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12:00 AM
This says a lot about their characters.
 
@Cerberus we all knew back then
 
Yeah.
 
12:22 AM
Even Fox News silenced the White House during a press statement as it was alleging election fraud without evidence.
 
12:40 AM
@tchrist: Another record for covid cases in NM. 464 in Bernalillo County and 93 in Sandoval County. Those are double the next worst day. This is scary.
We're headed toward lockdown, for sure.
 
1:05 AM
In some ways, Europe is now doing worse than America again.
We're around the peak of a second wave.
 
@Cerberus You hope it's the peak.
As do we.
But I fear it's not.
 
Well, strong measures are in place, which managed to end the first wave well enough.
 
I hope it works.
 
So it stands to reason they will end the second wave, too.
 
I think we'll see more stringent measures here.
 
1:13 AM
We have seen a steady decline in hospitalisations here over the past seven days.
Patients in intensive care are also past the peak.
 
Good.
 
Let's hope it lasts. Ours is going nowhere but up.
 
@Robusto If bars and restaurants are closed, and events cancelled, you'll probably make the turn again.
The decrease in positive tests we're seeing is almost unrealistic.
 
@Cerberus That's what it will take, for sure.
 
1:16 AM
Maybe there will be a small correction tomorrow or Wednesday.
Tests are a somewhat unreliable metric anyway.
But who's complaining when a metric points in the desired direction.
@Robusto Is everything still open near you?
 
@Cerberus Pretty much. There are restrictions on occupancy and hours, but most places are open.
 
Hmm.
Restrictions help.
But, if the figures are still going up after a few weeks of restrictions, you need more.
 
@Cerberus No new restrictions for a month. More no doubt coming.
 
Hmm a month is long.
 
@Rob a question your way:
0
Q: What is English counterpart to Japanese phrase, “往生際が悪い” – behave disgracefully at the end”?

Yoichi OishiI was at a loss when I was asked by my friend how to translate a Japanese expression, “oujogiwa ga warui - 往生際が悪い,” which literally means “die in wrong (disgraceful) manner” into English. The phrase is applied to someone who doesn’t concede his or her wrong-doing, failure, loss of game, or defeat...

 
1:31 AM
0
A: What is English counterpart to Japanese phrase, “往生際が悪い” – behave disgracefully at the end”?

RobustoI would suggest the person is a poor or sore loser poor loser : a person who becomes upset or angry when he or she loses Merriam Webster For example, here's a recent usage regarding the American presidential election. 'Trump looking like a poor loser' as US President begins legal battle agains...

 
@Robusto I keep thinking that, and so does everyone around me, but our governor is holding off for now. Yours is on Biden’s transition team. I would be a little surprised if Polis and Grisham diverged in their approach, scary as it all looks.
@Robusto We just came in at ~3500 today, which is +500 above yesterday's 7-day moving average.
 
@tchrist Yeah, it's not looking good.
 
Hmm.
It never got as bad as in March here.
 
They both have actual, good data available to them that isn't reflected there. Hospital beds, ICUs, etc.
 
1:41 AM
And we didn't have that peak in July.
 
As far as I can tell, Polis and Grisham are both begging people to stay home as much as possible, and to cancel anything social.
 
Thanksgiving is going to suck this year.
 
Polis is trying to get people to call off Thanksgiving in hope of saving Christmas. I doubt either will be saved.
 
@tchrist Yeah, I saw that. I think about it every time I go out.
 
Polis: “Nobody should be staying home and not socializing because they are in this county or that county,” he said. “You should be doing it everywhere in our state right now. Cancel your plans to see others who are not in your household for the next few weeks. Put them off.”
 
1:48 AM
We pretty much stayed home for a month or so in March/April.
 
I was in the hospital Friday on an unrelated issue and they said the place was full of Covid patients. Now I have to sweat the next few days, wondering if I'm exposed.
 
But now we still visit friends occasionally and with distance and ventilation.
@Robusto Small chance. But I understand your nervousness.
If such it is.
 
I hope the chance is small.
And today I went to the supermarket and it was packed.
I shouldn't have to go for some time now.
 
