The Pod Bay

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2:26 AM

I can't believe I've never been on this chat before. Can I just hang out here with fellow space nerds? Or do I need to provide only constructive comments somehow? Thanks

PearsonArtPhoto

2:48 AM

Pretty much just hang out, and be positive.

10 hours later…

geoffc

1:01 PM

@ChrisR Usually busier around interesting events. No SpaceX launches till Jun 28 (CRS-15 on the last Block 4 booster, I think).

Though an Electron on Jun 22/23 will be interesting.

PearsonArtPhoto

Yeah, SpaceX has been quiet launching...

Its a pity, I usually get a big spike in my website around launches, especially during US business hours.

geoffc

They are going to slow down until they get Block 5 into the fleet and qualified for quick reuse. If 1046 (first flight) is still being examined, then 1047 which is Telestar 18 or 19 in July, may not be reused until those results are in. And they need a B5 at Vandenberg. And they are only making about 10-12 a year at this rate.

So getting started back up on Block 5 is going to slow them down. The hope seems to be they can speed back up once they get a few in the fleet and reflying.

PearsonArtPhoto

If Block 5 proves to be anything but super reusable it will only make it worse.

Space Exploration Meta

2:00 PM

Q: How to edit colloquial questions

I recently edited this question and made some minor spelling corrections and tidying. However, the end of the question had this: Im thinking it would be a minuscule % but Im not sure. It could be a lot or a little but the idea is still sexy to me. Thank you guys. Now, aside from giving me ...

discussion

geoffc

2:17 PM

@PearsonArtPhoto Well, they can make 10-12 a year. If it is reasonably reusable N > 2, then they will be fine, but will delay BFR plans.

N < 10 is still years better than everyone else.

PearsonArtPhoto

They will eventually get it, but they might be in for a rough rest of the year if they can't increase their production significantly.

reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/8oj6ux/…

There are a lot of people in that subreddit that don't really know anything...

Someone stated that a 24 degree inclination change in LEO "Wasn't that bad".

reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/comments/8qlasj/…

geoffc

2:32 PM

Good thread. I want to hear news on how the 1046 tear down is going and what they have found so far.

PearsonArtPhoto

Yeah, would be interesting.

geoffc

Quickest reuse is 134 days, per SpaceXstats.xyz and the last 2 Block 4 boosters should beat that handily.

PearsonArtPhoto

SpaceX in some ways is a very open company, in other ways is a very private company. Only those in the know are aware that the latter is actually often the case.

geoffc

So long as they can get 3 or 4 cores out before July and start reflying them, even 1-2 months apart, that is probably enough to keep up with the manifest.

PearsonArtPhoto

When I worked with a mission going on a SpaceX rocket people were frustrated that SpaceX provided to little data to its customers, which apparently is against the convention in the industry.

People on Reddit /r/spacexlounge really don't like to hear anything remotely critical of SpaceX

geoffc

2:35 PM

I am ok with critique. I am just hopeful for the future. But not blind. There are some key tests coming up for Block 5 that are super critical. Many things hinge on them. Here is hoping they go well.

Evidence of success landing, learned experience from Block 3 and 4 suggest that B5 should not be that big a deal, but who knows.

PearsonArtPhoto

Question if SpaceX has a plan if the switch to Block 5 doesn't work as expected? Question the cost for the first ticket to Mars? They seem to downvote such things.

geoffc

Likelyest outcome is a B5.1 B5.2 before they are done.

PearsonArtPhoto

I would think that B5 should be at least as reusable as Block 4, but...

geoffc

Oh you points piggy. I do not understand Reddit votes, so I ignore them,

PearsonArtPhoto

If they can only do one reuse, it will be some trouple.

geoffc

2:36 PM

(Pot - kettle - call each other green!)

PearsonArtPhoto

There will already be at least one revision of Block 5.

They need new COPVs.

geoffc

Yep. 1 B5 reuse will be a problem. But is still survivable, just slows down other plans.

PearsonArtPhoto

Since next year will be a slow year anyways...

geoffc

No worse than B4 then. If B5 needs refurb, as long as it is cheaper than B4 refurb, can still be a win. Just not the home run they needed.

PearsonArtPhoto

There is, what, 32 flights planned for the year?

geoffc

2:38 PM

I found Gwynnes comments on next year interesting about the downturn.

PearsonArtPhoto

And 2 of those are FH.

So 34 core uses.

geoffc

Can they kick Starlink out the door fast enough, to use up the available flight opportunities?

Fill that manifest.

PearsonArtPhoto

I think that has to be the plan.

geoffc

And only 16-18 next year, I think she said.

PearsonArtPhoto

There are two sets of numbers for 2019. The customer launches, and the number of launches that SpaceX claims they will launch. They are two very different numbers.

I have to assume Starlink is the differentiator.

geoffc

2:42 PM

What are your 2019 numbers?

Heard any better numbers for Starlink's per fairing?

25-40 is the range I have heard. Not much more. So Heavy does not help at all.

PearsonArtPhoto

Trying to find it...

I can't remember, but I have heard something semi-official somewhere that indicated more launches planned for Falcon then the 18 or so Gwynne indicated.

Saw this on LinkedIn. So applicable :D

Tweeted by dramthethief on June 13, 2018 at 6:28 AM

geoffc

That is a good one.

PearsonArtPhoto

3:00 PM

Yeah, pretty true sometimes.

XKCD

3:25 PM

We'll pay you $1.47 to post on social media about our products, $2.05 to mention it in any group chats you're in, and 11 cents per passenger each time you drive your office carpool past one of our billboards.

uhoh

3:47 PM

@called2voyage it sometimes takes me additional seconds to get a clear picture of the issue. Was there some emergency about me being momentarily confused about the distinction between "space-based laser" and "space laser?" You locked the question just as I was doing the second roll-back.

Also, it would have been a lot easier if you just explained the nature of the problem, I could think of several different reasons why you were noting those facts, and did not know which one was your reason.

Space Exploration Meta

3:58 PM

Q: Clarification: "Who is the artist of this image appearing in an article about a Russian space laser?"

Who is the artist of this image appearing in an article about a Russian space laser? This question was previously titled (and worded internally) as being about a "space-based" laser. The laser is not planned to be space-based (which would mean the laser is in space) and the article never claimed...

discussion

called2voyage

@uhoh You didn't do anything wrong. I was just following standard procedure for a rollback war. You and I tried to rollback at the same time, so it got auto-flagged.

uhoh

oic, okay. I would have figured it out in five more seconds, but ya I think that feature is a good idea. Thanks!

called2voyage

Since we sorted that out, I'll remove the lock.

1 hour later…

Hobbes

5:18 PM

So, we have another useless question getting into the 'hot network questions' pool and attracting huge numbers of views. On one hand, it's nice that people see Space.SE, on the other hand, does it always have to be the conspiracy-nutter questions that attract the attention?

PearsonArtPhoto

5:33 PM

Listening to the Opportunity telecon

Opportunity is threatened! What a crisis! With no opportunity, how can we thrive?

geoffc

XKCD will have to redo the cartoon about it.

PearsonArtPhoto

Our spirit is already gone, opportunity threatened, but curiosity still thrives!

22 W/hr

Wow...

It should be able to stay warm enough to survive.

PearsonArtPhoto

5:54 PM

Overall they seem optimistic

Hobbes

6:07 PM

there are some alternate endings to the MER strip: https://www.reddit.com/r/xkcd/comments/6or057/xkcd_695_apparently_cern_scientists_couldnt/
https://imgur.com/VbKV9DF and https://i.imgur.com/VZvj5S7.jpg

PearsonArtPhoto

LOL