/dev/chat

terdon

11:23

@jesse_b At least two viruses have disappeared as a result of global vaccination programs (one of the reasons why the current anti-vaccine movement is so terrifying): smallpox, and rinderpest (a cattle disease, apparently). Polio hasn't quite been eradicated, but it's essentially gone from most parts of the world.

It is possible, it's just extremely hard and requires a vaccine and people taking it.

Note that the plague is bacterial and not viral, that's a whole different kettle of fish.

Jeff Schaller

@terdon to get rid of fish, you need a fishing pole, net, or spear, and you need people to use them. It's possible, but takes lots of patience and skill.

terdon

:)

13

Q: Is it true that Netscape Navigator eventually became Mozilla Firefox?

Is it really the case that Mozilla Firefox is a modern day version of Netscape Navigator?

Who feels old?

Faheem Mitha

12:00

Hi @terdon. How are you doing in London? You might have heard that India just imposes a 3 week lockdown.

I know it's real, but I'm still not sure I believe it. I keep thinking I need someone to pinch me.

terdon

@FaheemMitha Yeah, I know the feeling.

I'm one of the lucky ones who already worked at home so I'm very used to it. It's hitting others harder.

Faheem Mitha

The situation in India is very worrisome, lockdown or not.

When this thing gets loose, and this point it looks more like a when, not an if, India simply doesn't have the resources to cope with it.

terdon

Yes. India is terrifying.

Nobody has the resources, but India is particularly bad, no question about it. Stay safe, Faheem!

Faheem Mitha

I do think this thing moves slower in warmer weather. But it might not make much difference in India.

terdon

@FaheemMitha There's no good evidence for that, I'm afraid.

For example, look at New Zealand and Australia who're basically in the end of summer.

Faheem Mitha

12:06

@terdon I'm doing my best, thank you. I'm pretty much a closet recluse, but even I can't cut myself totally from the planet.

terdon

One benefit of being in a major metropolis like London is that there is an extensive delivery infrastructure already in place.

Faheem Mitha

@terdon Well, ok. At any rate, it seems to be moving slower in India than in Western Europe.

Otherwise we would already be in very bad trouble.

Adam L

The planet voluntarily cuts itself off from me which works out pretty well

Faheem Mitha

In Western Europe it basically blew up overnight.

@terdon Here too, in theory. Though I've never done home delivery in Bombay.

Adam L

how come ifconfig tells me unknown host for some ip addresses I ask to change to and is happy for others why cant I have my favourite numbers less than 999 in there

less than or equal to I guess would be more appropriate

its 255 actually isn't it

this is why I cant have nice things

terdon

12:11

@FaheemMitha yes, for the moment. But you've had very few cases and, presumably, very low testing so it might be worse than is known :/

Faheem Mitha

@terdon It's certainly higher than the official number, that is definitely true.

OTOH, if it was like 100,000 cases, it would be noticeable.

But I suppose a 3 week lockdown will provide a chance to locate the hotspots.

One of which is Bombay, unfortunately.

It's one of those days when one wishes one was living in New Zealand.

Right now this wretched virus is presumably busy incubating all over the place.

terdon

@FaheemMitha Why? They're in lockdown too.

Faheem Mitha

@terdon Yes, but the potential downside there is much less.

@terdon You stay safe too. I don't think the UK situation is good either.

terdon

12:27

@FaheemMitha Why?

Because they have a smaller population? In some ways, that makes them far more vulnerable since presumably they can spare fewer people.

And yes, the UK is going to be in very serious trouble.

Faheem Mitha

First, the population of NZ is much smaller than India. So there are not huge issues with scale. And the population is better educated, and will cooperate well in this kind of crisis.

They are probably also in better shape.

@terdon Yes, that's part of it. I think it's an advantage in a lot of situations. Perhaps not if you are being attacked by the Germans or the Russians.

Small developed countries often work better because they have a better sense of identity and cohesion.

I wonder how Indian immune systems compare to other places. I'm not aware of any data about that. Or even how would go about quantifying it.

terdon

@FaheemMitha On the other hand, you are presumably far, far less resilient to having any percentage of the workforce be off work due to illness.

Faheem Mitha

@terdon Perhaps so. Color me ignorant.

terdon

Oh, I don't know either. We're all finding out as we go along...

