@Xnero Fixed!

85% partially immunised is nice.

How many percentage points of those are from vaccinations?

Upper sixties? Or seventy-plus already?

85% already!

@Xnero ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations Is this site wildly incorrect?

Oh, I misread: you said "of adults".

That makes more sense.

Children are now a big vector, though.

If I may describe them as such...

Oh, really?

They are already vaccinating all children ages 12–17 in Holland.

We shall see.

Perhaps so!

What's the proportion of those being infected?

I think it's low, but substantial.

And they will then have a (reduced) chance of infecting others.

It’s kind of dumb that they’re not allowing kids to get vaccinated yet. Multiple trials have already shown the vaccine isn’t particularly harmful to them. Let the parents decide if they want to do it or not.

But in any case it’s not a barrier for reopening

I read an interview with some random children at a school in Amsterdam.

Most children wanted to be vaccinated.

One (17) mentioned that his classmate had lost his sense of smell.

And it had not come back even after six months or I don't remember the period.

Now I figure, if he has lost his sense of smell, can that really be the only serious damage the virus did to him?

No undiagnosed long damage? Etc.?

If anything this pandemic made me trust the government even less. Even scientists are no longer trustworthy unless speaking on apolitical subjects or in private. It’s sad that people can’t just do the right thing instead of politicizing everything.

Why don't you trust scientists or the government?

Interestingly, in Holland, trust in the government and science has risen because of the epidemic.

Even though everyone is always criticising the government's handling of it all the time.

@Cerberus because it’s hard to say if they’re doing what’s really best or what’s best for their electability or career path

Doesn't that apply to all professions, all throughout history?

It does but I guess I was more naive before and thought that at least scientists would have the honor/courage to say things as they are instead of what’s convenient. I was wrong.

@JonathanReez In the UK scientists have been very much in the trustworthy space. Fact checking shows this. Unfortunately the government and media have been pushing a populist "never trust education" right wing view for a while, which has massively impacted us during this pandemic.

The problem is the politicians wanting to reopen the country to gain votes, despite all the scientific evidence showing that this is a fatally stupid idea.

So many hospitals are now full or unable to staff effectively as so many are sick or isolating

And remember, even healthy, fully vaccinated folks can still get Covid badly. Me and my entire family, for example - and despite being vaccinated, the symptoms are hellish

Problem is that if vaccines are not good enough to end the lockdown, nothing will ever be good enough as the virus is now endemic, including a pretty wide spread in wildlife. So either we can reopen right now or we'll be self-isolating anyway

@RoryAlsop agreed, which is why I'm personally going to be wearing an N95 mask indoors if the case count in my county goes up to the winter peak again. We can still wear face shields + masks if we don't feel comfortable just yet (or not comfortable in the future)

but I'm perfectly fine with nightclubs hosting 1000+ ragers without a mask all while I'm wearing N95 masks. We just have to move on.

@RoryAlsop Oh, that's terrible.

How long did the symptoms last? What were the worst ones?

@JonathanReez Can't we just wait a couple more weeks, until we have reached herd immunity (ca. 90% antibodies)?

@Cerberus its always a "couple more weeks" though

I've heard it 100 times since March 2020

if someone feels unsafe, let them wear an N95 mask. High quality 3M masks are super easy to get right now. You can even get a mask with a valve for easy breathing (since if masks are not mandatory, valved masks are okay too)

I have a box of them ready at home, waiting for cases per capita to go above 30/100k in my county (Seattle)

I do not want to get COVID even though I'm fully vaccinated. I also do not want to live in permanent lockdowns. 2020 was a horrible anti-utopia and I do not want to go back.

@JonathanReez It doesn't have to be a strict lockdown: just close down clubs, parties, festivals.

if a 1000-person music festival can't run without masks, I still call that a lockdown. Anything harsher than masking requirements in hospitals/nursing homes is a form of lockdown

@JonathanReez Okay, but it is a very mild affair, one that hardly interferes with normal life except some entertainment.

