@Szabolcs Well, if the strategy were to minimize the number of infected then it is quite obvious that borders should have been shut down, schools should be shut down, every place people meet at should be shut down etc. but the strategy of most countries is to strike some kind of balance between limiting infection and disruption to society.
@halirutan Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation does a lot in China to fight against tuberculosis. I think they covers certain percentage fee of every TB testkit here.
People in China might be more willing to hoard food than people in many other countries during any crisis. Maybe only a few people know, that the recorded fifth deadly starvation in world history happened here, just around 1960. It's the time my parents' generation are young, the memory is still fresh passing down to my generation.
Grass roots and tree barks were regular food during that time. Protein sources from occasionally captured small wild animals, like mice, are real feast for a whole family. Elderly might choose to die in volunteer to save food for family members. (That's how my grandpa passed away - running away silently in the midnight and hiding in a cave starving to the end.)
All those are just 60 years ago. So yes, we still haven't forgotten what crisis looks like.
Seems to be buggier than 12.0. And I already reported the regression quite a while ago...
DateListPlot[{}, PlotRange -> {{DateObject[{2019, 12, 3}], DateObject[{2020, 1, 3}]}, Automatic}] -> daily ticks missing for the partial week on the left. Didn't happen on 12.0.
I don't think keeping something like that not regressed would be rocket science...
@Silvia i saw the documentary "one-child nation" on amazon prime, jesus those years must have been hard in china. what they did to pregnant women who had more than 1 child was the saddest thing i have ever saw, and everybody answered in the same way " there was no food"
Cheers from Eastern Europe. While concerns about level of democracy here are voiced I must say on community level people cooperate, in majority. I am surprised people stopped going to church and obey restrictions without being forced too. Are measures taken too severe? Maybe, I don't know enough to judge and it feels highly risky not to do it that way. I am really interested to see how it unfolds in UK, and keeping my fingers crossed for them.
Since my last comments, the Finnish government announced plan to put emergency laws in place, in effect on Thursday, most drastic action since the second world war. I hope it helps, I just fear it's at least one week too late to avoid Italy-like outcome.
@Silvia Hih. You're welcome once borders are again open. (Although getting a visa for individual travel used to be a bit hard for Chinese citizens... lots to prove.)
Isaac Newton, pandemic isolation and pi on the same video:
Yes, in a way it is. But it's very hard to see for me.
data = ResourceData["Epidemic Data for Novel Coronavirus COVID-19"];
getCountry[name_] :=
With[{c = Interpreter["Country"][name]},
data[Select[#Country === c &], "ConfirmedCases"] // Total
]
getCountryDeaths[name_] :=
With[{c = Interpreter["Country"][name]},
data[Select[#Country === c &], "Deaths"] // Total
]
I just keep looking at Italy's curves these days and trying to figure out if it is already starting to slow down. I did the same with China's and it seemed basically impossible to tell until the slowdown became quite obvious.
Without actually see the delay, I would guess, because 60K out of 80K cases are in Wuhan or Hubei in early days of the epidemic, they could mostly be diagnosed or hospitalized too late.
@Szabolcs Italy's situation is quit different in the age histogram of the epicenter region. Wuhan does not have such a high fraction of elderly people.
@Szabolcs Agreed on trying Korea. So far I think they have provided the most perfect data, because their test covered a very large parts of their citizens.
On the other hand, maybe you could try China's data, but filter out Hubei and Wuhan?
Korea only had 75 deaths. The death curve is extremely noisy. It's 10 PM, and today I've biked for 2 hours in the forest to calm down. I'm really tired and sleepy.
Add to that questionable hygiene for situations like this (kissy-face greetings, lowest hand-washing rate in developed countries of Europe other than Netherlands) and Italy was ripe for this outcome. At least they are being quite serious about enforcing social distancing.
Here in San Francisco bay area, they just announced mandatory "Shelter in place" order, meaning non-essential businesses closed and individuals to stay home other than for necessities shopping / medical care.
My colleague on business trip near NYC can not get home now (or maybe in next 2 months), because the flight ticket back to Hong Kong is prohibitedly expensive. We are looking for 20K US$ for single person.
Looking at the "PDF" curves for China above: there are those huge fluctuations are certain days like ~Feb 20, Feb 12, Feb 29. These appear to be data reporting anomalies. It seems that some data was reported one day early or one day late, but in the end it still adds up.
If we smooth these out (in our heads for now), it does appear that the cases curve peaks sooner than the deaths curve. Maybe 20 days sooner. Yes, this is "measured" by staring at the plot for 5 seconds, it's probably wrong.
@Silvia And on the other side of that coin, a buddy was in Arizona for spring training, which was cancelled. His kids implored him not to fly back. So he rented a car. It only cost him $15 a day - they had so many car cancellations they just wanted to move them.
Our strategy is supposedly to isolate old people, let the disease go through the younger population, and achieve herd immunity by late August or September so as to avoid a second peak in the autumn.
@Szabolcs In the US, lack of cases might be more due to lack of testing. Our state universities went online when there were 39 tests done in the state (Michigan)