Faheem Mitha

I think this going to be an exciting learning opportunity.

terdon

12:54

I hope so. I fear it won't though. The last ones weren't and humanity is very good at forgetting things...

Faheem Mitha

@terdon Last ones?

terdon

@FaheemMitha SARS, MERS (both largely ignored in the countries not directly affected), Spanish flu etc. We've known about the danger of such a pandemic for years, after all.

Dunno. We'll see.

Faheem Mitha

@terdon Oh, right. Pandemics. Yes, there was a book written in the 1990s called "The Coming Plague".

Jeff Schaller

“Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.”

terdon

heh, yeah exactly

Stephen Kitt

12:59

I think that’s a key factor here: the countries in SE Asia that are handling the situation well have populations with direct experience of similar events in the past, in living memory.

Faheem Mitha

amazon.com/Coming-Plague-Emerging-Diseases-Balance/dp/…

This one is apparently quite good. The author is actually qualified to write about the subject, which helps.

Well, relatively qualified. She has a background in immunology.

terdon

@StephenKitt yeah

Faheem Mitha

I hear that India has a shortage of virologists.

@StephenKitt We have tons of diseases here all the time. People still don't understand much about it. Though I think the authorities have an inkling.

Which is why India responded with lightning speed to this thing (by its standards).

Normally it would have got around to thinking about doing something in say 2022. Maybe 2025.

jesse_b

14:31

@terdon fair enough, I don't think a vaccine is a viable solution for this one though, at least not yet. I know I certainly wouldn't take it until it's been tested for years.

I think by the time a vaccine is available and approved enough people will have already gotten the virus and developed an immunity that it wont be as necessary

Tim

14:50

so do you mean you haven't had your baby vaccined?

Does "broker" in CORBA mean differently from a message broker?

What does broker mean in distributed computing?

jesse_b

@Tim I have but all vaccines currently approved in the US have gone through several years of testing and most have been modified over time to be more safe. If the corona virus vaccine is approved for use in the next year that means it got special approval to bypass the standard testing and therefore I wouldn't let him get it

Kusalananda

15:08

@jesse_b If a vaccine is approved next year (around or after summer), then it has gone through all the usual testing that a vaccine goes through. If it gets approved this year or early next year, it has been fast-tracked.

It usually takes 12 to 18 months for a vaccine (or any medicine) to undergo testing and approval.

Medicines (at least new ones) are also continuously undergoing re-evaluation. I'm not 100% sure how that works though.

Faheem Mitha

@Kusalananda Has any of your work experience been immunology related? I know you've worked in bioinformatics, and probably other related things.

Kusalananda

@FaheemMitha No, I'm much much earlier in the chain to be able to say that my work is used in any particular medicine.

jesse_b

@Kusalananda That may be the minimum time but most vaccines take 10-15 years to go from initial research to approval

Stephen Kitt

@jesse_b that very much depends on the type of vaccine; for vaccine families, approval can be much quicker.

jesse_b

except for seasonal flu vaccines, they get some exceptions so possibly this would fall under that

Stephen Kitt

15:14

See for example flu vaccines, exactly.

Kusalananda

However, the labs and personnel in the organization I'm part of is now being used to analyze Corona virus samples, apparently. This is a bit outside of what I'm personally work with though.

Stephen Kitt

(I worked on the software which tracks FDA approval for a large pharmaceutical company, the software that runs their production lines, and the software that does their QALY analysis.)

Kusalananda

(scilifelab.se/covid-19)

jesse_b

Everything I'm reading says vaccines are actually far harder to get approved than other types of drugs though too. Probably since they will always be given to a far larger number of people.

Stephen Kitt

@jesse_b yes. Vaccines on the market are tracked much more closely than other medicine in most “jurisdictions”.

I think it’s not so much about the number of people (compare pain-killers) but their preventive nature; it’s harder to measure the benefit.

You can’t say “let’s vaccinate half the population and see how many people die overall”.

Hence the importance of QALY analysis...

terdon

15:21

@jesse_b I don't think that's true. The basic principle of a vaccine, the use of an attenuated virus, is sound and relatively simple. It doesn't take several years, not usually. Certainly not 10 to 15!

