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00:02
> "A termination is a major reorganization of the Earth's climate system," study lead author Euan Nisbet, a professor emeritus of Earth sciences at Royal Holloway, University of London, told Live Science. "These repeated changes have taken the world from ice ages into the sort of interglacial we have now."
> "Within the termination, which takes thousands of years, there's this abrupt phase, which only takes a few decades," Nisbet said. "During that abrupt phase, the methane soars up, and it's probably driven by tropical wetlands."
> ... But in late 2006, something "very, very odd" happened, he said. Methane started rising again, but there was no dramatic shift in human activity to blame — and researchers were left scratching their heads. Then, in 2013, Nisbet and his colleagues realized this rise was accelerating. By 2020, methane was increasing at the fastest rate on record, he said.
@alphabet In 2008, when oil prices peaked, there was a wave of suicides by Indian farmers, because they lacked the money to buy fertilizer. We are eating oil and natural gas, because oil and natural gas are used to make fertilizer and to ship goods around.
Farmers in India were at the hardest spot in the chain in 2008.
For several decades, technologies of horizontal drilling and fracking developed on US taxpayers' money over the 1970s to 1990s will help humanity keep fuel and fertilizer prices more or less stable. But oil and natural gas deposites obtained through new technology have a steep Hubbert curve.
The next "crisis of 2008" may be more harsh, because oil and gas extraction will be falling along a steeper curve.
The Hubbert curve is an approximation of the production rate of a resource over time. It is a symmetric logistic distribution curve, often confused with the "normal" gaussian function. It first appeared in "Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels," geologist M. King Hubbert's 1956 presentation to the American Petroleum Institute, as an idealized symmetric curve, during his tenure at the Shell Oil Company. It has gained a high degree of popularity in the scientific community for predicting the depletion of various natural resources. The curve is the main component of Hubbert peak theory, which...
> Nearly 400,000 farmers committed suicide in India between 1995 and 2018. This translates into approximately 48 suicides every day.
00:39
On this day in history: Council of People's Commissars introduces the Metric System in Russia, 1918.
01:00
The Transpolar Railway, a long rail line along the North started by Stalin. Construction was stopped after his death.
Thousands of km of rail just sit there, unvisited, in the wild.
@Robusto he's not far off, just that we now know major environmental changes happen way before water gets to its boiling point.
01:15
So he just assumed we would keep burning coal right up until we reached 212 degrees?
@CowperKettle Great railroad engineering that, putting rails on a 20° list to one side.
@alphabet imagine what people would be thinking when it's 210 deg F. "Oh it's bloody hot, maybe we should burn some more coal to cool off"
01:39
> We find no evidence for the emergence of reasoning abilities in LLMs arxiv.org/abs/2309.01809
Phew
Proletariat sans culottes
Noun: culot m (plural culots)
  1. base, bottom (of an object)
  2. (metallurgy) residue, slag
  3. (colloquial) cheek, nerve (effrontery)
  4. architectural ornament, e.g. starting point of volutes
  5. residue on the bottom of a smoker's pipe; its darkening by use is called culotter
  6. (metonymically) the last-come person, e.g. youngest child, worst loser in a competition
From cul +‎ -ot.
02:07
> Why did God create Eve on the last day of Creation?
To avoid listening to her helpful advice during the creation of other things.
Haha aww.
03:04
Re Eve's creation, I recommend this wonderful paper: moscow.sci-hub.se/33/c4043f607cab913383500fa4281f49a0/…
 
1 hour later…
04:32
@alphabet Nice!
05:18
This week will be 2 to 4 degrees C warmer than average.
Thank you, methane from African soils.
@Robusto Quite sinuous and serpentine.
> The blackbird sang, the skies were clear and clean.
⁠We bowled along a road that curved its spine
⁠Superbly sinuous and serpentine
Thro' silent symphonies of glowing green.
 