@Robusto I was there today, unrelated, just regular periodic blood draws to make sure I haven't turned into a lizard. They aren't full up but my goodness are they being careful!
You check in by calling them from your car. Even then you still wait in your car until they phone you back when they're ready. Only a few in at a time, with door checks. People in real N95s, and clean.
 
Supermarkets may seem scary, but I believe no big clusters of infections have been traced to supermarkets.
 
1:53 AM
@tchrist Yeah. And I forgot my best mask, had only the paper one.
 
@Robusto Get some KN95s. They're available now.
@Cerberus Ours have. See "Retail/Grocery".
 
@tchrist I see, thanks. I just did that.
 
@tchrist Hmm interesting.
 
@Robusto There are various CDC test results for those, like this one.
There are others that you can find on their site that they've found to be scams.
 
@tchrist I don't see any on Amazon with the headband. They all have ear loops.
 
2:03 AM
@Cerberus You can only get data like that publicly in states controlled by Democrats. In those controlled by Trumpistas, it’s deliberately suppressed so you can't know which establishments in a city, state, or county are dangerous..
 
That is unfortunate.
 
@Robusto YES. Damn it. So what you have to do is use that light wound-tape that looks like it's from a scotch tape dispenser to seal the top by the bridge of your nose. If it steams your glasses in cold weather, you're exhaling out the cracks up there.
Not the super-sticky kind that never comes off.
 
The Pfizer vaccine is getting good press now.
 
Yes, but we know nearly nothing. We don't know if it cuts down on serious or critical cases -- or deaths -- in those ~10% who still get the disease even with the real vaccine.
And we don't have enough safety data. That takes more time to tease out than efficacy.
 
> 'Diseases of despair', such as substance abuse, alcohol dependency, and suicidal thoughts and behaviours, have soared in the US over the past decade, reveals an analysis of health insurance claims data published in the online journal BMJ Open.

And they now affect all ages, with suicidal thoughts and behaviours among the under 18s rocketing by 287% between 2009 and 2018, and by 210% among 18-34 year olds, the analysis shows.
 
2:07 AM
And we don't know how it affects different ages.
@CowperKettle This is an especially risky year for all that.
There were 94 cases, and the reported efficacy of over 90% means that fewer than 9 of those who got sick got the real vaccine. But we don't know anything about those people, their cases, the outcomes, etc.
It's absolutely very important news, far better than anyone expected. But remember how much we don't' know yet.
 
@tchrist Yes. And how voracious the media are for news on this subject.
 
That's what's driving this. It's not the vaccine people themselves, who know better.
 
@tchrist Yeah, I wonder what the margin of errors is with numbers so low.
 
Eight isn't much, no. Did the 8 or fewer people who got the vaccine but also came down with it share anything like age or sex or occupation or a million other things?
Did they have just as serious cases clinically as the placebo group?
But if it's say 8 vaccine cases and say 86 placebo cases, that's still statistically significant.
So it tells you a bit of what you really badly want to know. There's a lot more to go.
 
All good questions.
 
2:18 AM
Did they spread it to others just as easily? What was their viral load along the course of their illness? A vaccine guy will ask more questions than whose answers you can ever fit in a headline.
Don't try to hard to parse that last one.
 
@tchrist It parses just fine.
 
It won't be possible to tease out rare safety issues until you have big numbers and long timespans, and that won't happen during Stage 3 trials. It will have to come in once it's deployed en masse, over time.
This is nothing new. But it does help people understand why it takes years to win approval normally.
 
What I worry about more even than inhalation is microscopic droplets floating into my eyes.
 
@tchrist It is significant, but I wonder what the margin of error would be. Could be like 60–95%.
 
2:29 AM
Time will tell.
 
(I'm just mentioning arbitrary numbers as an example.)
No, you can calculate these things.
I'm sort of teaching this at the moment...
But too lazy to look it up.
And you'll need more information, like average and standard deviation.
But, yes, all of those questions you asked are highly relevant.
@tchrist The Danish mink mutation changes lots of code around where the spike is located.
Which is a serious risk for vaccines.
That is the significance of the Danish situation.
But I'm afraid it is too late to contain it.
Time will tell what the effect will be.
Thank God we are developing many different vaccines.
 
