As an historian, however, I cannot but ask this singleton some critical questions.
> the term refers to a world order in which there is a single decision-making agency at the highest level.[1] Among its powers would be (1) the ability to prevent any threats (internal or external) to its own existence and supremacy, and (2) the ability to exert effective control over major features of its domain (including taxation and territorial allocation).
How does one determine whether something is a "single agency"? What counts as an "agency"?
Is the Chinese government such a "single agency" with respect to China?
I presume the UN does not count as being able to (1) prevent any existential threats. Does the Chinese central government? I presume the provincial governments do not count as part of the "agency", because they're not at the highest level.
I presume it satisfies (2) taxation and territory.
Does it matter that different people "lead" the agency at different times, that there are different factions?
> prevent any threats (internal or external) to its own existence and supremacy
This would seem to suggest an agency that was perpetually stable; and yet the article also mentions unstable singletons. Or how are we to interpret "any" threats?
Since almost every state in history has collapsed sooner or later, and many of them collapsed mainly owing to internal issues, how can there be any hope (or fear) that a future empire will last forever? Does the global (let's assume a single planet) scale of a singleton make it so utterly and entirely different from all past empires?
If so, why?
Why should we expect any future empire to satisfy condition 1, i.e. being able to prevent any existential threats?
The only likely kind of singleton seems to me either a super computer, or a super organism or collection of such organisms, if the definition of a singleton is about controlling all humans.
And the easiest way for such an entity to ensure its own survival might be to eradicate or engineer-away humanity...
It's interesting that it doesn't necessarily have to be a government per se -- the key bit seems to be effectively global coordination of world society (goal-formation, decision-making)...
So Bostrom suggests, that the conditions for the genesis of a singleton might involve, for instance, a "self-enforcing moral code" rather than a 'localized entity' (AI or convivium) which makes decisions for all of society.
--It could even be basically democratic; or perhaps with heterogeneous economic, social and political ecosystems underlying it (Bostrom suggests such diversity might be a part of ensuring adaptation.)
I haven't yet read the entirety of the article, I've just barely skimmed it, but it occurs to me that just from the basic definition given, we will never be able to form one. An "external threat" could be anything from an asteroid wiping out the central unit of the singleton to something as simple as a virulent strain of a virus. We as humans have shown an amazing lack of an ability to control internal threats as well.
@JosephWeissman it implies a mastery over (literally) everything, the ability to control all internal and external forces in an almost precognitive manner (which lends itself to a predeterministic viewpoint, which has been refuted quite often by almost every worldview)
> In set theory, a singleton is a set with only one member, but as I introduced the notion, the term refers to a world order in which there is a single decision-making agency at the highest level.[1] Among its powers would be (1) the ability to prevent any threats (internal or external) to its own existence and supremacy, and (2) the ability to exert effective control over major features of its domain (including taxation and territorial allocation).
> Many singletons could co-exist in the universe if they were dispersed at sufficient distances to be out of causal contact with one another. But a terrestrial world government would not count as a singleton if there were independent space colonies or alien civilizations within reach of Earth.
--I guess one thought would be that, on my reading, "ability to prevent threats to existence/supremacy" doesn't necessarily imply "necessarily functionally immortal" or something
In passing: I'm also not sure entirely how constructive it is to talk about refuted viewpoints when it comes to the (deep) future... :)
the "ability to prevent any threats" seems to be an all encompassing term that would mean that a potential threat would not only be dealt with, but be more or less prevented from existing
the fact that a threat could potentially materialize, even if thwarted, would immediately demolish the complete supremacy of the agency
and I have a meeting in 5
I'll come back and lurk silently for a few days :)
> One could also imagine a singleton arising from the universal spread of a single self-enforcing moral code. The code might specify that agents should give preferential treatment to other agents that follow the code.
