much of it, is all.

Because of how expensive it is.

How embarrassing to have to go begging to China.

@tchrist I wouldn't like to underestimate Russia's capacity, they are supposed to have good rockets (I ain't a rocket scientist BTW)

@M__ Always safer to err on the side of caution.

This is a drastic lack of preparation, is what it is.

Reference to the above.

Personally, I find it deeply scary besides a humanitarian crisis, a tragedy and disaster

@M__ Like this: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege#Offensive

> The most common practice of siege warfare was to lay siege and just wait for the surrender of the enemies inside or, quite commonly, to coerce someone inside to betray the fortification. During the medieval period, negotiations would frequently take place during the early part of the siege.

> An attacker – aware of a prolonged siege's great cost in time, money, and lives – might offer generous terms to a defender who surrendered quickly. The defending troops would be allowed to march away unharmed, often retaining their weapons.

@M__ Yes. The world sleeps less well now than before.

@JJJ thanks yes I clicked the link - I am now more educated

So why did everyone who claimed expertise on matters military, including renowned research institutes, grossly misunderstand the situation?

> “The biggest problem is that [Russia] didn’t organize a proper military operation,” Kofman said. “They thought they were just going to drive in and they weren’t going to get a fight. That led to a lot of disasters because they didn’t plan.”

It's just not what I'd have expected.

@tchrist a lot less sleep and I'm far, far away

@tchrist Experts ought to take all that into account.

Because they thought the Russians would have "done their homework" and prepped properly.

But they didn't.

But why did they think that?

Because you don't just walk into Mordor.

@tchrist another 'expert' sthey have a great track-record on this one

You make provisions.

It suggests to me that they pretended to understand the Russian and Ukrainian armies much better than they really did.

@tchrist well Frodo did, but I'm not quite sure why this is relevant

@Cerberus Where "they" includes Putin himself, apparently,

A bit like people who predict...the stock market: you should never believe them.

@tchrist Yes.

But that is a very strange thing. How could it have come to pass? Dictatorship bubble of happy thinking?

But, if you really don't have nearly enough information, you should not present your thoughts as quite so certain.

@Cerberus you could be right, no one predicts the downturn when everyone knows a downturn is due ... don't want to spook anyone

@tchrist It is not so strange for dictators to make mistakes.

that's true

They are no 'renowned military research institutes'.

Many somebodies must have been feeding him wrong information.

Besides, dictators will take their chances even when they aren't sure it will work.

that's true as well ... no one to be held accountable to

Many things you just cannot very sure about. So don't be.

Of course everyone makes mistakes.

we don't know how this is all going to end

Never do.

But, when a profession makes a mistake collectively...

so perhaps speak too optimistically

It could be the end of Russia, the end of Ukraine, the end of the world, or none of the above.

sorry typo I meant so perhaps lets not speak too optimistically

It will get worse before it gets better.

That I'm convinced of.

Just say, the strengths of each side are thus and so, but it will be very hard to predict whether the war will take hours or months, nor who will win, and to what extent. When you're not sure what will happen.

it may not get better is what I'm implying

Because Putin will become more desperate.

Atrocities will increase.

that I'm certain of

And nothing anybody can do can stop them.

Let's hope he will soon accept the agreement and a ceasefire.

the Russian military is cruel to its own ... first hand account

It feels like the world is powerless against these.

no doubt very cruel to others

@tchrist right

@M__ Horrible way to build loyalty.

> Russian forces appear to have been proven unable to cross the Irpin River, which runs along the western edge of the city – and the invaders remain 20km or more from the city centre, ruling out the cruel use of short-range artillery against the population that has proved so damaging in the eastern cities of Mariupol and Kharkiv.

@Cerberus I am not optimistic at all. I hope I'm wrong

Yes.

@Cerberus Their only chance to "win" Kiev is to obliterate it?

@Cerberus good info. As a pessimist on this one, the first causality of war is truth.

@M__ Pravda is still going strong though.

@tchrist Or starve it, I should think.

Or flood it with chemical weapons, would that work on a large scale against prepared defenders?

The only "truth" allowed in Russia now is lies.

@tchrist interesting, so like there was never any truth even without war

@M__ There was. There used to be non-state media.

Now, it's basically illegal.

@M__ This was from the Guardian.

Okay, I'm out of my depth

Wow cool

@Cerberus seems a long time since I read it.

Latest Guardian "Russia and Ukraine ‘close to agreeing’ on neutral status, says Sergei Lavrov"

> Russian forces have released the mayor of the Ukrainian city of Melitopol, the Ukrainian president said. Ukraine’s state services for communications shared a video showing Zelenskiy speaking to Ivan Fedorov following his release. The president said Fedorov was abducted by Russian forces on 11 March who tried to persuade him to collaborate but “our man withstood. He did not give up.”

