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User123456798

02:32

Hey guys, quick question sorry.

Using 1d20+4 against a DC16 skill check.
I need to succeed 5 times to complete the task, and I want to know how many rolls I'll need on average.

Any ideas?

doppelgreener

every time probability comes up i have to re-learn probability

HM.

Codeacula

I was going to try and use AnyDice

But, I've never used it before, so

doppelgreener

so, a d20 will come up 1-10 50% of the time, but you need 1-12, so that's 60% of the time.

Nyoze

1-12? I thought it was 1-11? =\

doppelgreener

Nyoze

02:41

1d20+4 is a range of 5-25. We need anything from 16-25, or a variance of 11.

doppelgreener

<_< yes, you're right

you need a 12-20, i am a dum dum

12+4=16=win

1-11 is 55% chance of failure

Nyoze

No your not, I'm just confused and managing to share it.

Infectious confusion... That would be a killer spell :\

doppelgreener

for sure

Nyoze

Right, so now try to figure out how to use anydice...

Sandwich

So if you have a 45% chance to succeed

And you have to succeed five times in a row yes?

That means you have to roll ten times at 50% to succeed, entropy aside

So 45% would be 12 times

Because at 50% you would need a certain result above the baseline

Nyoze

02:56

Not in a row, failures aren't counted, but just trying to figure out total number of rolls.

Sandwich

Minimum five

Maximum 12

Entropy aside

Better yet

If theres anything you can do to get a +1 to the check

You should just take ten 5 times for an autosuccess

Use of the Aid another action could accomplish this

Nyoze

Yeah, Take 10 isn't an option, hang on.

I'll give you some background :)

Our DM has decided that in order to increase our attributes, we need to succeed on any skill check of our attribute+5 between 5-19 times (Hasn't decided on the exact number yet), so assuming a level 1 character with 1 skill rank in a class skill, wanting to move Dex from 11 to 12.

Just wanting to figure out how many skills checks on average it would take to upgrade each level, so we know what a realistic goal to upgrade would be.

Sandwich

Oh okay so you need to roll above an 11 five times simultaneously?

Nyoze

Well, not simultaneously. Just roll over 11 5 times. then it goes up from there. I'm assuming this works out at higher levels including modifier to get easier, but I just want to check.

Sandwich

That would be trivially easy at later levels

I hope he decides to limit this

To perhaps once a few levels

Nyoze

03:07

Exactly. That's why I'm trying to run the numbers to show how easy it gets once we start getting stat mods and other things.

Sandwich

Whats your dex modifier right now?

Nyoze

Dex at the moment is +0. I started by dumping all my stats into Con, as that is the one stat there aren't any skills to train.

Sandwich

So right now the highest bonus you can have to a skill is 4 from ranks and 2 from possible racial bonuses

And maybe 2 from skill focus MAYBE

Nyoze

Well, Half-Elven, so yes. Skill Focus in Diplomacy, because I'm a paladin and wanted to talk to everything and everyone around to pump Cha.

Sandwich

Your highest modifier is CON?

Nyoze

03:16

Yeah, CON is +4, everything else is +0. Skill focus in Diplomacy, so +7 there, then +4 with Spellcraft and Sense Motive. Everything else is 0.

Maybe I should mention using Pathfinder not 3.5, don't know if that makes any difference lol.

Sandwich

It does

Feats are slightly less powerful in PF than in 3.5

Because you get more of them

Some are good and some are bad though

Nyoze

The actual numbers he used is that the EXP from any check is equal to CR of equal level/4, and using slow progression chart for experience. This works out to 5-6 successes normally, or 18-19 success if resetting EXP to 0 after every check (I'm thinking this is the better option at the moment).

Just need to figure out the numbers how to calculate the approximate rolls from each level.

Sandwich

Well if you're using 50% as a baseline

Multiply that by two and then multiply that number by the number of successes you need

Then for every 5% adjust the number of rolls up by 2

Nyoze

So assuming we go 19 rolls per level. At 10-11 that would be 38. At 11-12 that would be 40, yeah?

Sandwich

Yep

Nyoze

03:25

Awesome, thanks so much :)