Discussion between Relaxed and JonathanReez

JonathanReez

00:01

@Relaxed yes, you'd have to dismantle all of those treaties and rewrite the constitution in many countries including Germany. AFAIK for Germany you'd have to go as far as do a France-1968 style "revolution" where the old Constitution is thrown into the dustbin and a new country is created because the parts protecting refugees are in the section that you cannot change

So, yeah, I realize that's not realistic, but come on, at least the legal immigration can and should be revamped and we should stop handing out permanent residencies/citizenships like candy

Relaxed

That's a ridiculously low estimate that completely ignores police escorts, detention, etc. not to mention the fact there were basically no flights to Syria and little to no collaboration with the Syrian government over this time period.

JonathanReez

The West is a precious and special place, an island of light in this horrible world of ours. We can't just let it be choked out by foreigners who will over time turn the West into a copy of their own home countries.

Relaxed

So, yeah, I realize that's not realistic, but come on, at least the legal immigration can and should be revamped and we should stop handing out permanent residencies/citizenships like candy But that's not at all what's happening now and your idea is basically reshaping society (in a more authoritarian and generally completely unappealing way) for what exactly?

@JonathanReez To the extent that it is true now, it definitely wouldn't be after dismantling “all those treaties”, rewriting the constitution, etc.

JonathanReez

@Relaxed to save the light of civilization and prevent the repeat of the collapse of the Roman Empire that will lead to another Dark Age.

Relaxed

You'e the one advocating a fast forward to a dark age as far as I am concerned.

Based on a complete misunderstandings of what the issues really are.

JonathanReez

00:08

@Relaxed how would you explain the rapid progress in the UAE and Saudi Arabia towards being civilized?

or why Japan is doing great despite being extremely harsh towards foreigners?

or why Australia is doing great despite their Nauru policy?

Relaxed

I already told you I don't think that word is useful and I am genuinely wondering what's that supposed to mean or how that sits with your cultural determinism theory

JonathanReez

@Relaxed that's just one of the issues, yes. The biggest one is obviously the debt/GDP ratio due to the wild overspending, followed by overregulation.

Relaxed

And yet you think Japan is doing great?

Those are not big issues either, objectively speaking, Japan a case in point.

JonathanReez

@Relaxed "civilized"? You don't see why the US is less civilized than Mexico, for example?

Relaxed

On integration, Wikipedia is a decent introduction, it means building a friends network, intermarriage, “sharing their experience and history, are incorporated with them in a common cultural life”

No, I genuinely don't, I think it's word loaded with contradictions and 19th century thinking that obscures more than it explains anything, certainly not a one-dimensional thing that could be measured and ranked, especially when you try to apply it to societies as diverse as Mexico and the US.

JonathanReez

00:14

@Relaxed who is more "integrated": an American expat working as an industrial process engineer at the Tesla factory with a German mortgage on a $1m apartment in Munich or a third-generation Turkish German person who relies on public benefits?

I don't know what the right word is, but to me "integration" is primarily about how much you're contributing to the GDP/capita minus any externalities you create

Relaxed

To the extent that it means anything it's obviously the latter but again integration is a social process for a whole society, demanding that people integrate or trying to decide who is or who isn't doesn't make much sense.

Even the word “expat” suggests a complete lack of integration, how is that even debatable?

JonathanReez

@Relaxed OK, then "integration" is the wrong word. "Utility" is a better one

every new immigrant must create positive utility to the host society compared to the median native citizen - or be asked to leave

Relaxed

And they do, empirically

Integration is however the real issue and it doesn't work the way you seem to envision

JonathanReez

@Relaxed some do, some don't. The utility calculus should think 3 generations down the line.

Relaxed

It's even plausible that treating migrants purely through the length of utility is detrimental to integration.

Again, they do on average, most do individually and there is absolutely no reason to think 3 generations down the line.

JonathanReez

00:20

@Relaxed what % of Germans would not appreciate living next to an American expat who's polite, doesn't play loud music or disturbs the peace, etc?

@Relaxed why should you not think 3 generations down the line? The Turkish Germans example proves that you absolutely must do this.

Relaxed

Many would complain about the rent being too high because of these people and not speaking their language anymore but if we go down that route what percentage of Germans. would not appreciate living next to a Syrian expat who's polite, blablabla? The qualifications do a lot of the work… And then what if the American expat is black?

