Roughly, here's the forgery probabilities side by side for q messages, t-bit tag, n-block messages, and a b-bit block cipher, which costs nq + t bits of bandwidth:
CBC-MAC: q/2^t + nq(nq - 1)/(2*2^b)
GHASH: nq/2^t
Ideal: q/2^t
(The forgery probability with AES-GCM also includes an nq(nq - 1)/2^b term because of AES, of course. I'm not separately counting forgery attempts from legitimate messages; it doesn't substantially change the point, since forgeries may as well overwhelm legitimate messages to saturate the bandwidth.)