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Mohcine
Mohcine
11:48
Let {X(t), t€ [0,00)} be poisson process , please, why do we have Prob{X(t+Δt)-X(t)=0}=Prob{X(Δt)=0}
 
8 hours later…
Matthew Elvey-RNSTT IVERMECTIN
Matthew Elvey-RNSTT IVERMECTIN
20:06
December 14, 2020 to March 2, 2021 is not 3 months. It's not clear when they ran their searches. Around a week into March seems likely. It can't have been much later than that.
If so, the average time since reporting was ~= 48 days, or almost 7 weeks. (Assuming equal vaccination over that time, which isn't reasonable, so the average time since reporting is probably a lot less. There was far more US vaccination in Feb than in Jan or Dec.
In other words, the amount of time between when they ran the search and a vaccination during the 12/14-3/2 period was in the ballpark of only 4 weeks, on average.
(These are continued musings on my Q)
@EdM I know from looking at VAERS reports of mortality associated with vaccination, that the deaths are very heavily weighted toward the days right after vaccination. A huge chunk are the day of, or within 2 days, and the vast majority are <= a week after. It's reasonable to expect that SSNHL associated with vaccination, IF CAUSAL, would follow a similar pattern.
Caveats: I'd guess it likely takes days for SSNHL to obtain medical attention, while deaths are generally attended to immediately, so I'd expect a weighting to be found to be a bit less extreme, as the discovery and reporting to VAERS would typically less prompt and onset timing less accurately measured/reported.

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