> If such a code becomes accepted by a sufficient number of agents, and if monitoring and enforcing compliance is sufficiently feasible, it might in the self-interest of agents who have not yet adopted the code to do so. This could lead to the code’s universal adoption. If the code is sufficiently prescriptive to result in effectively coordinated goal-oriented behavior at the level of world society, it would constitute a singleton.
because in order to do so requires all participants to also adhere to the same moral code, as well as the end goal of the agency enforcing it. That's why we see even in the US different laws about different things in different places.
all things considered, you could count "humanity" as that singleton. As a whole, our existence is rarely threatened, and we deal with the threats that do arise without completely eradicating humanity... but internally everybody is struggling for the supremacy of their own ideals.
so in some ways you could say "we're already there"... but it's not quite the utopia Mr. Bostrom envisioned
Well, it's an extrapolation or generalization over large-scale social and political institutions. We're definitely not quite there yet (globally coordinated, goal-directed behavior); there are still a number of 'top-level' independent organizations, etc.
> "Historically, we have seen an overarching trend towards the emergence of higher levels of social organization, from hunter-gatherer bands, to chiefdoms, city-states, nation states, and now multinational organizations, regional alliances, various international governance structures, and other aspects of globalization.[6] Extrapolation of this trend points to the creation of a singleton."
Sure, but again -- doesn't necessarily need to be on the model of a world government... A global governing institution could be a singleton, but possibly could not be one; and there are singletons that might not look/act anything like a world gov't, etc.
So, personally, I do not believe we will ever have any form of "one-world government" or "utopia"... there are three worldviews which would first have to be rectified -- Islam, Judeo-Christianity, and Atheism. What is utopia or the rising to power of one is simply oppression of the other 2.
I don't think globalisation as we know it is in any way comparable to things like a super AI to conquer us all, or a virus, or, again, a convergence en strengthening of moral codes.
@NathanWheeler Why are religions more of a problem than other things? We already have plenty of states containing different religions that function fairly well?
I don't even know what the religions are of most politicians here.
It's not extremely important, in a modern society, or at least it doesn't have to be—of course it is very important with respect to some people.
@Cerberus because the internal belief a person holds, and the deity to which they pledge allegiance, ultimately determines their goals and moral and ethical boundaries. And belief, no matter how well or incorrectly placed is an impossible thing to overcome in people.
Then how come the norms of people in my country are rather well aligned between Christians and atheists, but not between our Christians and, say, those in Nigeria, or the Westborough Church in America?
Christians and atheists here agree on enough rules for them to live together peacefully, as they do in most places.
And why does this not apply to all kinds of minorities equally?
Why is a religious "group" (even though different sects of Christianity may hate each other's guts) different from a socially oriented group, or a professionally oriented group, or an age group, or a regional group, or a group marked by certain exterior properties, like skin colour, etc. etc.?
@Cerberus If my town has 5 representative for 100 people, and less than 10 people of a minority exist in that 100, representation will not include that minority
Well, you are suggesting that my representative has to share properties with me. Does my representative in parliament have to also be an atheist, around 1m90 tall, blue-eyed, speaking with the same accent, preferring the company of certain people, living in my neighbourhood, etc.?
@NathanWheeler Why not?
I don't see why religion would be fundamentally different from other properties than individual citizens may possess.
for perpetuation (and continued supremacy) of the species, both males and females are required. For perpetuation and supremacy of one worldview, those that oppose it must be silenced.
there will never be one worldview. When one group grows to a sufficient majority, the other groups lack representation and become oppressed... to assume that it wouldn't happen would be to assume that we formed a democracy in which none of the citizens had their own motives at heart. That condition doesn't exist.
@NathanWheeler Sure. But how does this not apply to any kind of opinion on what society and nature are or should be? Why would religion be any different from any other views?
So, personally, I do not believe we will ever have any form of "one-world government" or "utopia"... there are three worldviews which would first have to be rectified -- Islam, Judeo-Christianity, and Atheism. What is utopia or the rising to power of one is simply oppression of the other 2.
I was just wondering why you treated religions as an exception. But perhaps we should define this "one-world government first". I imagined something like a modern nation-state, but encompassing the entire world?
we're volatile, and capable of far more destruction than we even realize...
even when we aren't killing each other, we're self-serving, egotistical, and completely dismissive of the needs and ideas of others who disagree with us
--probably not entirely constructive, but now i'm just thinking about part-whole problems, mereology and so forth
---every part of a geodesic dome is a triangle, but the dome itself isn't triangular, right?
a meta-stability might be possible which takes into account cyclical patterns of destructiveness
(arguably, capitalism, religion, the state, etc., are all manifestations of this.)
