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22:45
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Q: Population increase on a Colonized Mars

Theocles of SaturnIn my world, a second space race pushes humanity farther than it has ever gone before. Humanity has carved up to moon between superpowers (the U.S. and China) and second rate space powers (E.U., Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, etc.) with a combined population of 2.5 million, and has establis...

I'd just like to point out that I definitely, for certain didn't make an entire world just to solve a math problem on my homework.
@sphennings It's called a joke, jeez.
I do not think that your Earth scenario would work. A solar flare would trigger EMP, true. However, military and government equipment is hardened against it, so if you still have 40% of power grid working and militaries functioning Earth should not be facing social breakdown and anarchy. Military research facilities will stay functioning as well. So, considering that they discovered immortality, they should be able to take control of the fungal epidemic. Once a fungicide is developed disinfection of cities and buildings will be a matter of short time.
@Olga It would. A third of the developed worlds population is liable to starve to death within the first month , military or no military. Mass starvation is how you get mobs and riots. Also , who will feed the military? Who will pay the military after the economy collapses? How will they stop secondary epidemic? How will they function properly without satilites, helicopters, vehicles, ships? How can they stop a black death level epidemic while dealing with all that? Fungicidal resistance can evolve , and the ability to lengthen telomeres doesn't directly correlate with epidemiology.
Historically, societal collapses are very rare. In times of need, people tend to band together and help each other. Strength is in numbers and humans know it really well. Looting and rioting are quite rare. Most of the looting is done to get survival supplies. However, police brutality and lack of faith in a state increase rioting and looting for personal profit. Still, the majority of the population stays concerned with helping each other to survive.
Your military equipment will stay intact (it is protected from EMP). Your police should be functioning, too (same reason). You have power grid operating at 40% capacity. It will take time, but you can restore communications and transportation in a reasonable time (developed countries). Military, National Guard, and police will be deployed to maintain order and to rebuild supply chains. The history of the WWII shows that people will join the military even if they know that they are going to die because it is the only way to protect their loved ones. You will have deserters, but most stay.
The level of genetic science required to successfully lengthen telomeres in humans is very high. A civilisation that can do that can study and understand a much simpler organism. Perhaps we are talking bioterrorism. But then you have to explain how terrorists managed to create and deliver deadly fungi to many locations while transportation and communications do not function properly. Makes for an interesting story...
@Olga You misunderstand, 40% of the World's power grids are out, ie most of the countries on the sunlit side of earth have no power. Assuming this is winter may to august, almost none of the countries in the northern hemisphere have power at all. It is the European countries, the U.S. that have zero power, nation's like Mexico, Brazil, Arabia, and India have some power, and nation's like South Africa and Argentina are mostly unaffected.
@Olga And Excerpt from The Week " Peter Pry, executive director of the federal EMP Task Force on National and Homeland Security, told Congress this year that a major EMP could cause widespread "starvation, disease, and societal collapse" that could lead to the deaths of tens of millions of people. "
22:45
Even better. You have unaffected countries that can organise a relief operation... at a cost. That would be really exciting to read. Also, China is apparently unaffected. Today they are one of the world leaders in genetical research.
@Olga You are overly optimistic. See, if the most developed countries in the world have power wiped out, what do you think will happen to the world economy?
@Olga if the world economy collapses overnight due to emp storm, everyone on Earth is screwed, this would be an economic collapse so hard it would make the Great depression look like a minor recession
WWII caused MASSIVE disruption of the world economy. The USSR had to rebuild its industrial complex almost entirely while fighting Germany. Most of the European countries laid in ruins. The UK and the USA had immense labour shortages. Even though there was no war on the American territory, things had to be rationed.
Millions of Soviets died. There was a huge shortage of men for generation after the WWII. Yet, somehow the world did not collapse.
Even the USSR did not collapse :)
You operate based on traditional societal collapse lore. But it is an urban legend. The research shows that Hobbes' 'every man for himself' does not work. You can check historical records for wars, tsunami, earthquakes, flooding. It is just not happening.
@Olga let us not forget that the ussr was communist, it could literally just pull labor out of it's behind. In this senario , all the big players are out, the world is as interdependant as ever ( p.s. I'm a slow typer)
@Olga have you ever heard of the bronze age collapse? Highly interdependant states annihilated without a trace due to system collapse. No system has EVER become as extensive, depended on, or wide spread as our global socio-economic system, never ever