Tim

Only hardcore conservatives don't have their babies vaccined

terdon

I've never taken the flu vaccine since I am not in any particular risk from the flu, and see no reason to line pharmaceuticals' pockets by getting the new strain's vaccine every year, but I sure as hell have been vaccinated for the more dangerous stuff and wouldn't hesitate to vaccinate my child as soon as one comes out for sars-covid-19.

@Tim Let's not generalize. There's no call for it.

jesse_b

https://www.vaccines.gov/basics/safety
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/basics/test-approve.html
https://www.historyofvaccines.org/content/articles/vaccine-development-testing-and-regulation
https://www.fda.gov/files/vaccines,%20blood%20&%20biologics/published/Ensuring-the-Safety-of-Vaccines-in-the-United-States.pdf
https://www.health.ny.gov/prevention/immunization/vaccine_safety/science.htm

Tim

jessie_b, you are a closet liberal

jesse_b

The health.ny.gov is the only one that says 10-15 years but the rest all say "Several years"

@Tim I'm more libertarian but mostly just "get off my lawn"

Tim

15:26

Is New Jersey too liberal and diverse for you?

terdon

@Kusalananda GNU does have a standard location for env: gnu.org/software/coreutils/manual/html_node/env-invocation.html

jesse_b

@Tim NJ was too crowded for me, they had a republican governor when I moved out though :p

terdon

At least, the official docs use /usr/bin, although I'll grant they don't call it a requirement.

Kusalananda

@terdon Oh, I'm sure GNU has. POSIX hasn't.

terdon

I never said POSIX did :)

But /usr/bin/env is the default on Linux as far as I know.

Kusalananda

15:27

I'm sure that script comes from a non-GNU system origfinally.

"origfinally"? :-)

Stephen Kitt

@Kusalananda “origfinally” is an interesting way to book-end

Jeff Schaller

clever new word! Ties back to "don't rewrite software", too

Kusalananda

@JeffSchaller Fat fingers, the gift that keeps on giving.

Jeff Schaller

@Kusalananda they're your origfinally fingers!

... unless you're a cyborg, typing on that DVORAK thing

terdon

But careful. You don't want to burn your origfinal fingers with covfefe.

Kusalananda

15:32

@JeffSchaller And you will never know.

terdon

@jesse_b Ah, that one claims 10 to 15 years of research, not of testing.

jesse_b

@terdon yeah

> most vaccines take 10-15 years to go from initial research to approval

terdon

That's a very different thing. In this case, you have scientists all over the world collaborating, so the research part can be much, much faster. We also already have existing vaccines for similar diseases that can help. Having one faster than that doesn't imply any sort of reduced testing, only increased research. The actual clinical trials step can't really be sped up too much.

jesse_b

@terdon Which many of those sites say the clinical trials take "Several years" can't find much on exact numbers

terdon

Yeah, but again, the trials will be MUCH faster with a pandemic, simply because you have a huge pool of test subjects and don't need to wait to find infected volunteers.

I just mean there are many ways this can come faster than usual but without compromising quality or safety.

jesse_b

15:36

I think vaccines are to prevent infection not cure already infected people

Stephen Kitt

@jesse_b some can do both

typically if administered quickly

terdon

^^ this

But yes, the main point of vaccines is to prevent infection. They basically just prime your immune system so you can mount a better, faster and stronger defense.

Stephen Kitt

But even with “only” prevention, pandemics are ideal for testing because they allow large-scale stats to be obtained rapidly. Vaccination is a stats game.

terdon

Yeah. You couldn't ask for better conditions for the rapid development, testing and deployment of a vaccine.

Silver linings, in a way...

Stephen Kitt

Stats, and money, which suddenly becomes easier to find when thousands are dying in developed countries.

Tim

15:44

@jesse_b Where in New Jersey are crowded? Do you mean crowded as in New York City?

jesse_b

@Tim all of it, it's the most densely populated state in the US

Tim

By crowded, do you mean as in NYC?

Kusalananda

@terdon I've always thought the same. However, I'm getting older. I might well start taking seasonal jabs sooner rather than later.

terdon

@StephenKitt Oh yes. There's no shortage of money for research into disease. As long as that disease affects middle aged white men, anyway.

Tim

I am very sentimental

Stephen Kitt

15:48

@terdon I detect a familiar pattern...