JonathanReez

of course if you're (say) Russia and have a net outflow of people you might not have much of a choice. But Germany? Standards should be incredibly, incredibly high for permanent residence and citizenship

@Relaxed if the Syrian expat is atheist, then sure, its no problem

If the American expat is black you'd have more racists, absolutely. But if they're following all the outward rules of German society then educated people won't have any issues with him/her

Relaxed

@JonathanReez It's a crazy generalization and whatever problems there area, that's not what it proves at all.

Among the reasons that we shouldn't think 3 generations down the line is that people who are born and grew up here are not going anywhere and are the product of their life in the local society much more than any remaining Turkishness.

JonathanReez

@Relaxed if Germans thought 3 generations down the line back in the 1950s-1970s, then those third-generation Turks would not exist in Germany today, with the exception of children of the Turkish "elite" who'd cause no trouble

the only racist angle in all of this is that (say) Russian immigrants might be just as bad as the Turkish but due to our tendency to associate with people who look like us, the kids of Russian immigrants usually do not see themselves as 'different' and rapidly lose their Russian roots

Relaxed

Germany wouldn't be much of what it is today either.

JonathanReez

00:29

@Relaxed yes, it would be much better

Relaxed

I don't think so

JonathanReez

and there would be more and more organized migration from Turkey as it got richer and more civilized, with no animosity towards Turkish immigrants from all but the most racist locals

Relaxed

Even in purely utilitarian / economic terms

@JonathanReez That is actually the entirety of the problem and proves exactly why obsessing about the perceived qualities of immigrant, “extreme vetting” or assuming that if only we would have chosen better ones, everything would be different makes no sense

That's a complete fantasy with most of what you are suggesting completely antithetical to integration.

JonathanReez

Have you been to the Central train station in Brussels, especially past 10pm? If you were, what do you think it would look like in my 'fantasy' parallel world?

Relaxed

@JonathanReez Because Americans are atheists? Where does that come from?

Also Syrian Christians not welcome?

JonathanReez

00:33

@Relaxed because Islam is highly visible due to the insistence of many branches on public and loud calls for prayer

Relaxed

And?

JonathanReez

And its annoying to locals and thus creates a negative externality. No one should be allowed to disturb the peace

Relaxed

We have bells all the time

JonathanReez

And, yes, I'm also opposed to Christian churches ringing bells

Relaxed

So it wasn't really about being polite or net utility?

JonathanReez

00:34

@Relaxed if they go to local German churches and don't create their own, locals would be fine

@Relaxed what could possibly be less polite than disturbing the peace with loud sounds?

Relaxed

That's… not what politeness means

Not that call to prayers are a widespread issue in Western Europe…

JonathanReez

@Relaxed every person deserves the right to never be disturbed by noises, lights or smells of other people in the privacy of their home

Relaxed

It's funny to try to rationalize it or dance around the issue but people get all worked up about any sign of Islam, are minarets disturbing the skyline?

@JonathanReez That's not how humans have been living, anywhere, at any time in history

Maybe in Svalbard or something?

JonathanReez

@Relaxed if they don't fit in within the architectural style of the city then possibly

Relaxed

When I was there I was told about a guy who stayed in his hut and showed up in Longyearbuyen twice a year for supplies

JonathanReez

00:38

@Relaxed come visit an HOA community in the US

Relaxed

I have, actually have a partner who just sold a town-style condo

JonathanReez

$100 fine for playing music past 10pm, escalating to thousands and eventually a forced sale of your property - strongly enfroced in most places

Relaxed

And I don't envy any of it

But for the sake of understanding your worldview, doesn't that make the US more civilized than Mexico, Europe and all the rest?

JonathanReez

or, heck, come visit my apartment in Prague. I've called the non-emergency line several times on people breaking the rules and playing music past 10pm - always enforced successfully, though I'll admit there's parts of Prague where its not as well enforced due to tourists

Relaxed

Well it means music is allowed before 10 pm though

And traffic

Which is awful in the US

JonathanReez

00:40

I've lived in NRW for a few months in a medium sized city, was very peaceful as well

@Relaxed unfortunately... yes.

Relaxed

It's just not the case that humans never have to deal with noises, lights, or smells

To the extent that you can afford a HOA condo, it's just that you have to abide by one definition of what's acceptable or not

I live of half a year in a village in South Germany, it was extremely peaceful… save for tractors and the smell of manure

JonathanReez

@Relaxed yes, not having to deal with disturbances from other humans is a huge privilege

Relaxed

You just cannot get around it, we are a social species

Also birds

JonathanReez

@Relaxed you can even in Manhattan, if you can afford a modern apartment with triple-glazed soundproof windows

you have to pay more the closer you want to be to amenities

Relaxed

Sure or you can buy an island somewhere but what does that have to do with every human having the right to X, Y, Z or a workable rule to live in a society?

