The PA is viewed by meaningful fraction of its constituents as a borderline collaborator regime, that is it merely protests the steady erosion of Palestinian control in the West bank, acting as a strawman opposition to de-facto Israeli expansion, let alone obtaining meaningful sovereignty. That is different from the concerns of the US, though. The real US position is revealed in its regular UNGA vote against Palestinian statehood. US by and large sides with Israel here, and Israel is happy with a weak Palestinian government. US objections are, IMO, an excuse to delay progress on two-state.

@PeteW - Let's be fair to Abbas here, though. It is not as if he can just wave a hand and stop Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Try to push Israeli soldiers out militarily? Him and what army? Even if he had one, the Israeli forces are much stronger than Hamas, never mind what Abbas could get together. Oh, and then Israel would probably retaliate against the West Bank civilians. Maybe stage a sit-down or a march in a settlement? Good thing Israeli forces have never attacked non-violent protesters. Refuse to govern the West Bank in protest? Israel probably would be just fine with that.

@Obie 2.0 - The options of any Palestinian leader are severely limited, that much is clear. However, inaction is a guarantee of eventual expulsion, and all kinds of abuse in the interim. The march-to-the-wall episode closed the path to traditional non-violence, in brutal fashion, I'd say. US singlehandedly blocks all appeals to the UN. So by process of elimination what is left? One can do the math. There's nothing to praise here, but this is an equation Israel itself has created, frankly.

@PeteW - One can do the math, and if works out to nothing being left. Setting aside the fact that Hamas is itself pretty terrible, even if it focused on military targets, it has demonstrated that it can't keep the Israeli military out of the Gaza Strip. And the PA does not have anywhere near as many soldiers as Hamas. Abbas cannot conjure an army capable of defeating or even repelling Israel out of nowhere. So why hold Abbas responsible for doing the little he can—that is, vocally opposing the settlements—when all other strategies would be far less effective?

@Obie - Pretty sure Hamas wasn't expecting to win

The point is, if Hamas cannot keep the Israeli military out of the Gaza Strip, no way can Abbas and a few of his drinking buddies keep them out of the West Bank. It's easy to criticize someone for not accomplishing anything under the circumstances, but a lot harder to come up with a method for how they could accomplish something. I think it is pretty safe to say that whoever may replace Abbas in the future will not be any more successful without major changes in either Israeli, international or USA positions.

@Obie - Hard for me to say. I haven't been backed into a corner and humiliated in the same way. Hamas enjoys far more popularity than Abbas. Their radical and ofc violent action did something, which is typically the first thing powerless and humiliated groups seek to do -- show that their opponents are fallible. Israel's off-the-charts extreme reaction raised the cost, but also took the conflict to a place from which it'll probably not return. How it plays out I can't say. eg Israel may conclude it's gone so far theres no turning back, will 'shoot the moon' wrt/ territory, and end up like SA

I.e. Lebanon

@PeteW The difference between Hamas's attacks and Abbas's vocal protests against settlements certainly does not lie in that one is more effective than the other. One did lead to more dead Israelis and Palestinians, though, which I guess might make it superior according to Obi-Wan Kenobi.

Well it certainly has turned into a collassal act of martyrdom in the eyes of the Muslim world, if that's what you mean

But I think they don't have as much influence here as the US

@PeteW I mean, quite literally, that Hamas's attacks are no more effective than Abbas's strategy, but directly and indirectly, leave the world with a lot fewer human beings.

And yet they are the popular ones

anyway it's a lose/lose situation, that was engineered IMO by Israel, thinking they'd squeeze out a win/lose out of it. Oops.

@PeteW People like Xi and Putin are also popular in their countries. I long ago despaired of popularity having anything to do with competence or morality.

Netanyahu, for that matter, also was somewhat popular until recently.

The Israeli right is doing better than ever

Netanyahu, I suppose, will personally take the blame when the dust settles

Case in point, if anything.

Oh, Netanyahu is definitely taking the blame: reuters.com/world/middle-east/….

But whether his noxious ideas will eventually be seen as responsible...that remains to be seen.