Its mild but it still has consequences. As an example, here in Seattle it was legal not to wear a mask if you're vaccinated from mid-May but a lot of businesses (including my gym) waited until June 30th (day of "full" reopening in Washington) to remove masking and social distancing rules. Many people care about official "full reopening" dates and would not go back to normal unless the government explicitly allows them to

if you keep saying "we can't relax just yet" a ton of activities will be put on hold for liability/fear of blame reasons. If you explicitly allow 10k+ maskless music festivals, its a signal for people to do whatever they please

now... "whatever they please" could still mean masking in some places but at least it would be 100% voluntary

and some people will still wear N95 masks, only shop online, not meet their friends, etc. Its a free world out there and I don't expect everyone to just go to music festivals all of a sudden (I didn't like them even pre-COVID)

@JonathanReez Hmm I'm not sure we're seeing that here.

Masking has been abolished except in public transportation, and when sitting inside while unable to keep 1.5 m distances from others, which is basically only theatres and such.

And people have shed their masks in most other places. And won't put them back on without being required to do so.

And no businesses require them.

A few people still wear them in supermarkets, but not many.

Oh, and I wore one at the doctor's.

But I really think 'everything is allowed except clubs, cafés after midnight, festivals, large parties, and not wearing masks in public transportation' can work well enough. It is actually what we had last year from early summer until late autumn.

@Cerberus good to hear businesses don't require them. But can you, say, book tables for a group of 30 people for an after-work hangout? (real thing I did last week in Seattle)

@JonathanReez I think so.

Not 100% sure.

I think officially you'd need to be able to keep 1.5 metres even from your own people, but, in practice, restaurants will probably allow it. Then again, few restaurants are large enough to receive that many people at once.

And you cannot reserve tables in cafés anyway.

Maybe you could reserve a room.

But, honestly, I can't imagine why you would want to be together with 30 people.

@Cerberus that's the thing. someone doesn't want to be with 30 people and its okay! But me and my team mates do want it and if it was banned we'd be in trouble

"some more time" = "just two more weeks"...

@JonathanReez You want it, but is it really such a huge sacrifice to wait?

What if we accept the deaths and disabilities resulting from abolishing all rules, but then we are breeding a new, far more dangerous variant?

When we're so close to herd immunity?

@Cerberus I've waited from March 12 2020 (date we started WFH and Seattle locked down pretty much) to June 30 2021, so 475 days :-)

and the US is at a lower vaccination rate than the UK

obviously as a non-UK resident I'm not concerned with what the UK government does, nor do I have any say in it, just pointing out that I'm happy for British residents that Boris is their leader

@JonathanReez How long do you think you'd have to wait for herd immunity?

Why happy with Johnson?

@Cerberus I suspect the answer is that its never coming, based on the experience in Israel. The UK had 1k deaths/day at the peak and will probably have around 200-300 deaths/day during the flu season, every year for the next few decades, until either super-vaccines are invented with a 100% success rate or vaccines w/booster shots become mandatory for all without exception

the flu killed around 25k/year in the UK or 100k/year in the US, every year for hundreds if not thousands of years

IFR of COVID without a vaccine = 0.75%. IFR of flu = 0.1%. IFR of COVID with vaccine = roughly 0.05%

IFR?

I'm not good with abbreviations.

Infection Fatality Rate

Ah.

In the longer term, I think the problem with the Corona virus is that mutations have proven more dangerous compared with influenza?

We have seen several much more infectious mutations even within a single year.

But, once everyone has been either infected or vaccinated, that will no doubt slow down.

the flu mutates all the time too, see the swine flu/avian flu scares. COVID hasn't had any mutations so far that are good enough to increase IFR of vaccinated individuals

Yes, but that is rare.

even if the UK and the whole developed world goes on a 100% lockdown tomorrow, there are still billions of people in developing countries where COVID could mutate and which cannot possibly lockdown hard for too long without devastating their citizens lives. Delta is suspected to originate in India for example

Yes.

so you'd have to keep a lockdown (plus worthless border closures) for many more years, waiting for the virus to mutate itself to a final stable form (which may or may not ever happen)

But it is in one's own interest not to have such a variant appear close to home.

the whole world is one/two flights away. Any variant that exists out there will spread to your country within 3 months, as proven by Delta.

unless you shutdown aviation entirely

only way to win is not to play the game, as the saying goes. Meaning you vaccinate, then open up and let the virus do its thing

Once we have reached ca. 85–90% of the local population either vaccinated or having been infected, I think that could be a good time to relax all rules. Until that time, perhaps some very mild rules can still be kept in place. For us, that will be measured in weeks; if you think not enough people in America or your state will be vaccinated or infected soon, then I can understand why you don't feel even a mild lockdown is worth it for your area.

how many weeks left until 90% goal is reached?