It's the exact opposite, not having to care about noise because you can isolate yourself from it

Just like the guy in Svalbard

JonathanReez

00:45

@Relaxed noise is just one example of a negative externality created by people and is one of the more visible ones - i.e. the people blasting loud music from their cars

but again - some places in the US will strongly enforce the law against loud music from cars, some won't even enforce the law on cars without license plates

the rules are all there, enforcement is an issue

Relaxed

Yeah yeah I got it, you don't like people but that doesn't really help think through integration or anything like that

@JonathanReez Well that's a common issue and yet you want to add even more rules

JonathanReez

@Relaxed its not just me who wants peace and quiet, its most people

you can like people but also not want to hear whats going on in their cars or apartments

If I want loud music I go to a bar, if I want a house party till 2am I keep the windows closed to avoid disturbing the neighbors (the building I'm in has world-class insulation otherwise, you can't hear a peep)

Relaxed

But they still want to drive their cars wherever they damn well please and get larger highways everywhere

JonathanReez

@Relaxed coming back to my original question: have you been to the central station in Brussels past 10pm?

Relaxed

Central no? Zuid mostly

JonathanReez

00:51

OK, to paint you a picture, at least back in 2018 it was considered the most unsafe place in all of Brussels and I've personally witnessed lots of very criminal-looking characters lurking around

My guess as to the number of people with European ancestry among those hanging out there? Close to zero

Relaxed

Well you're not really criminal looking otherwise

JonathanReez

the loud music is just a small problem, the biggest issues are crime and exploitation of public benefits

Relaxed

What does “exploitation” even mean here?

JonathanReez

@Relaxed I've seen lots of very criminal looking white Russians in Russia

@Relaxed if an immigrant or their descendants down to the third generation end up being a net-negative to the state budget, something went wrong in the immigration system

Relaxed

You will note that I never said there were no integration problems, there clearly are and you will see in the Wikipedia article that Germany is pretty bad, Belgium not that bad on the measure mentioned but in my experience it does have serious problems

JonathanReez

00:54

OK and yet you don't wish all those people were never allowed to stay in the first place?

Relaxed

What I am saying is that it makes no sense to think of these problems in terms of some sort of long delayed effect of the cultural background of newcomers vs. characteristics of the host society.

Starting with racism, which is a real and serious problem

I certainly didn't deny that

JonathanReez

@Relaxed there was a recent paper published in Sweden on the relation between country of origin and net benefit to the state budget in 1st and 2nd generation immigratnts compared to locals. I can dig it up if you want but it had a very clear proof of the origin country being important.

Relaxed

@JonathanReez Yes, because that's not where the problem lies, deeply unfair and counter-productive in other ways and not even a choice we really have.

@JonathanReez It is on its face, no matter what the numbers are, not a proof of anything

And I just explained exactly why

JonathanReez

https://bra.se/rapporter/arkiv/2021-08-25-misstankta-for-brott-bland-personer-med-inrikes-respektive-utrikes-bakgrund

found it!

Relaxed

It's just a logical error

JonathanReez

00:57

@Relaxed why would Germans care about "fairness"? It's their country, their land, anyone stepping on it should benefit Germans or go home

I certainly think so when I visit any other nation

Relaxed

Who says anything about Germans? You just asked me

JonathanReez

Yeah, I've admitted its "unfair" but I don't understand why it matters to you?

Relaxed

But there are obvious reasons to care, the Kantian imperative, “light of civilization” and all that

Why would I care about the next French guy?

There is nothing obvious about that

JonathanReez

@Relaxed because not caring about him is how you end up with a civil war

not caring about foreigners from Turkey doesn't cause any issues

Relaxed

It does, it causes the very issues you have been talking about all day

JonathanReez

01:01

if a tree falls in a forest but no one is there to hear it...

If a Turkish person never gets to stay in Europe, what problems could they possibly cause?

Relaxed

Also why do you stop at the third generation exactly? Why would anybody be American or French?

JonathanReez

I guess they could try and start a war but that's why France has nukes and other weapons

Relaxed

Again, that's really something you can manage, we are better off worrying about what we can do to foster integration than spend so much money and energy on this fantasy

JonathanReez

@Relaxed you don't stop at the third generation, yes, you'd ideally plan ahead for the next thousand years, but realistically 2-3 generations is as much as you can predict in advance

@Relaxed yes, 100% agreed, and step 1 is: shut down new permanent residencies

Relaxed

@JonathanReez Wondering about Russia by the way, sometimes it's European, sometimes it's not, your theories can be confusing.