--i think that's the point about extrapolation bostrom makes, right? singleton is a conceptual extension/generalization of already-existing and effective goal-coordination technologies
kind of internal 'plateau' of organization or development, where a coordinating entity no longer 'defers' to external or internal exigencies...
as an analogy, it seems suggestive; i.e., that organic systems are extremely good at extracting 'signal' (organizational energetics) from noisy [or entropic] environments
destruction is the 'middle' of organization, a necessary part of transformation; how we could we create anything without destruction...?
just in passing -- it strikes me that nietzsche talks about burning ourselves in our own flame -- saying something along the lines of: "how could you rise again if you had not first become ashes?"
for some reason, i'm tempted to suggest Flusser as something of a continental 'inversion' of Bostrom in certain ways
Vilém Flusser (May 12, 1920 – November 27, 1991) was a Czech-born philosopher, writer and journalist. He lived for a long period in São Paulo (where he became a Brazilian citizen) and later in France, and his works are written in several different languages.
His early work was marked by discussion of the thought of Martin Heidegger, and by the influence of existentialism and phenomenology. Phenomenology would play a major role in the transition to the later phase of his work, in which he turned his attention to the philosophy of communication and of artistic production. He contribut...
there's a recently published text post-history that's incredibly interesting and maybe begins to unpack some of these concerns about our future...
...anyway; sorry if i'm steamrolling! thanks for stopping by and chatting with us :)
so when you think about biology vs. humanity, humanity is generally destructive to biology... how many species are extinct thanks to humanity. Their ashes are permanent, not something they will "rise again" from. Humanity is unique in it's ability to accomplish complete and irreparable destruction.
serres writes about something like this in the natural contract
basically, that for most of humanity's existence, nature is this huge contingency; we're almost completely at its whim and mercy, maybe exploiting some of its violence slightly
but today it's different -- serres talks about how humanity is now suddenly co-equal with nature
either capable of destroying the other...
he talks about us being locked in a social combat or struggle with each other, while we ignore the wind and rain, the mud we're steadily sinking into...
one of his thoughts here is that we need a new 'natural' contract with the planet...
Background extinction rate, also known as ‘normal extinction rate’, refers to the standard rate of extinction in earth’s geological and biological history before humans became a primary contributor to extinctions. This is primarily the pre-human extinction rates during periods in between major extinction events.
Overview
Extinctions are a normal part of the evolutionary process, and the background extinction rate is a measurement of “how often” they naturally occur. Normal extinction rates are often used as a comparison to present day extinction rates, to illustrate the higher frequency...
I mean like we transplant frogs from somewhere to kill flies that we imported from somewhere else to spread bacteria from somewhere else that we're now importing..........
Of all the species that have gone extinct in the past, don't you think there must have been many whose extinction was hastened by some property of a different species?
@JosephWeissman This only shows that species go extinct (supposedly, although it makes no claims even to its own accuracy), not that another species was responsible.
It may be true that humanity has a greater influence on the environment than any other species, but it may also be false. If plants hadn't decided to produce oxygen, they wouldn't be much life.
@Cerberus plants don't really produce oxygen, they utilize the carbon from the CO2 which we exhale... so maybe if all these other lifeforms didn't exhale carbon dioxide, there wouldn't be many plants?
@NathanWheeler I don't think that's how it happened? At any rate, some organisms made the atmosphere habitable for us. So they had a tremendous effect on the environment, much greater than we have.
And ants are far more successful than humans as counted in biomass.
...um, well. There was an important paper published almost 30 years ago [Jack Sepkoski and David M. Raup, 1982] that describes five major extinction events and explores some of the causes.
An extinction event (also known as a mass extinction or biotic crisis) is a widespread and rapid decrease in the amount of life on earth. Such an event is identified by a sharp change in the diversity and abundance of macroscopic life. It occurs when the rate of extinction increases with respect to the rate of speciation. Because the majority of diversity and biomass on Earth is microbial, and thus difficult to measure, recorded extinction events affect the easily observed, biologically complex component of the biosphere rather than the total diversity and abundance of life.
