I'm apparently very tired.... was just reading this: "I am currently writing my thesis on urchins..." and my brain took a moment to interpolate the "about" meaning of "on" there instead of some meaning nearer to "onto". The intervening second or so was a very strange interval.

EdM wrote: Their minimum-incidence estimate of 0.3 per 100,000 per year, applied to the corresponding assumed population of 86,553,330, works out to 260 estimated cases per year in that population. I suspect that the estimate of 0.3 was rounded up from 0.277, which would work out to 240 cases per year in that population.

That estimate was based on the 40 reports in VAERS that were most likely to have been associated with vaccination, assuming all cases were reported to VAERS (no reporting bias). Thus this annualized estimate is 6 times the corresponding numbers reported during the study period.

@jserv Maybe add which paper/link? Anyhow, it is better to ask on the main site.