We've always had heat waves, I wouldn't use the term 'unnatural' :)
Temperature might go up a little bit more, but it's mostly the frequency and duration of these that is changing
We used to have a heat wave every once in a while, then it became annually, and now we're seeing years with several of them
But yeah, I imagine the crazy people who go south to produce skin cancer on beaches more effectively, are also the ones that are clueless about climate change :P
I'll coax people back to reality whenever I encounter this :)
Yeah. The only saving grace for this day is the prediction that it will cool down fast this evening. So if I'm lucky, I don't have to stay up till 11 just for the temperature to go down to a point where I can open de windows.
Just try to make sure it doesn't get obsessive, if you focus on something too much even the slightest deviations start bothering you :)
I'm a bit suspicious about this new account btw: interpersonal.stackexchange.com/users/36372/cc-angela - the profile blurb claims "Chinese culture is the most representative ideological and philosophical system in Eastern culture" and promotes an app...
got one of those coming up in the afternoon, research project that's known a lot of delays with pilots (physical construction type stuff), and now the JS is worried about monitoring CO2 impact before the project ends - we were going to do forecasts, but they insist on measurements... Even though the academic party involved (i.e. us) doesn't have any budget for that (we were supposed to be finished after christmas, so that's what was budgeted)...
it's not our fault, yet somehow we end up being pulled in :/
I don't mind adding another two weeks about a year from now to process whatever's been measured, but I'm pretty sure my department won't let me do that for free
Hahaha well I'm glad I didn't even try to go for a walk last night: Not my thing. I'm invited over to dinner at my parent's place this evening too (kruudmoes, yay!) and I'm definitely taking the car instead of walking (where I have to walk is full sun, and buildings with almost no greenery, so it's always super hot)
I wish the person for the backyard tiles would call back/mail back about when they can come and the prices. Because once that's done, I can have my threadmill again, and I can just go for a walk on that after sunset (the forest here is basically off-limits, though I've never seen anyone enforce it, it feels bad breaking the rules)
@AlexRobinson Predictions here range from anything over 25 up to 45.
@AlexRobinson It's long range predictions. Basically there's two models for that, an European and an American one as far as I understood. The American one seems to be underestimating the amount of moisture evaporating in France, or something like that, according to a weather person in the news today XD
in the end I had like half an hour to prepare for it, but we discussed the subject before and our conclusions there were fortunately accepted... I'm still surprised if people ask to a researcher "will you describe the margins of error in your model?" I mean, it's pretty much all we do (:
I think the thing that pulled them over was that we had a minimum and a maximum figure (so all the worst case scenario variables multiplied vs all the best case scenarios), and for their reports they wanted a single figure... so we agreed on using that average and a + and a - range :rolleyes:
@AlexRobinson oh yeah, that definitely happens in some fields
it's exactly the same, just presented differently :rolleyes:
but that matters, and anyone from civil servants to business types like single figures (they always conveniently cite the average number without the margin of error, and after a little while that's all that's left)
a while ago i was asked to make a forecast for a thing and had to predict a number... so obviously i gave a range with slightly different sets of assumptions
said person is at a company we're in a partnership with, so its more of an "it is what it is" but we did need to know that it was gonna be lower from a strategy angle
been having similar arguments related to the above with one of the pilot partners... they're basically underperforming terribly, but not according to their own calculation (where they basically made wildly optimistic conclusions on their impact)
to make it more interesting, this guy is also the WP leader
fortunately for them another pilot is insanely active and has a massive impact, so on average the project as a whole is doing alright
but it annoys me when we take into account all kinds of factors and carefully construct a narrative, and then someone bulldozes in with a single figure and tries to convince us that's better
anyway, we have very strong arguments and he doesn't, also the JS people agree with our methodology so beat that with a stick :)
Well, that dentist visit was pretty much for nothing.. they put some temporary thing on there to last until I can get the permanent thing in two weeks... I managed to chew exactly one seedless grape with that side of my mouth and it's off again... :/
