Games = {H,B,F}, Outcomes = {+,-}
Let X,Y in Games, a,b in Outcomes
Suppose: X=Y, a=b: P(ab|XY)=1
Suppose X=/=Y, a=/=b
P(+|X)=P(-|X)=1/2
P(+|X) = P(++|XY) + P(+-|XY) = 1/2
P(ab|XY)=P(ba|YX)
HB, BH, HF, FH, BF, FB: ++ (12.5%) +- (37.5%) -+ (37.5%) ++ (12.5%)
<X>=0
<X^2>=1
<XY>=0.125(+1)+0.375(-1)+0.375(-1)+0.125(+1)=-0.5
<(H+F+B)^2>=0
<X^2>=0 => P(X=0)=1
=> P(H+F+B=0) = 1