@Cerberus What we do to mink freaks me out. But so too most of the other animals we raise and kill in inhuman and unthinkable conditions.
@Cerberus How nice for you. People I know have stayed home since March. Period.
 
But so far only mink pose this particular risk to us?
@tchrist I think very few people do that here.
I wish my parents were a bit more careful, but no.
 
@Cerberus Look at our numbers, and roll your own shroud.
 
My parents babysit my nieces.
They stopped for a month or two.
But not any more.
 
2:40 AM
That's worrying.
 
My father could drop dead any moment from a variety of causes. They feel it is worth the risk.
To enjoy what life has to offer for a few more years or months.
But I wish they would keep their distance from my brother more.
Neither party is nearly as conscientious about it as I should like.
 
@Cerberus Do you imagine they would be so cavalier if they lived here?
I could tell some of the front-line people today were tired of it all, weary.
Just a few. Not most of them.
 
@tchrist What's the take-away? It is a longish article.
My parents live in a medium-risk region, and they babysit in a high-risk region.
 
The takeaway is that it's ravaging us, and people still won't do enough to protect themselves or others.
> “This can be hard to do for nine months,” Pritish Tosh, an infectious disease physician and medical director for emergency management at the Mayo Clinic, said about the precautions we’ve all been asked to take. “And now we’re coming up on the holidays, and people coming back from college, and people wanting to have gatherings with their families. These are decisions that people have to make — is it safe to bring an 80-year-old with multiple comorbidities into your home?”
Yes, it's hard to do for nine months. And it's even more important than ever, but there is no collective will to do so.
 
I would not receive my father.
But that is easy to do.
If he could not see his grandchildren at all, possibly for the rest of his life, that would probably not be worth it to him.
 
2:53 AM
He can see them. That doesn't mean he should come close to them.
But again, it depends on the incidence in your community.
 
They tried that for a short while.
But children who cannot talk cannot abide by such rules.
And it is not the children themselves who pose the greatest risk, possibly, but rather the fact that my parents stay at my brother's house.
One day a week.
 
My childhood friend who's been sick with it finally tested negative yesterday. And is wife has not become positive. Somehow.
@Cerberus "Stay" as in for many hours?
Inside?
 
Yeah, it's not an extremely infectious disease, not like measles. That happens a lot.
@tchrist Stay the night, even.
At least my mother does that.
She cannot bear to get up at 6–7 AM to drive there and arrive in time.
 
It's spread by aerosols.
 
Well, that is a smaller factor than larger droplets.
But they will be exposed to both.
At least I think my brother and his wife don't receive many others besides the two families.
But it worries me nonetheless.
But I do understand their decision. I think.
They just love the babysitting too much.
At least my mother does; I'm not sure my father comes along every time.
 
3:01 AM
Yes, it spreads less easily than the measles, but that's a low bar to clear. It spreads more easily than influenza.
Are you calquing "receive" when you use it like that? It's not something we would say here.
It means having someone over to your own home, right?
We just say having people over.
My local family, who are a bit younger than me with young children and far more social contacts, have only had people over outside since this started. And even then at a distance. They bought an outside heater like you sometimes see in colder climes to prolong that farther into the dark season.
 
3:21 AM
@tchrist Yes, but @Cerberus is probably using it in its posh British sense of entertaining guests.
 
I suppose so, though I wouldn't call it posh, just not informal like "have someone over".
@tchrist People here only did that during the first few months.
Some very frail people may still do so.
 
@Cerberus These days anything that is not informal is posh.
 
To you, perhaps.
I don't use that term anyway.
 
@Cerberus That is such a snooty thing to say.
 
Why, thank you.
 
3:26 AM
A very proper little lord you are, innit?
 
Whatever you say, dear boy.
 