Probably not, unfortunately. I think the last 5 months is something there's no way to take back. Either one goes all in on whatever story they tell themselves to justify it, or it breaks down and the brutality of it becomes inescapable. Prob most Israelis will go with the former.

The US however also has to eat the consequences. Not so sure they can pull off the same level of self delusion

@PeteW The USA will probably quietly move away from supporting Israel so much. If I'm very lucky, they'll end up where I would like them to be: where the political consensus becomes "a pox on both their houses" with regard to Israel and Hamas.

One would hope. It won't happen under either Biden or Trump tho, so at least 4 more years of it getting worse :-(

@PeteW It could definitely happen under Biden. He's a traditional politician, so he is somewhat more responsive to his electorate, and it also just so happens that his electorate does not want continued support of the Israeli war in the Gaza Strip.

So yeah, he could absolutely shift the way he has on things like same-sex marriage and abortion.

He does not have a good personal rapport with Netanyahu, either, quite the opposite.

Everything I said holds for Trump, but in exactly the opposite way: not traditional, not responsive, never admits he was wrong, gets along well with Netanyahu and the far right.

Yeah. You'd think being AIPAC's #1 historical investment would get you some respect...

@PeteW Trump doesn't actually get much respect from his voters because of Israel-related things. It's more the border wall and "wokeness" with them.

I meant Biden

Trump was way cheaper

I think your phrasing of "investment" is misleading. PACs tend to find politicians who already agree with their positions and support them with campaign advertisements.

Anyway I hope you're right. As you can tell I'm not holding my breath

No contradiction there

AFAIK, Biden was historically: 1. Strom Thurmond's pet Democrat , bipartisan on 80s-90s crime laws 2. corporate lobby 3. pro Israel 4. shut down any progressive movements within D party 5. top within Congress helping sell Iraq war

Not a fan

also he's left Trump's policies on Iran and China largely unchanged

which is going to be pretty costly IMHO

although ofc there is now no alternative to this, since Trump is running again

@PeteW That's probably true historically. But if you look at Biden's policies versus Obama's, for instance (on same-sex marriage, healthcare and more), they are more progressive on many fronts. Is it because Biden is super progressive? No: it is because the party has shifted, and he did not survive 50 years in politics without moving with the political current.

I'm sure many people would prefer Bernie Sanders or Cory Booker or someone. But if you are going to vote at all in American elections, will it be the career politician being reluctantly moved along by a progressive party? Or the wealthy egotist who has moved his party along with him toward authoritarianism?

Neither, thank you very much

@PeteW I did write "if you are going to vote at all."

If one chooses not to vote out of one's convictions, that's a choice I respect.

yeah I'm seeing this as a very poor range of choices indeed

As legitimate as voting.

I thought that way when I was younger, you know, so I respect it a lot. But I now believe that "great is the enemy of good" in first-past-the-post systems.

Oh I dunno. I guess I took the opposite path. Used to volunteer for campaigns, especially primaries. Local elections even. From my vantage point, since about 2016 or so (even during the primaries) everyone's just lost their minds, and never recovered.

Also, for what it's worth, it's very optimistic of people to believe that Mr. "Dictator on the First Day" would only be president for 4 years. He definitely believes he is owed at least 8.

And even if he didn't come up with some way of staying in office longer, Republicans are chomping at the bit to find a way of giving their party an insurmountable systematic advantage by hook or by crook.

Yeah... I don't find that super compelling. Democrats have screwed up plenty of things too.

@PeteW Like it or not, only one of the parties is promising to be a dictatorship right now.

And any action is justified to stop that happening, right?

@PeteW Any action? No. Voting for Biden? Possibly.

They should have you walking houses for the campaign!

I'm not telling you that you have to vote at all. Just saying to have a clear-eyed picture of the risks before making any decision.

@PeteW Thank you.

I am not even a huge fan of Biden, but I am flattered that you think my arguments are persuasive.

👍 ok lets leave it there. I think you did a good and sober job presenting them :-) I have to go get ready for dinner - Hope you have nice evening.