The USSR worked 3 shifts a day with workers (children, women, and elders) sleeping next to their workplaces. Half of the country was on amphetamines. It was not as easy as you think. Of course, there was a lot of propaganda, lots of abuse. But when a country starts shipping women and children to the front lines it means they are not doing great.
@Olga but in these days, their is democracy and human rights preventing people from doing that
22:59
It was regional, not global
The Bronze Age collapse
@Olga I know, it wasn't global because they where in their own little interdependence bubble
I get what you are talking about. Things will be hard. But if you think about it, most of the production is in your unaffected or barely affected countries. So, you have a collapse of a financial sector. I agree with that. However, your crops are intact and it is winter, so they are harvested. You just need to distribute them.
With the help from your overseas and domestic military and international relief, you should be able to decrease deaths from starvation and rebuild infrastructure. Think of Europe after the WWII.
Of course, Europe, Canada, USA will lose their positions as world dominant powers. But it does not mean that the entire world is going to fall into chaos and revert to gunpowder technologies.
But can the governments react that quickly? see my earlier quote. Also what international help? Most of the world's international help comes from the affected. The unaffected are poorer countries
23:05
Don't forget that China is a communist country. They can pull it off the same way the USSR did.
Governments have contingency plans. And while they can be slow, they are still quite effective when it comes to natural disasters. Japan is an exception due to cultural peculiarities.
@Olga China is communist by name only these days, China is the world's largest market with some of the largest buinesses in the world
Um, a solar storm is not your average natural disaster.
Ideologically they are communist. The party still has a lot of power. But if you want China out of the game, you can tweak its history in the next 20-30 years. You will need 20-30 years more anyway to go Mars
True enough, all your most recent point, but that why I added the fungal plague
Do not get me wrong, I love your idea. I just want it to be more realistic than the Walking Dead.
23:11
With the plague, there is a matter of spread and genetic advancement. You have to be able to manipulate DNA really well in order to lengthen telomeres. And considering your timeframe, your scientists must be able to change all cells in a human body
Because you do not have time to raise an immortal generation from a Petri dish.
But, if you can do that, your scientists have a very good grasp on how genes work. Thus they can decode your fungi in a matter of days. It might take several months to develop an effective solution but it will be there.
Moreover, I just saw a very interesting TED talk about machine deep learning that allows developing vaccines and meds much cheaper and faster than using current methods. If I am not mistaken they either got a grant from the Big Pharma or they are going through FDA approval right now.
Considering this, your fungi must be something rather fast acting and deadly. But in this case, it cannot spread far and between naturally. Because the world travel is limited (we are still rebuilding) and because fast and deadly infection kills its hosts way too fast.
Therefore, it has to be a bioterrorism. The terrorists should somehow deliver spores to many locations over the world almost simultaneously.
It is a truly apocalyptic and fascinating scenario. Mix it with Mars and you have enough for a series of books/films/games/whatever.
You make an excellent point about the impracticality of the plague. I'll change it
Also, you will have lots of dead bodies. Do not say that they breed disease. They do not unless they very infected with very specific pathogens.
But they smell bad :)
Noted. I'll probably have to change it to a chixalub impactor even sorta thing. Like first a disease, then comet/asteroid, then volcanic eruptions, with the final addition of a solar flare
23:32
too many disasters
you should check the solar storm of the 19th century. It was so big that the auroras could've been seen near the equator. Some people thought it was day already. Right now Earth's magnetosphere is weakening at the rate of 5% per decade.
@Olga I'm stumped
you can probably mix solar flare with huge CME and weakened magnetic field
if your storm can last for 24 hours then you have a total failure of the power grid
the military and governments will still have their equipment working
but there is one thing that we do not really have a contingency for — massive failures of power plants around the world.
What is a CAME?
CME I mean
so, without electricity and emergency generators (even if they work after EMP, they will run out of gas soon) nuclear plants will not be able to cool the reactors
after a rather short time those reactors will start to melt
23:40
and you will get a nuclear catastrophe of a global magnitude that primarily affects developed countries
so, you will have the same result as before but in a more truthful manner
at least I think so... you need to double check it. But BBC convinced me that I do not want to survive an apocalypse because of the nuclear plants :)
This helps a lot, thanks for the debate :)
this is the solar storm I mentioned earlier
No problem, I like talking about an apocalypse and how not to survive it
my pleasure

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