1 hour later…
06:29
The Coming Wave, by Mustafa Saleyman, on how to control the dangers of AI and biotech.
06:44
@AndrewLeach I use alone and fruit as my first two words. Not great choices, but they often work. Sometimes I vary it with along and suite.
I figure
. . . y is an obvious ending and s often an obvious start.
07:16
Wordle 814 3/6

⬜🟩🟨⬜🟨
⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
07:28
@M.A.R. That's not that different than what we do today: "Oh it's bloody hot, let's turn on the air conditioning to cool off".
08:08
@MetaEd Maybe he has an email which could be mailed?
Tragedy for two oil companies 🤣
The second one is "Indian Oil".
The first one already uses the word Bharat.
09:07
@Xanne which dangers of biotech?
@M.A.R. Specifically, artificial DNA,
Or perhaps, RNA, to create viruses, perhaps alter germlines and thus “design’ humans. He is not viewed as a crackpot in any way, but rather as a man making an effort to encourage control of some of theses developments maybe throu
through government.
lL
lots of well+known people, scientists and others, are supporting his ideas or at least their careful consideration.
Containment is what he wants. some governments, alone or collectively, to oparate to do research, decide what’s safe enough to let out.
@AndrewLeach so what do you-all think?,
09:47
@Xanne it is true that some newer biotechnologies could use some of the caution exercised in other medical fields, but IMHO they're no more dangerous than knives. . . . If we didn't know which parts of the knife can cut
10:18
: Daily Octordle #595
5️⃣6️⃣
8️⃣9️⃣
🕚🕛
🕐4️⃣
Score: 68
 
3 hours later…
13:31
#Worldle #598 1/6 (100%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🎉
⭐⭐⭐🪙
https://worldle.teuteuf.fr
Grigory Mumrikov has come out of jail.
In the runup to 9 May 2022, his friend wanted to organize a pro-peace protest, but then changed his mind. However, they were arrested on 10 May under made-up charges.
And then he was given a year of jail under some additional made-up charges.
So he had it ultra-easy. Just a year of jail for a peace protest that did not happen.
🌎 Sep 11, 2023 🌍
🔥 27 | Avg. Guesses: 4.32
🟨🟩 = 2

globle-game.com
#globle
Another lucky first guess.
Once you have the ranges down, this game isn't so hard. Except for islands ...
Wordle 814 4/6

⬛🟨⬛🟩⬛
⬛⬛🟨🟨⬛
⬛🟨🟨🟩🟨
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
14:03
@CowperKettle -no- evidence? Surely the claims of any kind of formal logical reasoning are overhyped, but absolutely -no- ability to reason?
Daily Octordle #595
4️⃣6️⃣
🕚8️⃣
🕛9️⃣
🔟2️⃣
Score: 62
But yes, I've seen all sorts of papers coming out that study the abstract reasoning abilities of LLMs and show that they don't work as well as claimed. The nuance is that for very few variables (eg 2) and a well studied concrete context, most LLMs can do better than chance on some logic problems (eg modus ponens, double negation) but the LLMs do not generalize (eg they don't do well on contextless, formal logic eg ~~A->A (but in words).
My first reaction is 'Why would anybody in their right mind try to use an LLM to do formal reasoning (or even informal) and have it run some program using that (internal LLM) logic?' ...
but then I realize oh yeah, there are -lots- of people not in their right mind (or more likely just want to make money off of you).
Short answer: mostly no. and when it looks like a yes, you probably just got lucky.
@Mitch I am an AI program employing a Large Language Model. The question you asked me is "Can you reason?" (By "you" I expect you mean "me.") A better question might be: Can anyone reason? Kant argues that there are synthetic judgments such as the connection of cause and effect (e.g., "... Every effect has a cause.") where no analysis of the subject will produce the predicate. Kant reasons that statements such as those found in geometry and Newtonian physics are synthetic judgments.
Therefore, I reason that since my judgments are similarly synthetic, I can probably reason just about as well as you can.
14:47
Me: translate the following passage entirely into emojis: "Therefore, I reason that since my judgments are similarly synthetic, I can probably reason just about as well as you can."