@JonathanReez Well then you don't agree, I have been explaining for an hour or two why it's hugely detrimental to integration

JonathanReez

01:04

shut down the influx of new problems to avoid even more of a headache, for all but the most talented/excellent people

@Relaxed Russia is a horrible, uncivilized, evil nation

Relaxed

You care more about American expats and a purely utilitarian view of the state budget (but not the overall economy), I get itm, but that's not the point I was making

@JonathanReez But that won't solve anything, for that's not where the problem lies.

JonathanReez

I'm sad the Polish-Lithuanian state failed to conquer the Muscovites back in the day

@Relaxed again: if a person doesn't get to come and stay, how can they possibly hurt your nation?!

what are they going to do from abroad?

Relaxed

Well you just said “save for all but the most talented/excellent people" so some people would be coming

So get working on that integration thing is what I am saying

JonathanReez

@Relaxed yes, the best of the best would be coming in permanently, the rest only as temporary workers and with a ban on any nations where the "temporary" tends to become "permanent"

Turkish Tesla engineers and their C1-German-speaking spouses don't need any "integration", them and their kids will excel in German society

if you looked way back, I'm sure people who fit that criteria in 1970 also have excellent descendants

Relaxed

I already said many times that it's a self-destructive fantasy that bears no relationship to the actual policy decisions but even then, my point is that the main thing hindering integration isn't and has never been the “excellence” of those coming in

@JonathanReez And I am telling you that it doesn't even matter

JonathanReez

01:10

@Relaxed you're telling me that the children of the top-1% are not more likely to succeed in society?

Relaxed

@JonathanReez Some will, just as some descendants of Gastarbeiter do today but that's not a guarantee of anything and that has very little to do with them, that's the whole problem

JonathanReez

@Relaxed wait what? The ratio of success between the top-1% and the Gastarbeiter is huge!

I can dig up the numbers but the % of kids of the top 1% who stay in the 1% was pretty impressive

Relaxed

Top-1% what? I am all for increasing salaries of the Gastarbeiter if that's your prescription.

Sure but all things being equal, they will struggle more for it, that's where the integration problem is, above and beyond general inequality and poverty issues

JonathanReez

@Relaxed top-1% by income

@Relaxed they're already gone up massively since the 1970s, yes

Relaxed

Then how is income and living conditions not the problem then?

JonathanReez

01:17

richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/…

@Relaxed it is, yes, for German citizens. For foreigners we have the privilege of waving them goodbye once their work contract ends

Relaxed

Well in actual fact it is for everybody but instead of tackling the problem, you indulge in this fantasy. Not to mention the fact that if it wasn't Turkish Gastarbeiter, there are many people in Germany who would push very hard to find other people to fill this role.

It's funny you would bring up inequality and social reproduction because that's exactly the problem and the reason why the exact composition of the lower class or what level of Germans their great-great-grand-parents may have had is a distraction

@JonathanReez I am still confused by your view of Russia though, you still offered it as somehow European, at least for criminals. I don't know Russia well enough to guess how people see themselves but in France at least many people would count it as such, especially the people who share your view on nationalism, Islam, immigration and all the rest.

They might even herald it as an example of the kind of manly values that are essential to European civilization that people like me are betraying.

None of that despicable universalism of the French Republic…

JonathanReez

01:34

@Relaxed Russians are not very European except for a ~10% minority but they look European so their kids integrate much more easily

JonathanReez

01:44

Integration is a two way racism door: people treat you differently and you naturally want to hangout with people who look like you. You can see it in the U.S. where fourth generation Chinese Americans will still hangout together despite not speaking any Chinese and even if they live in the super progressive parts without racism

It’s just human nature

Relaxed

02:14

I kind of agree with that too but then to recap, from my perspective:
(1) We have a problem with social reproduction and inequality, which is not going away once we got rid of immigration because, eh, we still need people to clean hotel rooms, deliver fast food, work in Amazon warehouses, and care for the elderly.
(2) We have a problem with racism and integration, which doesn't really have anything to do with the quality of newcomers but about social dynamics. That's not going away either because while Germany can still to some extent dream of itself as an ethnically homogenous nation (as i…

And yet, we pointedly ignore these issues, muse about rolling back history or finding some causality in the personal qualities or cultural traits of the people who came earlier and then based our immigration policy on all that…

JonathanReez

06:01

@Relaxed you have a soft and kind heart, Relaxed. Unfortunately foreigners like to exploit this kindness and see it as a weakness.