Not exactly on topic here, but then again, most of what is posted here, isn't. On the occasion of the US elections, I'm posting this video, which just this morning popped up in my Youtube feed, or whatever it's called. (It's scary how much Google knows about you.)
It's a nice short video.
Note that this video leaves out a ton of stuff I personally know about. And of course it's out of date, too.
 
@Cerberus How old?
@FaheemMitha if nothing is on-topic, then everything is.
also, chomsky is so depressing
 
3:51 AM
What is going on with this graph?
 
@skullpatrol Aren't those all the same word?
 
Yes.
 
Does Google Ngrams distinguish capitalization?
 
yup
There's a case-insensitive option @FaheemMitha
 
@skullpatrol I see. Curious.
 
3:59 AM
I'm wondering why the sudden drop started in 2001?
 
@Mitch About 2 and 4 years old.
@skullpatrol It's probably some artefact?
 
Like data collection?
 
Could be.
 
strange
 
@MattE.Эллен Yeah, :) that’s the best acknowledgement line.
 
4:09 AM
I would take my conclusions based on Ngrams with a grain of salt.
 
yeah, I agree
 
@Cerberus Super fun age. But really tiring.
 
Yeah.
 
2 years old rally tiring
back breaking tiring
 
The 4yo has a more difficult character...
 
4:10 AM
oh. character. hm...
let's say...active
people come with personalities that their parents didn't choose for them.
 
Contrary.
 
yet, parents try to force their personality on them
 
@skullpatrol there have been other strong anomalies noted in the newer parts.
There is no linguistic reason for such a drastic change
@Cerberus contrary with the grandparents too?
 
I'm losing faith in Ngram anyway
 
@Mitch Sure.
 
4:15 AM
@skullpatrol It's so... convenient, no other such corpora easily available
 
She was impossible as a baby, always angry and crying. It got better when she learned to talk. But she is still incredibly stubborn and unlikely to do what you want.
 
@Cerberus sometimes things are different with grandparents. I guess sometimes not.
 
She is better with my mother than with me or the au pair, to be sure.
 
Did you try my advice yet? @KnightadmiresChappo
 
they get heavier as they get older and so picking them up harder
 
4:22 AM
Like any form of "conditioning" it's going to be difficult the first few times @KnightadmiresChappo
 
I have a nephew like that
 
imo, parents are way too over-protective these days
sure, I realize it's a natural response, but their over doing it
/rant
 
4:46 AM
Damn it, more bad Latin! It’s been a miserable pandemic amid an annus horribilus. What's the matter with all these doofussus anyway?
 
I'm guessing people have seen the Pfizer news announcement, claiming their vaccine is 90% effective based on stage 3 trials.
I noticed because my pharma stocks just crashed. :-)
That's an Indian publication.
 
5:02 AM
Yes, it's great news. In a couple of months vaccination will be in full swing.
 
@CowperKettle That sounds early, if you are referring to this vaccine. But you also said something about a Russian vaccine. I don't know any details about that one.
 
They promise to roll out 70 000 doses this week.
 
@CowperKettle Which vaccine?
 
By the end of this month, they promise to produce and ship 500 000 doses of Sputnik V
In December, a further 1.5 mn doses
Finally, doctors will start undergoing vaccination in Yekaterinburg
Maybe as soon as this weekend
 
@CowperKettle Ok, so you're referring to the Russian vaccine. What's the efficacy rate for that one?
 
5:06 AM
Or safety? :)
 
@FaheemMitha Nobody knows.
 
@CowperKettle Well, that's encouraging.
 
Nobody knows. It's very haphazardly "researched"
Yep )))
 
How Trumpian.
 
I never knew that the Russian pharmacology was so degraded until this vaccine rolled out. The TV is keeping up a propaganda story about how it's the very first one in the world and it's very good.
I hoped that at least in extremis the Russian pharma industry will adhere to standards. Haha.
 
5:08 AM
Best of luck. You may need it.
 
Because of the constant propaganda on TV, some 60% of Russians say they would not get vaccinated with it.
 
Interesting. It's having the opposite of its intended effect?
 
Personally, I'd wait for something with reliable data.
Vaccines can be quite dangerous if not properly handled.
 
