If 1 fails, can you fallback to 2?

Personally, I would just go with option 2. Goodwill is a thing. The end of the year is a few months away, and you have a chance of an even better salary. But it's a decision for you to make.

@GregoryCurrie you should make an answer, thats a very valid point and worth the OP's consideration.

@Kilisi It's how I feel, but there is no real justification offered by me. Feel free to integrate what I said into your answer, if it makes sense to do so.

@GregoryCurrie done, put my slant on it, but essentially the same.

What's missing in this description is what your boss thinks of you and whether or not your project is important/successful.

@GregoryCurrie I don't think complete failure is likely, but the implication of the chat I had with my line manager was that I would likely get more if I waited.

@DarkMatter I ahven't worked with him in the past (I've basically lost 2 managers in quick succession and he's the interrim) so I don't belive he has a strong opinion either way, although he did say he wanted to retain me.

@Lewkir I'm seriously not a fan of "finance compares everyone's wages to the market rate" as a way to get a raise. I've had great results by negotiating during periods of uncertainty. On the other hand title changes tend to come after the increase in responsibilities. On the whole I think you're not in an "either or situation".

If you wait, are they willing to give you a target amount for the raise, a bounded range indicating what the raise would be at minimum and at most, or any other kind of assurance that the raise will: 1. Happen; 2: Happen at the end of the year; and 3. Be anything like as much of a raise as you're expecting?

A title change won't pay your bills. End of dilemma, IMO. Most likely you can get both the title change and the money from a different employer. If your negotiating technique is to start by saying "I am a doormat", you will get treated like one.

Don't let these smart foxes get the best of you. Ask for a raise and a serious one, they need you. Investigate how much your market rate would in other similar companies and make sure you get paid the same or leave. The story is always the same, they make promises, promises and promises to just bump you as little as possible while making it look like a big thing. This is their living, and they always prey on the younger, naive guys that don't know how things work. Don't be that guy.

I've basically lost 2 managers in quick succession and he's the interim - then forget that guy; you know more than he does. he did say he wanted to retain me - what he didn't say was that he's there to do a job, which is manage you. He might not have a strong opinion, but ideally for him, you don't go over his head and get a raise. How'd that make him look? That'll make him look like they need to hire a fourth guy.

How long have you been at your current title?

What "budget concerns" are they worried about? They're no longer paying your former manager so that money's been freed up. I suspect that what they mean is "We need some schmuck to do the job while we hunt for someone permanent to take over". Frankly, I wouldn't take the job without the money, but it's your life and your situation and you know it better than I do. Best of luck.

@GregoryCurrie Goodwill, plus $6, will buy you a small coffee at Starbucks.

@Harper I can tell your experiences with managers has not been as good as mine. $6 for that crap from Starbucks?

A word of caution : a company that looses several key staff (did they jump or were they pushed ?) and also wants replacements to do the work for no money could be a sign of a company in financial distress. I would start thinking about parachute preparation. And I would never take extra responsibilities without extra pay and I'd want to see what those responsibilities were in writing. This all sounds far too "trust us, we'll be good to you" and lacks any commitment on there part. I again wonder why previous employees (and was it just managers ?) left ?

end of the year? or end of the financial year? don't make that mistake

@HugoZink I don't think there is one global workplace culture. As I said, for me, that is my decision, based upon my relationship with my manager. I think blanket categorisations that managers are always looking to exploit people are not that helpful.