I'm attempting to find the damage distribution (given a target with stats) of a series of two 5e attacks, mind sliver and then two melf's minute meteors. But it seems I'm having trouble modeling dice rolls that have other dice rolls that they are dependent on. For instance: function: MOD saving t...

I know that rolling with disadvantage gives you a negative bonus in between 1 and 2, that's easy to calculate in anydice.com but how can I estimate the increasing in difficulty that adds an extra roll?. I mean, if the probability of getting a 7-9 in 2d6 is 58,33% and 10+ is 16,67%, what is the pr...

What are the chances that the opponent is able to get their attack in to disrupt a spellcaster as a function of casting time and weapon speed? Assume the opponent will hit, and use this summary of the initiative rules from the DMG: If the spellcaster lost initiative, their spell will always go ...

The question relates to statistics, and how you add up odds. I'll spare you my function for determining the odds of a die roll. Assume for the sake of simplicity that the foe's AC is 11, and my attack mod is +1, which would mean that a 10 or higher will hit. In this case, the odds of a hit are 0....

D&D 5e was heavily play-tested prior to its release. I have heard (but have not verified) that, at low levels, the hit rate of the attack rolls of PCs was intentionally optimized to be approximately 2 in 3. Presumably, this probability was chosen deliberately by WotC, then – through simulations, ...