That would create a weird effect where the rolls get less and less random and then suddenly more random again. Players would also be able to count rolls to know when this happens. — sdgfsdh3 hours ago
Do I miss something, would the last 6 rools be "less random" than the 6 first rolls?
(I am aware that the players could count the rolls.)
Sort of. As the deck gets closer and closer to empty, your uncertainty about the next draw decreases, until the final draw is 100% certain. Then the deck is refilled, and you spike back up to complete uncertainty.
Say if you had two copies of the digits 1-6 in your deck, and you happened to get two 6s and two 1s in your first six rolls. You know for certain your next six rolls will only include the numbers 2-5, making them statistically more predictable/"less random".
If we ignore the fact that the player has information at their disposal, then we can't meaningfully answer questions about what information they have - which is what we're doing when we're asking how unpredictable an event is.
Phrased another way: a 6 is as likely to show up in the last slot as the first slot, but that doesn't make both outcomes equally surprising.