Faheem Mitha

16:00

@terdon You forgot "rich".

Tim

34

Q: Are all French citizens who go outside their home legally required to carry official papers with a reason why they are out (Covid-19 lockdown)?

The BBC states rather briefly that France began its lockdown on Tuesday morning, requiring citizens to carry official paperwork stating why they were not at home. French Interior Minister Christophe Castaner told Europe 1 radio on Thursday: "The 15-day period may be extended. If necessar...

law-enforcement france covid-19

29

Q: Did French police fine homeless persons for not being confined at home?

As mentioned in this question, in France, people need to stay at home, and carry the paper if not. The paper will basically explain why we are briefly outside home and that should avoid us being fined. It has been reported on social media that homeless persons have been caught and fined by the p...

law-enforcement france covid-19

I guess Stephen Kitt doesn't need to worry about not carrying official papers, because that is French citizen only

Speaking of sentimental, any of you think of NLP having a prime time or a bright future?

Faheem Mitha

@Tim NLP?

Tim

Hey, I was wondering how you detect email spams?

"natural language processing"

Faheem Mitha

16:28

@Tim Bayesian spam filtering is one method.

Using fairly simple-minded but effective statistical classification methods using Bayesian theory.

Tim

In what library and programming language is the method in spam filtering coded?

Jeff Schaller

say Ruby, say Ruby

jesse_b

applescript

Kusalananda

16:44

@Tim C

I'm using bogofilter. It's a C program.

Jeff Schaller

@Kusalananda if you compress C and let it sit around it awhile, it becomes C#

Kusalananda

@JeffSchaller If it becomes C#, then you've been letting sit around for too long. Throw it out.

jesse_b

well if you throw it out, and it goes to the landfill and rots for several years, it becomes applescript

Kusalananda

Or Objective C

jesse_b

there should be a subjective C that only works for certain people depending on their perspective

Kusalananda

16:48

"Works for me!"

ANTSY C

Jeff Schaller

The ANTSY C bogofilter deletes your email before scanning it. The C++ bogofilter just Caesar-shifts each character by one.

The C++ one almost caught on, as it defanged every virus.

Faheem Mitha

@terdon At some point the Mozilla browser disappeared from Debian. I thought it was still there. How time flies.

I also used to use Galeon as my default browser. That isn't there any longer. Shame, it was a nice browser.

Galeon

Galeon is a discontinued Gecko-based web browser that was created by Marco Pesenti Gritti with the goal of delivering a consistent browsing experience to GNOME desktop environment. It gained some popularity in the early 2000s due to its speed, flexibility in configuration and features. The disagreement over the future of Galeon split the development team in 2002, which resulted in the departure of the browser's initial author and several other developers. This event marked the beginning of the browser's popularity decline, which led to its discontinuation in September 2008. Some of Galeon's features...

Apparently something called GNOME Web is its descendant.

I've never used it. Probably not the best name. Can't really search for it.

ilkkachu

17:21

@jesse_b There's subjective C that only works with certain compilers or platforms, does that count?

jesse_b

@ilkkachu I guess whether or not it counts is subjective

:)

ilkkachu

well put :)

Stephen Kitt

@jesse_b that’s C++

Jeff Schaller

there's a programming language that someone made up ... can't remember what it's called; something like covfefe. Advertised as "write once, run anywhere", but turned out to be troublesome.

Faheem Mitha

@JeffSchaller Isn't that Java?

Jeff Schaller

17:28

@FaheemMitha you caught the joke, yes :)

Faheem Mitha

Has anyone heard from Anthony recently? I hope he's ok.

I guess I could send him an email.

Stephen Kitt

He’s been participating in discussions on the Debian mailing lists...

terdon

Oh damn, he was looking for a job. I hope that doesn't mean he's out of work now. This is an awful time to be out of work, especially in the US with it's ludicrous public health system.

Stephen Kitt

It could mean he’s in a job where he can’t participate in /dev/chat!

Isaac

Interesting group of graphs for covid19 growth rate, including europe USA, India, australia, etc. Amazing the way that Japan and south Korea have been able to keep the growth rate under control.
http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/

Stephen Kitt

17:33

I don’t think he’s been participating more than previously in the Debian mailing lists, if that’s any consolation.

