@TheMatrixEquation-balance It's kind of a fair concern since Artemis 3's flight hardware is largely actually in progress and they're going to be sticking to the Block 1 configuration, so no changes or surprised from Artemis 1 or 2. And yes, SpaceX has tons of prototypes and a factory being built, and while they've done some great stuff, they need a minimum of 1 successful flight every 3 months to be on target for 2025

Can they do it eventually? Likely. Can they do it by the end of 2025? I'm less sure

I also don't believe in the nominal schedule, but I have trouble believing that Starship is actually the long pole in terms of moon landing schedule

Artemis 2's Orion is going to be the first one of the actual flight configuration

maybe the SLS launch campaign for Artemis 2 will be less fraught than Artemis 1's. maybe

or maybe it'll be a bad Gulf hurricane season and Michoud will wash out to sea

we're not really at the point of having a robust beyond-LEO capability

is Artemis 2 still IPCS? I need to look at the config tables again

while looking I have found this ulalaunch.com/docs/default-source/coloring-activity-sheets/… and it's vitally important to know which SLS is different

@ErinAnne I think there’s just a lot of risk, timeline-wise. Primarily because I can easily imagine them either quickly figuring stuff out by rapid prototyping and iteration, of getting stymied by regulators & litigation.

@ErinAnne ouch. But yeah, weather is a non-negligible issue

@ErinAnne AFAIK ICPS is in Artemis I-III, and EUS is after. Block 1 being ICPS and block 1B/2 use EUS, unless they’ve changed things

Compared to the single-engine ICPS, the EUS has larger propellant tanks and four RL10 engines.