Would like to ask a small question about binomial distribution. I am not getting the concept. Suppose we flip a coin 4 times. We would like to find the probability of getting exactly 2 heads in those 4 flips. If we think in terms of tree diagrams, then there will be many ways in which we can get 2 heads. I.e. HHTT, THTH, THHT, etc. So what we are doing is finding all the ways we can permutate HHTT right? So why do we use combinations for this?
@o.9 How are they different? The way that I was taught combinations was with the letters of the alphabet. So say you had ABCD. We could permutate this to find all the ways in which the characters ABCD could be arranged. However, this would only be 1 combination. So how does that relate to this?
if you want exactly two heads, you're counting heads. HHTT and HTTH are 'the same' for this purpose, not distinguishable.
you overcount if you use permutations.
it's helpful to write out all of the outcomes, or get a computer to do it. writing out all the permutations is helpful to do.
but when you want the ones with two H's, if you go around that chart and circle them, you'll see that many permutations contribute to that event. the number of them divided by the total is the probability. it might be helpful to think in these terms and relate it to the formulas later.
copper, angelyne is trailing in the polls. not even top 5.
Well, I certainly wouldn't be interested in counting such things in any way.
@robjohn: Interestingly, I gave up on Firefox on iOS, but discovered that the ChatJax on Safari on OS needs to be constantly refreshed (i.e., doesn't typeset stuff in the future); I've never noticed that before. So I'm using Firefox on my iMac.
@leslietownes I am not for the recall. I feel I should vote for someone in case the recall succeeds, but I can't even find a candidate that I find halfway acceptable as an alternate.
@TedShifrin I have no problem with iOS and Safari on my iPhone.
@leslie @robjohn I followed the Democratic Party advice and voted for no one in part 2. I get the rationale: Don't give anyone credibility going in to the next election. But ...
A friend of mine who is a retired political science prof explained the history of all these recall provisions ... mostly in western states.
Faulconer is the sanest and most qualified you'll find.
The way every other state does it, apparently, is to have the recall vote ONLY. If the recall wins, then one has a separate election for a replacement candidate. Much better, but more expensive.
Well, maybe that will fill my ballot. I'd rather a Dem, but if the recall goes through, the chances of one of the Democratic candidates winning are small.
The Democratic Party strategy backfires if not enough dems turn in ballots. Especially after the Afghanistan exit. One person doing phone-banking for the recall with me said she got berated by 4 people for the mess the Dems had made of it all. Hmm, remember Tromp's 9/11 meeting with Pompeo and the Taliban at Camp David? No?
@TedShifrin Yes. I just read about Faulconer on Wikipedia, and he seems the least objectionable of the Republicans, and now that I know he has political experience, I think I will put him on my ballot.
@TedShifrin I spent a couple of hours evaluating the sum in this question.
I got 35 decimal places once I decided to stop trying to get an exact value
hopefully sf politics are not indicative here. corrupt & ineffective.
still, i'm in a good mood. i had chai with my daughter at a local cafe (well, a flower shop really). if my kids & cohort are in any way representative i think there is hope.
atm everything looks to me like standard us politics since reagan, trump-era was unusual but with the last election results everything is looking like it's going to be just the usual
no worries democracy will be intact, whatever good that might do
i do sometimes wonder whether us hegemony depends on having an active war somewhere at all times
it makes sense from a state-building perspective, maybe?, but otherwise i don't see any reason why we won't see standard us international relation games like usual for the coming years
that's what's surprising to me, in europe and latin america right-wing activism has always been countered by social-democratic activism (and other, more left-ward bedfellows hehe), but it feels to me that the dems are way too deep in the center to openly support popular activism
but then again, it feels to me there's way less party centralization in the us than in other countries
i did hear about independent initiatives from dem representatives to support in some way or another the popular movements during trump-era
but it seems to me this is far from something like a party line