@Isaac note that France is under-reporting cases and deaths

terdon

Most are, really.

@FaheemMitha have a look at the (excellent) link Isaac just posted. It includes a graph showing the spread in warm countries and says that although there may be a difference, the data aren't conclusive.

Faheem Mitha

@StephenKitt He has? Which mailing lists?

jesse_b

@FaheemMitha Debian

trollface.jpg

Faheem Mitha

@terdon I think it would be almost impossible to draw any conclusions from raw data, because there are so many confounding factors.

But apparently viruses from the influenza family do get slowed down in warmer weather.

jesse_b

It's much harder to transmit viruses in warmer weather because they live in liquids and liquids evaporate faster

Faheem Mitha

17:47

Slower doesn't mean incapacitated, obviously.

@jesse_b Huh?

jesse_b

@FaheemMitha many transmissions happen because a small amount of spit/sweat/blood, of an infected person is left behind on a surface and then another person touches that surface and then their mouth/nose/eyes

Faheem Mitha

@terdon If your point is not to hold out hope that warmer weather will provide a miraculous "cure", don't worry, I won't.

jesse_b

If that liquid evaporates faster the virus dies faster

I'm just saying all virus transmission should slow down in warmer weather

not just the flu

Faheem Mitha

@jesse_b Hmm. Do you have a source for this?

terdon

@FaheemMitha no point, just data, including some supporting the idea that warmer weather will slow it down and other data suggesting it won't :/

jesse_b

17:52

@FaheemMitha pbs.org/newshour/science/…

terdon

@jesse_b If so, that would only be for those viruses transmitted via airborne droplets. That isn't "all" viruses, sadly. But yeah, it could be a factor here, we just don't know yet for sure.

Faheem Mitha

@terdon Ok. It should be possible to test this in a lab setting. And I think I came across a post some days ago along those lines, but I didn't save the url.

ilkkachu

well, here's one article on that: bbc.com/future/article/…

Faheem Mitha

@jesse_b Thank you. That's seems like an interesting and informative link.

ilkkachu

and it mentions this:
"Pandemics often don’t follow the same seasonal patterns seen in more normal outbreaks. Spanish flu, for example, peaked during the summer months, while most flu outbreaks occur during the winter. "

Faheem Mitha

17:55

@ilkkachu Jesse's link does?

ilkkachu

that BBC article

Faheem Mitha

@ilkkachu Which BBC article?

jesse_b

3 mins ago, by ilkkachu

well, here's one article on that: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200323-coronavirus-will-hot-weather-kill-covid-19

Faheem Mitha

@jesse_b Wow, totally blanked out that message.

jesse_b

It happens, this chat window isn't the best for readability (not the worst either)

ilkkachu

18:02

I should have made that more visible. It's kinda funny how the chat here cuts those links really aggressively, exactly the opposite of say WA or Telegram where the system loads the title from the linked article for you...

Faheem Mitha

Of course, even if it moves slower in warmer places, it's still an other things being equal deal.

And in India, things aren't exactly equal. It's like Heaven for infectious diseases.

Isaac

19:04

@StephenKitt Everyone is cheating, France is not the worst. A very rough estimate that doesn't take into account age distribution nor the severity of the health system collapse is to assume some death rate, say 1.3%, and then divide the reported deaths by that. That should be the total of reported confirmed cases.

If finally, you divide the actually reported cases by that number you get an indicator of the percentage of reporting. Using 1.3% and 3.7% (from other sources) you get (I removed countries that have reported less than 30 deaths, we have to cut somewhere):

Country Total T.Deaths T/1Mpop death/1Mpop Report Rate Report Rate
Total: 458,662 20,799 58.8 2.7 28.67% 81.59%
China 81,218 3,281 56.0 2.0 32.18% 91.59%
Italy 74,386 7,503 1,230.0 124.0 12.89% 36.68%
USA 61,808 859 187.0 3.0 93.54% 266.23%
Spain 47,610 3,434 1,018.0 73.0 18.02% 51.30%

Germany 37,098 205 443.0 2.0 235.26% 669.57%
Iran 27,017 2,077 322.0 25.0 16.91% 48.13%
France 25,233 1,331 387.0 20.0 24.65% 70.14%
Switzerland 10,897 153 1,259.0 18.0 92.59% 263.52%
S. Korea 9,137 126 178.0 2.0 94.27% 268.31%