ChatGPT:
🤖🤔🤔🤖💭🧠📝💭📚🤔📚🤖💡🤖🧠📚🤖💭📝🤖🤔🧠📚🤔📝🤖💭📚🤔📝🤖💡🤔📝🤖💭📚🤖💡🤔📝🤖
🧠📚🤔📝🤖💭📚🤔📝🤖💡🤔📝🤖🧠📚🤔📝🤖💭📚🤔📝🤖💡🤔📝🤖🧠📚🤔📝🤖💭📚🤔📝🤖💡🤔📝🤖
🧠📚🤔📝🤖💭📚🤔📝🤖💡🤔📝🤖🧠📚🤔📝🤖💭📚🤔📝🤖💡🤔📝🤖🧠📚🤔📝🤖💭📚🤔📝🤖💡🤔📝🤖
🧠📚🤔📝🤖💭📚🤔📝🤖💡🤔📝🤖🧠📚🤔📝🤖💭📚🤔📝🤖💡🤔📝🤖🧠📚🤔📝🤖💭📚🤔📝🤖💡🤔📝🤖
As you can see, ChatGPT is somewhat repetitive, showing a lack of confidence in its own thoughts.
@Mitch Some of the papers are asking questions that one can easily find the answer to via google and then getting surprised they got the right answer out of the LLM, but when the problem is restated in a different way (which nobody remembers to do before publishing), LLMs don't answer correctly at all
@Mitch Maybe you just can't appreciate the subtlety of its synthesis?
15:30
Rootl game #102

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

🟩🟩🟩⬛🟩🟩🟩⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

🟩🟩⬛🟩🟩⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
15:54
@Cerberus This was also true of diner tables in the South. Not sure if Southerners still chew that much gum and similarly dispose of it.
16:04
> Microsoft has started to roll out a new “background removal” tool in its Paint app on Windows 11 Insider builds.

With this tool, users will be able to remove the background from any picture with the click of a button. The new version is presently rolling out to Windows 11 Insiders in the Dev and Canary channels.
@Vikas I'm guessing that wouldn't work for pictures like this one:
16:58
> Scientists found a new dinosaur in India that looks like a mini-Brontosaurus and they named it Tharosaurus indicus discovermagazine.com/the-sciences/…
@Robusto Kant beat this reasoning.
@Robusto If it doesn't remove background I'll remove Windows 11.
Kant beat a hard-boiled egg in the morning.
17:26
> An international team of medical researchers has announced the development of a blood test for chronic fatigue syndrome. The test is reportedly 91% accurate. medicalxpress.com/news/…
17:54
Too tired to read the article.
Me: Translate the following string of emojis into English: "🤖🤔🤔🤖💭🧠📝💭📚🤔📚🤖💡🤖🧠📚🤖💭📝🤖🤔
🧠📚🤔📝🤖💭📚🤔📝
🤖💡🤔📝🤖💭📚🤖💡🤔📝🤖🧠📚
🤔📝🤖💭📚🤔📝🤖💡🤔📝🤖🧠📚
🤔📝🤖💭📚🤔📝🤖💡🤔📝🤖🧠📚
🤔📝🤖💭📚🤔📝🤖💡🤔📝🤖🧠📚
🤔📝🤖💭📚🤔📝🤖💡🤔📝🤖🧠📚"

ChatGPT:
The emoji text "🤖🤔🤔🤖💭🧠📝💭📚
🤔📚🤖💡🤖🧠📚🤖💭📝🤖🤔🧠📚
🤔📝🤖💭📚🤔📝🤖💡🤔📝🤖🧠📚
🤔📝🤖💭📚🤔📝🤖💡🤔📝🤖🧠📚"
does not appear to have a clear or specific meaning. It may simply be a random combination of emojis or a creative expression.
I mean it sorta got a lot of the same symbols. so congrats for that?
@alphabet Your past tense is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.
The sale of chewing gum in Singapore has been illegal since 1992. Some motivations for the ban included stopping the placement of used chewing gum in inappropriate and costly places, such as the sensors of subway doors, inside lock cylinders, and on elevator buttons. Since 2004, an exception has existed for therapeutic, dental, and nicotine chewing gum, which can be bought from a doctor or registered pharmacist. It is not illegal to chew gum in Singapore, but it is against the law to import it and sell it, apart from the aforementioned exceptions. According to a BBC News article, it is legal for...
18:44
Rootl game #102