So he was released, not liberated.

@M__ Here

@M__ Everything Lavrov says is a lie.

Yeah I kinda don't really trust anyone on this one, but the Guardian does have kudos

@tchrist reading it

Going to bed.

@tchrist thanks for the chat ... I better get back to work

> And Ukraine will want to have ironclad security guarantees, probably ensured by the west, as fears remain that Russia could use any ceasefire as an excuse to resupply its troops before continuing its onslaught.

This is also an issue that troubled me.

The ceasefire would need to include a provision saying that Russia cannot drive any new vehicles into Ukraine, or something, which Russia will not accept.

yes, on this one there will be so many military satellites on the Ukraine right now, the slightest breach will spotted quite literally from space

.. not that we would have access to the information nor the Guardian

I wonder how up to date Google maps are?

anyway I need to finish work then head to bed too. Thanks @Cerberus @tchrist @JJJ very interesting chat

@M__ Adios!

@CowperKettle And compared with the Chechen wars, one wonders?

Second Chechen War: 7,217–7,425 killed on the Russian side.

First Chechen War: 14,000 soldiers killed or missing (CSMR estimate).

Both from Wikipedia.

It is saddening how the populations of most developed countries are decreasing.

That of China, too.

Perhaps.

But the poorest countries have populations that continue to increase the fastest.

As it has been since, I don't know, many decades? Longer?

> It is likely that a considerable effect could already be achieved by targeting those Russians with more than €10m. These 20,000 people are those who have benefited most from the Putin regime since he came to power in 1999, and all the evidence suggests that a considerable proportion of their real-estate and financial assets are located in western countries (between half and three-quarters).

theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/16/…

@CowperKettle It’s a genetic problem, do you think?

@CowperKettle I read about it; genetic but usually not inherited.

@tchrist Thank you for including me in your list of worthies. A very cheering view from one whose name I have come to respect. In many of my activities I tend to focus for a period and then drop out for long periods. This is not the attribute of a conscientious moderator so I had not even contemplated trying to be one. I commend your suggestion to others in your list, the ones that I recognise being erudite, reflective and balanced.

@tchrist Thank you, and I see you are recruiting. Could you get the MSE guys to lift the ban on Mari-Lou? Also Hot Licks (Daniel R. Hicks) would be good. And for a new but knowledgeable contributor, DjinTonic. I had not realized we’re electing two people.

@CowperKettle Hmm that's interesting.

@CowperKettle I'd like to know what Tolstoy quote Navalny was talking about.

The man is a hero in every sense of the word. I hope the New Russia, when it comes, puts up a monument to him in Red Square.

"Russia is ruined for decades to come" —Nina Khrushcheva

> “How could a country that defeated the Nazis do this?” she asks.

@Cerberus I think he is used to editorializing to classes of aspiring linguists. This is what I have come to expect from a "professorial" tone.

The editorializing gives an emotional subtext to a lecture, which keeps students interested.

Good lectures are a kind of storytelling. With occasional flashes of stand-up comedy.

I remember more the jokes profs told and the interesting human insights than I do the unadorned information that could be read in the text.

That's true even of the math and physics courses I took.

@CowperKettle What is the Russian term for "Karen"? That's what those women are, a flock of Karens.

Well, probably worse than Karens. Karens merely have loathsome sores on their souls. These women have no souls at all.

@CowperKettle Do you know what Tolstoy quote Navalny was talking about?

@CowperKettle what is the reason for that specific comparison though? What's their angle?

"Oh look, we're really good at invading?"

@RobustosupportsUkraine these people are fighting their own wars it seems, hundreds of miles away from the actual fight.

@CowperKettle they monitor Telegram that closely? That's sorta scary. Or was it a public sort of channel?

Because uh, isn't it supposed to be encrypted?

Or did they break in and ask her to show them her electronic devices?

@Anton list?

@M.A.R. Against children? And dead children at that?

@RobustosupportsUkraine I'm sure they're so repelled by the idea that no matter the amount of evidence, they'll call it staged.

Maybe they feel like that's the way to assert their individuality and go against the flow, be the underdogs?

Underdogs against what fight?

Probably dead children don't hold much meaning for them. It could have been about dead squirrels, or maybe a contentious choice of makeup

My point exactly.

@tchrist: I just ordered a new digital piano from Kraft Music, which I discover is in Franklin, Wisconsin. Just a short drive from your old stomping grounds. Were they around when you were small, and did you ever visit them?

@Xanne ??? Mari-Lou has been suspended?

@Mitch What? I thought I saw her post a question and some comments in the questions for mods page.

Yes, she did.

@RobustosupportsUkraine Xanne said 'ban'... is that the same as suspended? I don't know.

@CowperKettle "keep an eye out for hat-snatching teenagers."

