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5:31 AM
morning
in anticipation of statewide curfew they issued us letters stating we work here and where we live so we can show them to controlling police while going to work in case we get stopped
stuff got real really fast
 
 
4 hours later…
9:44 AM
@Magisch yeah they are doing similar here - due to get a letter soon that we can show
 
 
3 hours later…
12:19 PM
hey @avazula hope you're keeping well and sane
 
Hey!
I'm well, sane is a bit more uncertain
 
@avazula :( guessing they're running you pretty ragged given your industry
 
Yeah, that's the hardest part. We have hundreds of devices to produce ASAP so that the gov may use it for patients with Covid 19. I put my mod activities on hold (even though I check in a bit every day) but I drop by sometimes "to stay sane" indeed :)
 
hopefully you get through it without too much stress
 
seconded.. fingers crossed for you
 
12:25 PM
@motosubatsu britain already has a general lockdown right?
we don't have one yet here
 
@Magisch yeah they don't really like calling it that but that's what it is
 
Thanks :) So far WFH is doing wonders to me so that's a good thing
 
johnson's plan seems to have backfired
 
@Magisch if by "plan" you mean "flapping around like a demented fraggle and hoping it all goes away" then yes
 
better then what america is doing
trump is targeting april 12th to revoke all restrictions and go back to normal in the US
(from the federal side, that is, states probably wont)
 
12:30 PM
@Magisch you could pin random actions to a dartboard and have a blindfolded drunk throw darts to make decisions and it would still be better than America's efforts
 
How's it going for you two?
 
tense and silent in the office, I can't WFH, and am on rotating shifts now so that's doing a number on my sleep schedule and routine so eh
 
@avazula not too bad - still in the office unfortunately but at least that's better than not having any money coming in
 
:/
Lots of courage to both of you
 
I can't lie I'm worried for my employer, if we have to close the office it's gonna be brutal
for now orders are barely holding to pre-corona numbers. Orders by automobile companies are way down, but from medical manufacturing are way up. A mixed bag in general.
 
12:37 PM
I think it's less courage.. more a powerful need to eat and keep a roof over my head. If I can't work that's me and my employee left without enough money coming in to do both
 
I got savings to last me quite a while and my dad already said if I lose my job he'd support me if necessary, so that's not a huge stress factor for me, but man I'm contact anxious for everyone else here
 
Yeah, same here... many of my friends are undergoing temp unemployment
 
@avazula yup.. it's really doing a number on a lot of people :(
 
yup :(
 
1:46 PM
@Neo Mr Anderson
 
Neo
Good morning.
I just hope this thing passes quickly...
 
Bee
2:04 PM
@Neo I doubt it will
 
Neo
( hoping )
I am hoping for End of April
 
@Neo I hate to sound like a doomsayer but.. no chance
@Neo can you cast your mod eye over this: workplace.stackexchange.com/questions/155417/…
 
Bee
2:26 PM
ahaha that is very ambitious
 
Neo
2:52 PM
Yep, to me that looks like subtle spam. Not enough to act on though.....
 
@Neo glad I'm not the only one who can see it
 
Neo
@motosubatsu I sure hope your wrong, otherwise Global Recession.....
 
Bee
@neo that's exactly what I'm expecting
 
Neo
@Bee I hope not....I am still optimistic about end of April.
 
@Neo honestly I'd like nothing better than to be wrong, I don't see any feasible way it could be done by the end of April. The only ways you could really end this that quickly would be a near-perfect suppression strategy executed on a global scale or just accepting that millions die
 
Neo
3:06 PM
@motosubatsu it may come to that....I don't believe human beings can self quarantine indefinitely.
this will help us in the US
short term anyway
 
@Neo no..there are limits to how functional a society you can have under the hefty curbs - which is why I think it will be a balancing act over the next 5-12 months of keeping society going while keeping deaths to a realistic minimum
 
Neo
3:45 PM
eeeek
I sure hope someone can impress us with useful treatment.
 
@Neo there's few things being looked at/trialed at the moment treatment wise
 
Kaz
@Neo It's already here. It probably won't show up in the official statistics for another 3-4 months, and it won't officially be a recession until sometime in October, but the effects are real and already happening.
 