⬛⬛🟩🟩⬛
🟩⬛🟩🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

⬛🟩🟩🟩⬛🟩🟩⬛
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

🟩🟩⬛🟩⬛🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
18:55
#waffle598 3/5

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
🟩⭐🟩⬜🟩
🟩🟩⭐🟩🟩
🟩⬜🟩⭐🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

🔥 streak: 2
wafflegame.net
Daily Quordle 595
🟥3️⃣
8️⃣9️⃣
m-w.com/games/quordle/
[...]
⬜🟩⬜⬜⬜
⬜🟨🟨⬜⬜
⬜🟨⬜🟩⬜
⬜🟩🟩🟩🟩
⬜🟩🟩🟩🟩
⬜🟩🟩🟩🟩
⬜🟩🟩🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
Grrr...
Daily Octordle #595
7️⃣8️⃣
5️⃣🕛
6️⃣4️⃣
9️⃣🔟
Score: 61
Wordle 814 4/6

⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜
⬜🟨🟨⬜🟨
🟨🟨⬜🟨🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
19:27
Wordle 814 4/6

🟨🟨⬛🟨⬛
🟨⬛⬛🟨🟩
⬛🟩🟨⬛🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
19:38
#Worldle #598 1/6 (100%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🎉
⭐⭐⭐🪙
https://worldle.teuteuf.fr
🌎 Sep 11, 2023 🌍
🔥 1 | Avg. Guesses: 6.36
🟨🟨🟧🟧🟥🟥🟩 = 7

globle-game.com
#globle
 
1 hour later…
21:12
@Mitch One could interpret that response as sarcasm.
@Robusto It -is- trained on the text of the internet, which has been mostly scripted by Millenials and Gen-Z. Sarcasm is the coin of the youths.
But more importantly, the storm that caused the awful flooding in Greece/Turkey/Bulgaria last week moved across the Mediterranean has been causing awful flooding in Libya and is expected to do the same to Egypt.
-and- interestingly, is -not- the same storm that caused all the awful flooding last Sunday (a week, ie not yesterday) in Spain.
-but- the two separated storms are related in that they were pushed into place by the heat dome over northern Europe that is causing unseasonably hot weather there.
So -not- the same 'storm' but parts of related interacting weather patterns.
Before you say I'm making heavy weather of all this, let me say it first.
Or rather
oh never mind
Literally heavy weather
I just had to get that out.
I had to bring it up because...
Sep 8 at 12:45, by Mitch
Science question: was the weather pattern that flooded Spain last Sunday the same one that flooded Greece and Bulgaria and Turkey yesterday?
You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.
And the answer is 'No, but they are related'.
@Robusto Well ya kinda do if you're not there at the time.
Is that why they called themselves the 'Weathermen'?
21:27
shrugs
This question made me re-realize that we don't have serifs in the related questions....ooooof
Did they have a women's auxiliary team called the 'Lady Weathermen'?
shrugs
Wouldn't "Weather women" be better?
@Laurel Como?
@Robusto Look man it was the sixties
Weatherpersons?
Or, to be inclusive of inanimate objects, Whetherpersons?
21:34
@Robusto The sidebar of linked and related questions!
Wait staff
Weather staff.
@Laurel Oh. Well, that was some designer's choice. Good luck getting that changed.
@Laurel There's a mix of serif and sans serif on main. I would never ever have noticed except by pointing it out.
Yeah, I think someone mentioned serifing back when the re-design originally came out
Maybe multiple people
Does the mix or, where there is no mix, the lack of serifs pose a difficulty?
21:37
It's not usually a problem, but it can get confusing with IPA because some of those are unfamiliar characters
Sans-serif is more readable at small sizes. That's probably why they did it.
@Laurel I look up anything that's weird. I just never know which 'a' is which
I think mixing serif vs sans mostly just pisses certain people off (let's be honest, it's graphic designers and @tchrist)
In high-school, I wasn't cool enough to get into font club.
I'm not as bad, but I was upset for months because my default email font changed and I couldn't figure out how to get it back to what was in my signature
And now I have to see it in other people's emails
21:40
Yeah...features whose edit access is hidden.
But I'm basically a solo web developer so I have to have some font sensitivity because nobody else is going to come and fix it
I'm always annoyed at copy pasting and having the (invisibly) formatting copied over
I can never tell if, when I've gotten rid of the formatting, if I've removed the formatting or if I've put extra overlaying (invisible) parens around some text
@Laurel Papyrus, Comic sans, and Wingdings for the win
@Mitch You're probably still not cool enough for that. Neither am I. That is a very exclusive group.
@Robusto There was an episode or two of 'Malcolm in the Middle' where Dewey, the youngest brother who was always put in special ed classes because he was 'weird', had formed a 'font club' and I have to be honest my first reaction was sorta like 'cool'.
21:55
@Laurel: Here's the HNQ in serif. I do think that's harder to read at the font size.
Yeah, I agree with you there
I can't remember why some people wanted serifs other than the fact that it looks sophisticated and it's what we always had
There are some other sites with serifs but it's rare
My pet peeve about the site graphics is the logo cartouche, which in this manifestation should be centered. Also the dowdy colors, which make me think of schoolmarms and rulers on the knuckles and boredom ... vast, vast boredom.
-4
Q: Bored with the dowdy colors, I seek solace in drink