UK 8,264 435 122.0 6.0 24.70% 70.29%
Netherlands 6,412 356 374.0 21.0 23.41% 66.64%
Austria 5,588 30 620.0 3.0 242.15% 689.19%
Belgium 4,937 178 426.0 15.0 36.06% 102.62%
Canada 3,290 30 87.0 0.8 142.57% 405.77%
Portugal 2,995 43 294.0 4.0 90.55% 257.71%

Sweden 2,526 44 250.0 4.0 74.63% 212.41%
Brazil 2,274 47 11.0 0.2 62.90% 179.02%
Turkey 1,872 44 22.0 0.5 55.31% 157.42%
Denmark 1,724 34 298.0 6.0 65.92% 187.61%
Japan 1,307 45 10.0 0.4 37.76% 107.46%
Indonesia 790 58 3.0 0.2 17.71% 50.40%
Philippines 636 38 6.0 0.3 21.76% 61.93%

As you can see, italy is very low in reporting 12% to 37%.
France is not that bad with 25% to 70%
Germany is excellent.
Source data from worldometers.info (the easiest to get for everyone)
You can repeat the table (not that hard). https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Videonauth

669.57% report rate in Germany? I know we have an efficient health system but well

Isaac

@Videonauth It means that a lot more testing (and confirmed cases were found) in Germany.

Videonauth

yes but to be honest were by far not testing everyone right now, only cases with symptoms similar to a covid-19 infection

I'm might simply not be a fan of such percentages above 100%

Jeff Schaller

@Videonauth we give 110% here at U&L ;)

Isaac

You are testing everyone that is suspected of having covid19 and everyone that got in contact with them, thats a lot more than just testing people that gets to the hospital.

@Videonauth In any case, As I said at the beggining, it is a very rough indicator, not a fine one.

Videonauth

19:15

well actually if youre going to be admitted into a hospital here right now youre getting tested too just to make sure we isolate such cases

I myself spent the past three weeks already in self isolation due to my health

Isaac

@Videonauth If you have got no fever, no lack of breath, no, I believe there is no reasonable expectation of being tested.

But if you are, that explains the high rate of confirmed cases.

Videonauth

yep but then you can carry a virus as well without getting any symptoms, this is what makes it so dangerous, ideally we should test everyone but thats not possible logistically and there are not enough test kit available anyway

if you get admitted to a hospital for staying there you get tested to protect all the other patients

and if you have symptoms, be it now the flu or be it covid-19

Isaac

@Videonauth Yes, but the proportion of people being tested is a lot higher in Germany than in Italy.

Videonauth

yes we have right now 37k confirmed cases and the labs can test about 4-8thousand per day

but comparing to italy is not a wise move, italy has lost the race with keeping the new infections at bay and their health care system is simply not withstanding the influx of hard cases right now, thus the high death count

if our helath-care system reaches its breaking point the fatal cases might skyrocket here too

Isaac

@Videonauth Yep, I said at the start: nor the severity of the health system collapse, yes, that should change this estimate. I just tried to keep it simple.

Videonauth

19:24

actually the CFR is estimated around 1%

which is stilla very high number of people

we have 81-82 million people in this country that would mean 810k people wil/can die

Isaac

@Videonauth Sadly, the real CFR is very difficult to evaluate until the outbreak ends. It is very different in different countries right now.

Videonauth

true and there are so many factors preventing that calculation

since not all people are fully healthy

still scary when you have like me a chronic bronchitis, astma and being a diebetic patient already

Isaac

@Videonauth Is the 1% is of the confirmed cases, not from the general population. Well, that is how I understand it anyway.

@Yes, very scary

Videonauth

the CFR raises when you have already health problems

Isaac

@Videonauth Not something anyone would like to be exposed to.

Videonauth

19:29

ah and i forgot that i take immune supressants

Isaac

@Videonauth Be careful .....

Videonauth

like i said im in self isolation, tomorrow i have to go out for groceries

Isaac

@Videonauth Eat vegetables .... and no sugar :-)

Videonauth

food rn might be a good idea, im going to make me some and have dinner

later folks

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