Neo
I think I will just bury my head in the sand on this and keep all the cash I can. :=)
 
Kaz
It's quite plausible that 5% of American workers got laid off this week. That's already a recession, and it happened in 5 days. GDP is expected to decline by 5% in the next 3 months. That's 18 months of recession happening over the course of 12 weeks.
 
it's deciding between two evils
 
Kaz
3:57 PM
And that's before most small businesses have even gone bankrupt yet.
 
every bit of economic activity beyond the lockdown essentials the virus will punish with more dead people and a step closer to the health care system collapsing
 
Neo
I think, people cannot stay inside......so in the end I bet we all get it. I hope we find a cure / decent treatment but hope is not a strategy.
 
the problem with that is
a lot of people (20%+) need some kind of medical assistance to get through it without severe long term effects or dying
every bit of more social interaction allowed will hasten the spread. And when the hospitals can't handle it anymore, the death rate spikes hard, towards the 10% figure rather then the 1% or so without
everyone is trotting out italy as a negative example, but even there the majority of severe cases can still be treated, and they have a harsh nation wide lockdown
a true health care system collapse is significantly uglier then what is italy right now
 
Neo
Italy has an aging population too...
 
the US has a chronically ill, largely overweight population
 
Kaz
4:02 PM
Personal opinion (which I don't have time to debate in depth so take it for what it is):

Doing nothing comes with unacceptable costs (too many dead).

Shutting down literally everything except food, shelter, utilities and medicine will cause massive economic devastation and end up killing more people than it saves.

The goal should be to reduce the rate of spread as much as possible *while* keeping 80% of the economy still going.
 
some 30% of the US is a risk group
I can't say what would be best, because I have not the faintest clue
 
Neo
@Kaz I think that is what will end up happening....
 
every proposed solution has super harsh downsides that make you pessimistic as hell just thinking about
 
Neo
@Magisch Yep.
 
@Kaz this was more or less the original "mitigation" strategy in the UK - then the ugly numbers came out that it would translate to 250,000 dead
or when they ran the numbers against the US it was 1.1-1.2 million
 
4:06 PM
I heard different numbers about both
1.5-2m for the UK and 6m+ for the US
though, sack of salt, not even virologists agree on numbers on this, too many uncertainties
 
in the interests of citing I'm using the modelling here
agreed that there's a great deal of unkowns at play
 
nobody can really predict what a cascading health system failure could do to mortality rates and indirect deaths caused by overloaded hospitals not being able to deal with non-corona critical patients
nor how close you can cut it without having that happen
 
Kaz
Super harsh take:

Acceptable loss. Half of them were dying, severely ill or only a few years from death by old age anyway. And you haven't actually saved the other half. You've just shifted them from public death by virus to diffuse death by poverty, homelessness, suicide, crime etc.

Shutting down that last 10% of the economy for not much marginal gain is, IMO, a move we will end up regretting.
 
I see your argument
but try to argue that and not sound like a monster
the line of reasoning creates a sort of visceral empathic reaction of disgust and rejection in people that is very hard to reason out of. This whole thing is basically a high stakes version of the trolley problem which nobody finds easy.
(not saying you sound like a monster just that selling that solution to the public is politically wholly unfeasible)
 
@Kaz there's going to have to be a certain degree of a losses to the virus deemed "acceptable" for want of a better word in order to balance against possibly greater losses of secondary causes - the $64million question is what course is best through the minefield
 
4:11 PM
I don't envy any politician right now
you decide between being an amoral monster and throwing a generation into extreme poverty
at least in the public's eyes
 
Kaz
See South Korea, Japan, Singapore for examples of how you keep the economy more or less running as before while massively ramping up public health resources
 
I feel that is also partially a cultural issue
our government can't even stop corona parties without police intervention, over there they're distancing and wearing masks on their own
 
Neo
@Magisch Yep this is a fact. We had idiots at spring break visiting beaches in mass
 
@Neo yeah there's been similar idiocy here
 
I dont drink, ever, but in times like these I can understand people who would really just like to turn reality off for a few hours
 
Neo
4:20 PM
I drink on occasion and enjoy it.
 
@Neo I must admit I've had a glass of wine most nights in the last week or so
which is highly unusual for me
 
I have to admit, all of this is affecting me more then it should
I'm worried sick for many friends and colleagues who are in risk categories, for people who might lose their job, and it feels like I can't do jack shit
 
I think for me it's not so much acute worry as it is chronic low-intensity worry
 
 
3 hours later…
7:01 PM
Suppaah
Had to come down to the office to do some maintenance to the servers
Passing by to say hi
Now in Guatemala we have a curfew, from 4pm to 4am :O
c ya later
 
 
3 hours later…
9:43 PM
Darn that's a long curfew. Good luck @Dark!
 
 
1 hour later…
11:03 PM
Southern hemisphere we do things a bit differently.
COVID-19 STATUS UPDATE:
UNITED KINGDOM: Lockdown
ITALY: Lockdown
SPAIN: Lockdown
AUSTRALIA: Fighting Over Toilet Paper
NEW ZEALAND: Extra Dole Payment so Unemployed can stock up Drugs
SAMOA: Mass Prison Break and the Head of the Health Ministry is videoed drunk dancing around in his panties at the covid-19 strategy meeting
 

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