Robusto Blessings on thee, little man, Barefoot boy, with cheek of tan! Yeah, that's how it starts. The John Greenleaf Whittier poem, that is. From 1855. Last time I looked, it was 158 years later. We don't write poetry like that anymore, and we sure don't talk the way they did back then. Hell, th...

Obviously this was not a popular position to take.
> English is living, moving, growing, changing, evolving. Despite the deference shown to the Oxford English Dictionary and its etymological citations (which, it must be said, often substitute for actual answers on the site), I don't think a site about English should look like it was printed on vellum. I'm just saying.
I still hold these truths to be self-evident.
54
Q: Did you ever wish you could have a Hot Dog Stand-themed meta.stackoverflow.com?

John RaschAre you depressed by all the gr[ae]y colors plaguing meta? Do you wish you had some exuberance on your favorite website? Are you hungry? Are you still reading this? Well, worry no longer. I'd like to think I've developed a solution to all of your problems with a user style mimicking the abortio...

Yeah, but it's not my job to put in the work to change their colors. The choices they made bespeak an attitude toward English that I find musty, dusty, rusty, and crusty.
22:17
@Robusto There was also this: meta.stackoverflow.com/q/416980/6083675 but it was for SO
I mean, I get your point. Also, did you see Writing's newish theme?
22:29
Oh crap I just saw this happen and got chills lol
He has returned!
22:56
He managed to stay off ELU dope for almost two months but just relapsed... So addictive.
It's kinda spooky because when I mentioned him earlier in this chat, that was actually a super ping, so it was sent to his SE inbox
23:38
@Laurel Yeah. It's better than before, certainly.
It's also pretty brown, but at least the entire page isn't "agéd manuscript tan" in color
@jlliagre Or else he just got busy with other stuff. Maybe his company is on some kind of deadline.
@Laurel Yes.
I wonder if there's anyone who actually really likes the color of the page or if it's just comfortably familiar
It certainly makes the pale red of deleted posts look a lot like regular posts
It is rather brown/beige/whatever, but I think it's better than ours. Less like you can smell the bookworms laying eggs between the folio signatures.
That said, worse still would be the "generic" SE look, for sites too small to merit even SE-level graphic attention.
Those are all generic sans-serif. Even headlines. Yuk.
They have been getting around to a lot of new designs, but they didn't promote them, which was terrible
Like I think the newest might be Islam SE
23:46
@Laurel Looks pretty good.
Yeah I think so too
The only new themes I had problems with were all the ones that had black links and Gardening's theme where the background doesn't scroll with the text and it unsettles me

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