It's like in the "Stalingrad" book, where Soviet soldiers were giving themselves up to the encircled Germans, and said "there was so much propaganda about you being encircled, that we thought it was surely a lie".
 
ha
@Cerberus The virus did not become less dangerous after the first few months. Nothing changed. It's a wildfire looking for fuel.
> Like a wildfire, the virus relentlessly seeks out fuel (human hosts), devastating some areas while sparing others. It will continue spreading until we achieve sufficient herd immunity – when 50 to 70% of the population has developed protective antibodies – to significantly slow transmission. We will achieve herd immunity either through widespread infection or an effective and widely available vaccine. No amount of official happy talk will change that course.
"Only you can prevent forest fires." —Smokey the Bear
 
5:22 AM
90% seems pretty high. I wonder how good their data is. I don't suppose they've had any peer reviewed stuff published. I don't even know if that's standard procedure.
I once worked in a clinical trials group at Duke. And very boring it was. So I should know more about this.
 
6:00 AM
@skullpatrol Yes pal! It’s like fooling your brain by your brain, but I’m trying.
@Mitch I’m feeling like not to write Forewords, I think writing it would make it very artificial. What you suggest? Should I leave it?
 
6:40 AM
@KnightadmiresChappo exactly
 
@skullpatrol Just curious, why you have put that in italics?
 
 
2 hours later…
8:49 AM
Because, "fooling your brain by your brain" is exactly what you're trying to do. So I used italics to emphasize that you have an error-free understanding of your purpose @KnightadmiresChappo
Good question, pal!
 
9:43 AM
> Analysis of patient data from Cleveland Clinic's COVID-19 registry also revealed that melatonin usage was associated with a nearly 30 percent reduced likelihood of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) after adjusting for age, race, smoking history and various disease comorbidities. Notably, the reduced likelihood of testing positive for the virus increased from 30 to 52 percent for African Americans when adjusted for the same variables.
 
OH YEAH, I"M SUPERMAN
Or Homelander but I don't think anyone here has watched The Boys.
It has some religion bashing you might like, Cowp
 
10:03 AM
@skullpatrol Thank you Palma
 
:-D
 
10:16 AM
Pal o' mine
 
10:34 AM
:-)
Palorama
 
> "partner, mate, chum," slang, 1680s, said to be from Romany (English Gypsy) pal "brother, comrade," a variant of continental Romany pral, plal, phral, which are probably from Sanskrit bhrata "brother" (from PIE root *bhrater- "brother"). Colloquial extended form palsy-walsy is attested from 1930. Pally (adj.) is attested by 1895.
3
 
11:40 AM
@CowperKettle Do you think melatonin protects against Covid-19 or masks some positive tests?
 
@Xanne I've no idea! I still havent read up on this
Putin has just announced that Russia will soon register its third covid vaccine znak.com/2020-11-10/…
 
Nice description of “pal”, Pal!
 
Just a general concept here. Incidence in areas with greatest deaths/pop earlier have had lower incidences, but that’s changing—because immunity from having the disease only lasts for 3-4 months. So the more lockdown, the less herd immunity, Back to ground zero, except treatment is better and the vulnerable are better protected, so feath rare drops.
I think I’ll have a melatonin.
 
12:02 PM
I have a round-the-clock trauma unit 700 meters from my home, and it has been closed today, with all spare doctors shifted to work with covid.
I remember visiting this unit several times.
Once at half-hour past midnight, when a car with a jet bike trailing behind it grazed a fellow bicyclist. We bandaged her and accompanied her to the trauma unit, where her leg was treated and stitched up. She had a torn ligament.
 
Death rate, that is. versus feath rare, which sounds like it ought to mean something but doesn’t.
 
12:16 PM
 
12:45 PM
 
1:20 PM
Itr's funny but the best forward was written by himself for his autobiography, an intentional break in convention.
@M.A.R. It's all antifa
 
2:20 PM
[ SmokeDetector | MS ] Bad keyword in answer, blacklisted username, potentially bad keyword in answer, toxic answer detected (257): All to win and to lose? by Donald Trump on english.SE
 
Hey, we should not discourage Donald Trump on his way to knowledge.
 
