You Are Here - 2021-07-13

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JonathanReez

00:00

Let me put it this way:
- If you believe that avoiding COVID deaths is the #1 goal of the modern state, then through great suffering for many years, 99% of deaths can be indeed avoided
- If you believe that general welfare is the #1 goal (as measured in number of quality years lived by everyone in the country), then July 19th reopening sounds good

Since you support #1 and I support #2, we can never come to a consensus, but I agree that presuming #1 as the axiom, you are 100% right

also see slatestarcodex.com/2018/05/08/…

Cerberus

Nah, I don't think preventing deaths is the only thing that matters.

I do want a compromise.

But I think passenger aviation would have been a small sacrifice with a great effect.

It's just not necessary.

JonathanReez

let me rephrase. I believe that 1 day of lockdown (where lockdown = even the smallest things like "no festivals" or "no free travel") requires around 1000 avoided deaths as a justification. You believe it requires only 100 deaths, correct?

Cerberus

Depends on how many people are affected by this lockdown!

And on how close the casualties are to the people under lockdown, both emotionally and locationally.

You cannot make people endure even a mild lockdown to save only people far away: that is not realistic.

And you cannot make 7 billion people lock down to save 1000.

JonathanReez

I agree that location matters. Age of victims matters (kid deaths vs. 100 year old deaths). State of victims matters (healthy athletes vs sick retirement home residents).

But somewhere at the end of that formula you assign a value of X to the part of the formula which asks for acceptable cost/benefits and I assign a value of 10X

Cerberus

But forbidding 17 million people from attending large parties, to save thousands who could be disabled, if the extra lockdown is only a month or two?

JonathanReez

00:05

and someone like Bolsonaro would assign a value of 100X (so they said reopen at 100% pre-vaccines)

Cerberus

@JonathanReez Perhaps so.

@JonathanReez Yes, he would, if he were even able to consider the situation so rationally...

15 hours later…

Rory Alsop

15:33

@Cerberus so far about 11 days, but some symptoms are still worsening. Massively reduced lung function and SPO2, joint pain, headaches, coughing, sore throat, sensitivity to light, exhaustion even from walking downstairs...

1 hour later…

Cerberus

16:37

@RoryAlsop And still worsening, that sounds very bad.

Which vaccine did you get? How long ago was your second shot?

I hope you get better soon!

Rory Alsop

@Cerberus Pfizer. 2nd was early June. So these symptoms are definitely Covid-lite. Dread to think how bad this would be without that mitigation

@Cerberus thank you

Cerberus

@RoryAlsop I'm really surprised how bad it is!

And none of you is old, I believe?

Rory Alsop

@Cerberus The worst bit - I'm in my 4th week at my new job, so really don't want to take any time off. So it's a slog...

@Cerberus well... I'm ancient, according to security.meta.stackexchange.com/a/1310/485

Cerberus

@RoryAlsop You're working through all this??

Rory Alsop

@Cerberus Remotely, thankfully

Cerberus

16:45

Hey you have a different icon when you're small!

Rory Alsop

but while my employer definitely wouldn't hold it agianst me, I can't miss my first month at new job

Cerberus

Such bad luck.

Rory Alsop

@Cerberus heh - yes. It's an amusing glitch I don't want to get fixed

Cerberus

@RoryAlsop So you're in your fifties?

@RoryAlsop How did you do it?

Rory Alsop

@Cerberus Turned 50 last month

Cerberus

16:46

Quite young still!

Rory Alsop

@Cerberus It's to do with how the site handles transparency - hang on, I'll find the meta post on it

Cerberus

I suspect it must be something to do with weirdly shaped images or transparency.

Rory Alsop

Q: Profile picture cannot have transparent background

I never liked that SO/SE relied on the external gravatar service, so I was glad to read that it doesn't any more. However, it turns out that one cannot use as profile picture a PNG file with transparent background (something that is supported by gravatar): Above is a screen capture of my profi...

somthing in there

Cerberus

So you constructed your image specially to profit from this glitch?

1 hour later…

Rory Alsop

18:08

@Cerberus hahaha - no, it was a complete accident. That I was then amused by

Cerberus

18:45

@RoryAlsop Wow, impressive.

4 hours later…

JonathanReez

23:15

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-to-keep-covid-19-border-restrictions-for-another-year-11624361777

sad that my trip to China is put off by another year...

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