You wouldn’t believe how many Russians (and even some Ukrainians!) living in the west support Putin and his war. When Americans say this I don’t care but when an immigrant says this it makes me shake my head and regret how poorly the vetting system is given that such monsters were allowed into the West

How many Turks living in Germany support the Armenian genocide? How many Rwandans support the 1994 genocide? How many Afghanis support 9/11? How does the West allow such people to come and live among civilized society? I just don’t get it, man…

Relaxed

07:11

Why do you think only foreigners exploit it?

Or that such feelings are limited to Afghans or whoever?

Or that a Turkish person's feeling towards the Armenian genocide reveals anything inherent to their personality or Turkish culture?

It is, as you said, very human, and not a basis for discrimination or policy

I don't apply this kind of test to French people, I have no reason to apply it to others

It's the Kantian categorical imperative again

You can get rid of all the Turks, Afghans, and Rwandans (victims of the genocide included), you still only have humans left

The most troublesome is that you have still failed to explain what this “abuse” or “exploitation” consists of. If getting some benefit that citizens get is an abuse then that's completely arbitrary and entirely circular.

JonathanReez

10:02

@Relaxed the Kantian imperative allows for filtering criteria if you have a limited number of people to take in. France is not infinite in its capacity to support a civilized lifestyle. Once that is acknowledged we can start setting up rules for whom is allowed to immigrate.

@Relaxed taking in welfare money and/or committing crime, or otherwise disturbing the public peace. In the U.S. it’s rare to see Americans blast music from their cars: I know this because of the language of the songs being played.

@Relaxed you under appreciate the efforts it took by many generations of Frenchmen to get France to be as civilized as it is today, at least in the parts uncorrupted by foreign influence. It’s less obvious in France but very prominent in Germany which was was forced to bend the knee and get their affairs together by the Allied forces, a process which took a couple of decades past 1945 to complete.

Same deal in Japan: it took centuries of strictly enforced social rules to read todays state where their society is extremely neat and organized.

Are all Frenchmen perfect? No. But they’ve been selected over the centuries and the culture has been fine tuned to reach an equilibrium where the most evil tendencies of human nature have been suppressed and there’s enough of a social pressure to conform so that the average Frenchman ends up behaving much better than the average Russian

Relaxed

10:57

@JonathanReez You know it but why does it even matter?

JonathanReez

18:53

@Relaxed see the answers to this question of mine, which actually changed my mind on the topic: politics.stackexchange.com/questions/31616/…

The equilibrium of order vs disorder in society is more fragile than we think. Introducing too many people of the wrong culture too fast can break the fragile equilibrium and cause the nation to slide into being the same type of failed state as the countries these people came from.

Putin didn't come out of a vacuum - Russians had the chance to pick better leaders in the 1990s but ended up picking a permanently drunk wannabe-authoritarian (see: events of 1993 and Yeltsin's Plan B in case he lost the election), who then put in a corrupt KGB officer in charge of the country. If you let these people the right to vote in France, who do you think they're going to pick?

I have a lot more respect for Indians (yes, including people from Kerala and other parts of South India, who are dark-skinned, since apparently you think I have latent racism) than I do for Russians, as they've managed to vote in much more reasonable people and sustain a democracy against all odds.

Why don't we invite 50 million educated Indians to the EU first, before inviting other people? We can even prioritize people from the lower castes if you want to be fair about it.

of course, you'd still want some hardcore vetting because India is on the list of a-hole nations who refuse deportees: crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11025

But, say, Sri-Lanka doesn't seem to be on the list of countries that don't cooperate with deportations, so for them vetting could be more relaxed

So to summarize: the #1 reason for being cautious is that the country of origin of any given person is a rough approximation of what your country would look like if you accepted too many of them

Relaxed

20:44

Because that's not how any of this works? You don't invite, open, close, etc. that's a fantasy and has never really worked that way and this very kind of thinking and the level of disregard for people that is implied in these policies is exactly what undermines the “the equilibrium of order vs. disorder”.

I don't share any of your views on the purpose of immigration policy, civilization, serving citizens first and all the rest but ultimately that's not even the main point. The more fundamental point is that you got the causality backwards, just focussing on the individual as the source of all good and bad. The way you treat them, no matter where they come from matters way more.

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Discussion between Relaxed and Jonath…