@tchrist No, indeed. But two things did change:
1. The number of infectious people dropped from hundreds of thousands to a few thousand.
2. We got to know the virus better.
For example, we found out that the virus was somewhat less deadly than first supposed. And that it was rarely spread by touching surfaces. And that almost all those in intensive care in Amsterdam were poor people of foreign descent at some point. And that people with Crohn's are probably not a risk group. Etc.
 
@CowperKettle What are the mom and daughter saying to each other?
(autotranslate ain't doing it)
 
2:36 PM
The mortality is much lower during the second wave, also because a much larger proportion of infected are now younger people.
So I think all of those factors have led people to treat the epidemic somewhat differently.
Oh, and it's also the duration that makes people change their behaviour. Certain things become much harder to put up with after a longer period of time.
 
3:00 PM
@Mitch "Mama, you've got an SMS!" -- "Liza, get away! Get away!"
> Мама, тебе СМСка пришла (Mama, tebye SMSka prishla!)
> Mom, to you (tebye) SMS message (SMSka) came (prishla)!
SMSka is feminine, hence prishla
For "man" that would be prishol (masculine)
For "message" that would be prishlo (neuter)
For plural messages, that would be prishli (plural)
The infinitive form of the verb is priyti (to come)
I wanted to come - Ya khotel priyti
The continuous infinitive is prikhodit'
You should not have come - Tebe ne nado bylo prikhodit'
A church parish is prikhod, because people come (prikhodyat) there.
A rush or high caused by a narcotic drug is also prikhod ("something that comes over a person")
An alien in a sci-fi movie is prishelets (someone who came)
The second coming of Christ - Vtoroye prishestviye Khrista
 
3:49 PM
Apr 18 '11 at 21:34, by Robusto
John McWhorter: "English really is easy(-ish) at first and hard later, while other languages like Russian are hard at first and then just as hard later! Show me one person who has said that learning Russian was no problem after they mastered the basics—after the basics you just keep wondering how anybody could speak the language without blacking out."
 
@Robusto I see there were some of the same people on the site almost 10 years ago.
 
Yes. We are the old guard, old timers, old farts, whatever you want to call us.
In two weeks I'll have been here 10 years now.
 
@Robusto Long time.
 
Not in the geologic sense.
 
@Robusto True, not in the geological sense.
 
4:23 PM
@Robusto Oh, my, you're old.
 
@Cerberus You've been here since the beginning as well.
 
I will only have been here ten years in six weeks.
 
So you're just a punk.
 
2000 Nokia- Connecting People
2020 Coronavirus- Disconnecting people
 
So I'm thrice as young now.
 
4:24 PM
@Robusto I like McWhorter, his audiobooks are captivating ))
 
@Cerberus I think you have an insufficient grasp of the mathematics involved.
 
I'm a measly 9 years, 10 months.
 
@MattE.Эллен Hush, dear, the grownups are talking.
 
@CowperKettle So are his regular books. But he is definitely a terrific lecturer. I highly recommend his The Story of Human Language, one of the Great Courses series on Audible.
 
5:27 PM
today I made some dramatic dreams.
I dreamt of having a course in classroom.
this has not been realized because of Covid-19 pandemic.
and dreamt of waking up finding myself in my room in original home,
wondering why I am still there
 
@Robusto How dare you!!
 
6:27 PM
Vladimir Putin's grandfather, Spiridon Putin, in 1910
He was a cook in restaurants, and then was hired to work for Vladimir Lenin's family
He also worked as a cook for Nikita Khrushchev
 
Hmm higher class than expected.
Lower middle-middle class?
Perhaps the most important number.
Meanwhile, the lower house have voted categorically against curfews.
 
7:09 PM
@CowperKettle nice...thanks
@CowperKettle Are those all the rules? Now I can speak Russian!
 
7:34 PM
@Mitch Those are all some of the rules for that verb. You're not done yet by any stretch of the imagination.
 
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