Oh the humanity

It sounds like the violence was almost entirely to the straw hats.

@Mitch Perhaps you have me confused with a mod. I don't know these fine distinctions.

@Mitch @Rob I think Mari-Lou-A might be suspended on meta.SE, or has been in the past year, making her ineligible to run for mod.

People suspended somewhere can't become mod somewhere else for a year. This rule was passed after related drama and not on a whim, I think. I wasn't paying much attention.

Found this . . . Was it the post that led to the decision? I don't recall

The word "ban" has two additional meanings only prevalent on SO, due to size: Review bans, and post (Q&A bans)

Both are unlikely on meta.SE

@M.A.R. What is a "review ban"?

@Mitch I'm pretty sure Xanne is referring to the old suspension Mari-Lou A had on MSE (see her profile). It happened within the past year, which means she can't run.

Review bans are different and they only prevent a user from reviewing. Some sites have audits to make sure that you're paying attention while reviewing, and failing enough gets you a temporary review ban

Moderators can also manually issue review bans

Review bans have no affect on whether you can run for moderator or not (and the same is true for flag bans, which come from enough declined flags in a short period of time)

@Laurel What is a review ban?

Nobody seems to want to answer this question.

@RobustosupportsUkraine You're told you can't review for some days because you made a bad decision

@Laurel Thank you.

I thought the review part might mean something else.

> European Space Agency suspends joint Russia Mars project

More wait for my dreams of Mars colonization 😣

@RobustosupportsUkraine Oh. Never heard about it. But I've huge hopes for Mars colonization.

It would be exotic feeling.

Why?

Wouldn't it look amazing someone living on Mars?

@Vikas It would be exotic for a handful of people. Before they died horribly from gamma-ray exposure and other things.

Musk has also given me big hopes. He plans even sooner than everyone else.

@Vikas Musk is great. He can beat Putin to pulp with his bare hands.

This isn't like a several-day moon trip. You're looking at a year outside of Mother Earth's protective womb.

@NVZ lol

@NVZ Is Musk the new Chuck Norris?

I'm also inspired by this TED talk: youtube.com/watch?v=t9c7aheZxls&t=559s

Musk is key element in this. And I feel if every organization cooperate, they can do it sooner.

@RobustosupportsUkraine independent.co.uk/tech/…

@RobustosupportsUkraine lol

haha, I'm sure he was joking. But what a strange joke.

But someone should warn him that Putin fights dirty. I'm talking polonium in Musk's saltshaker before the match.

You never know, Musk might already have his ironman suits ready. Did you know Musk was in fact the real inspiration for Robert Downey Jr's character?

People in Russia are now getting arrested for just holding up a blank white paper, or even just for showing up.

@NVZ Now I'm not sure if you're joking or not.

@CowperKettle They probably have a quota now.

"Each policeman must arrest at least three demonstrators per day until further notice."

So anybody is fair game to them.

@RobustosupportsUkraine It is jokingly true. web.archive.org/web/20200531234446/https://www.theguardian.com/…

@NVZ Reality somehow never fails to surprise.

@RobustosupportsUkraine on SO (and maybe a few other really big sites), there are review audits. Posts that are deleted as spam or with rude/offensive flags are displayed to reviewers to test their discretion. Too many failed audits result in a review ban, because the reviewer has not paid attention and are spamming the queues for a gold badge.

@M.A.R. You ask about list. I can only imagine you refer to my reply to Tchrist in which I mentioned Tchrist's list of people he thought might like to stand in the moderator election. Any confusion is probably my fault because that was the first time I have used chat. This is the second time!

@Anton if you're chatting on PC, you can hover over a message which would put it in a dotted box. An arrow at the beginning of the message can point you to what it was a reply to, if it was. You can click on the broken arrow in the bottom left of the message to reply to a previous message. Welcome to chat!

@Mitch It was a temporary ban, which is over, but prevents her runnung in an election for a year.

@tchrist I appreciate the boost and especially the work moderators do. I'm glad to see people already nominating themselves. I'll give it a thought. My hesitancies include time commitment, only having a light history of review queue actions, and not engaging much with the general SE Meta.

@Xanne oh. that rule is weird.

Today is Holi here. I found that someone has already talked about it at least once in past 😅

@RobustosupportsUkraine I have never, ever had a professor who would teach with such a tone.

I wouldn't call it professorial...

What I would expect instead is anything from friendly to aloof.

Can someone explain this to me?

How could you possibly "wipe out" the Russian or American nuclear arsenal using nukes?

Each has countless well protected silos, distributed nuclear bombers, and nuclear submarines.

How could you possibly destroy many protected silos using nukes?

And submarines?

If anything, you'd use conventional cruise missiles to attempt this. And you'd still fail miserably.