Over 98% of d...
(Would not be the worst place to start, I suppose.)
--It references this, Alroy's "Dynamics of origination and extinction in the marine fossil record", which might be useful for getting our arms around what the available evidence indicate.
but that doesn't answer my question... anyone can write a paper exploring something as a possibility, but a statement was made with the precursor "in fact", which I hardly believe can begin to be truly substantiated by any fact.
__NOTOC__
Quentin Meillassoux (; born 1967) is a French philosopher. He teaches at the École Normale Supérieure, but he will be moving in Fall 2012 to a new position at the Université de Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne. He is the son of the anthropologist Claude Meillassoux.
Meillassoux is a former student of the philosophers Bernard Bourgeois and Alain Badiou, who has written that Meillassoux's first book Après la finitude (2006) introduces an entirely new option into modern philosophy, different from Kant's three alternatives of criticism, scepticism, and dogmatism. The book was translated i...
(Also might be worth a look; though decidedly more apparently literary/poetic than Brassier...)
> [T]he disenchantment of the world understood as a consequence of the process whereby the Enlightenment shattered the 'great chain of being' and defaced the 'book of the world' is a necessary consequence of the coruscating potency of reason, and hence an invigorating vector of intellectual discovery, rather than a calamitous diminishment
--That's Brassier, channelling Nietzsche :)
It's a point we've talked a little about, Cerbie -- the idea that the Enlightenment rationalism is a necessary consequence of certain of Christianity's own values, and in particular it's emphasis on truth (which when pushed to its limit undoes the whole chain of values...)
I don't know..."on faith in a transcendental scheme"? Is it that different from the other Abrahamic religions? And then why did it descend into the dark ages after Antiquity, only to reemerge almost a millennium later?
in contrast to other religions, Christianity points to a singular source by which man comes to terms with his humanity, and by which he reaches Heaven, and promotes a personal relationship with that deity. Other religions either focus on trying to find the truth through some action, but remain at the whim of some deity.
I don't think they are that different in that respect. Nor do I think the various Christian sects are that similar. Or the Muslim sects. Huge internal differences.
do you want to lump all of them into one bucket? Catholics, Mormons, Jehovah's Witness, Apostolic, Pentecostal, Calvinist, Armenian, etc... and are you including Islam as Abrahamic (they claim to be the seed of Abraham)?
It's about this logic of piercing-the-veil, that absolutely is a common mystical religious striving, but reaching something of an apex or inversion with scholastic (literary!) Christianity (like Augustine and so on, forerunners of the enlightenment values...)
Christianity is somewhat singular in this regard, for certain reasons that are definitely complicated (theological, economic, juridical, psychoanalytical, etc.)
A thoroughgoing deconstruction would have a lot to take into account here :)
Atheism focuses on humanism as truth, and each person is his own deity (by denying a deity, you turn to idolize humanity). If I choose to kill someone as an atheist, my truth is probably far different than the truth of my victim who believes that they should live...
I was thinking of earlier history anyway. When Buddhism, the Abrahamic religions, and Hinduism emerged in India and Europe and spread across Eurasia and North Africa, not a great deal happened in China.
Except that Buddhism came to China.
@JosephWeissman There are some parallels, but I really don't think it is comparable to the major world religions.
--Well, one thought is that the relation with the supernatural is always mediated, usually through some technology of inscription...
That the transcendental is caught up in regimes of signs, that it works through the lines of knowledge and power made possible through speech, writing.
@NathanWheeler Uhh I'm not sure what you mean. Isn't atheism basically about the denial of the supernatural, or God? Moral codes are outside the scope of atheism, I would say.
@JosephWeissman ...or at least through some earthly medium, sure.
@Cerberus Sure, atheism denies the supernatural. It makes the statement that there is no God. But as an effect, the moral code of atheism becomes "hive mind" where nobody is wrong or right, because there's not any central moral compass. My own moral compass sets my moral code as an internal stimuli.