@JonathanReez Three months is a long time.

for adults

@Cerberus yes, if you have vaccines coming up and need a bit more time. If you have plenty of vaccines already (as the UK and the US do), there's not much more left to improve within those 3 months. So they're very valuable for, say, South Africa as they're waiting for Pfizer shipments, but not to South Dakota.

@JonathanReez I'm not sure. And I don't mean just adults, but the entire population. I think blood banks here already report something close to 75% of people have antibodies (so let's say 60% from being vaccinated at least once + two weeks for antibodies to grow, and 15% antibodies from earlier infection), and teenagers are now being vaccinated. So I think maybe late August?

@JonathanReez Right, if the speed of vaccination is low, and there is nothing that can be done about it, and you're not close to herd immunity, then the wait might be too hard.

@JonathanReez I am all in favour of completely shutting down passenger aviation during a pandemic.

@Cerberus sure, hopefully that 90% goal is reached after all. If 90% is indeed enough to stop COVID forever in spite border leaks, then great news for all!

We should have done that in January. In fact, I advocated for it.

@JonathanReez They think so.

We shall see.

@Cerberus in the case of UK you'd also need to shutdown Calais/Eurotunnel goods shipments, as currently truck drivers go into the UK to haul their goods vs. Australia where they use shipping containers and sailors don't need to leave their ships

and of course the Irish border, unless the Irish commit to shutting down aviation too

which I've heard is not very popular in that region...

(the border closing part)

@JonathanReez Truck drivers and aeroplane personnel can be quarantined.

not if you massively disrupt the supply chain. Right now a lot of goods rely on a truck driver from, say, Germany hauling stuff directly to, say, Manchester

you can make a system where they drop off their goods and leave but now you need a bunch of extra domestic trucks/truck drivers

@JonathanReez If the EU forbids all passenger aviation, and Ireland wants to opt out, it can infect its own people! But the continent will reap the benefits.

@JonathanReez I'm sure it can be done.

You could even make an exception for Britain if it agrees not to let anyone fly in from countries outside the EU.

Isolate the continent from other continents.

it can be but would take many years. Supply chains are difficult to replace

EU has the same problem re its borders with Russia/Ukraine/Turkey. Tons of goods on trucks. You can see a lot of them while crossing the borders

Then Britain can either agree to follow the EU plan (no intercontinental aviation and no passenger aviation) or it can accept being cut off from those supply chains. Their problem.

best you can do is maybe isolate continental Eurasia from Africa, as no trucks cross Israel

@JonathanReez Those are still a ton better than allowing aviation.

It doesn't have to be 100%.

99.999% would still help a great deal.

@Cerberus this will result in hunger, as a lot of food is shipped by truck every day. Ok maybe you'll be able to supply bread and milk but a ton of foods will be disrupted

@Cerberus Australia said so too and now they're locking down Sydney yet again. They don't even have any truck drivers to begin with, just hotel quarantines

Hunger where?

@JonathanReez It worked while they did it.

But they weren't strict enough.

not hunger per se (I imagine bread will still be available) but a lot of the foods you eat in the UK are sourced from the continent entirely or partially

Then Britain will have to choose between going along with the plan or accept shortages in certain foods.

and even the wheat fields might require parts for tractors shipped from Germany for example

I'm sure we can send emergency ships to Britain if necessary.

@Cerberus I'm certainly glad this was never an option in America :-)

but sure, if COVID is that important, then yes, its an option

You're already isolated enough that stopping all intercontinental aviation would have helped you a great deal!

Allow only goods to be shipped by plane, no passengers.

And put everyone in quarantine who doesn't fly back without leaving the aeroport.

But, no, we all allowed large numbers of passengers flying around the world during the entire pandemic.

Without proper quarantining, except during some periods, in some places.

Notably East Asia and Australia / New Zealand.