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12:33 AM
10 liberal, 2 cons and 1 NDP confirmed in Atlantic Canada so far
Actual image of me, watching the results from South of the border:
12:46 AM
Liberals and cons are up to 14 and 3 now
good or bad?
@Unionhawk This isn't even the most tense part yet. Although the other polls should be closing by now.
BC doesn't even close for a few hours
Although by the time BC closes we'll probably already know who won, but it is a very tight race.
Libs can lose 16 before they lose a majority, but cons need to gain 72
Anything between those numbers is some toss up
My money's on Singh or May if that happens
Green is leading a NB riding, interesting.
12:50 AM
Yeah I'm not going to lie I'm image searching the pm candidates
To try and judge who would win in a fight to the death
It's not looking good for Scheer or Bernier
Actually thunderdome would probably be great, because they'd probably gang up on Scheer to start with.
@Unionhawk I don't think Bernier will get any seats, but the cons have already made small gains in Atlantic Canada. Atlantic Canada was literally all liberal in 2015.
Quebec polls are coming in and Bloc Québécois producing a very slim lead in one riding
So far it looks like it'll remain mostly red, with a bit of orange and blue sprinkled on.
@RedRiderX I think they're going to gain a lot of seats this election
@Wipqozn I just mean in the "could win in a fight to the death" smell test
Looks like Green has taken one NB riding and is set to take another
12:57 AM
@Unionhawk oh okay
NDP has only taken St John so far
So far it looks like the liberals have lost 7 seats in Atlantic Canada. 5 to cons, 1 green and 1 NDP. Assuming the leads hold.
So you could call 5 of those "true" losses for the purposes of a leftish coalition, but still 7 of the 16 they can lose to lose outright majority
Cons need to pick up like 70
tbh I kind of want them to lose majority anyways, so that's fine by me. Assuming, you know, the other seats liberals lose are to NDP + Green.
and by "kind of " I mean I want Liberal + NDp
Someone will probably have to unpin that after I go to bed
@RedRiderX Where's the second green leading district you're seeing?
@Wipqozn Fredericton, but not many polls are in
1:03 AM
I want the liberals to wither away into irrelevancy in the face of an NDP/Green coalition
@ToxicFrog That be nice, but it's not happening this year.
Maybe if we get off FPTP though.
But I'll settle for a Liberal/NDP minority government and the Greens picking up a seat or two
And then the NDP holding the liberals in the fire until voting reform gets passed
Liberals took my riding, which I expected. Geoff Regan has won my riding 8 of the 9 times he's run. He's speaker of the house too. He's actually good people from I've seen.
NDP and Cons were both a distant second, but were neck and neck. Liberals had 8400 seats, and NDP and Cons were both in middling 3000. Greens weren't too far behind, though, with 2k seats.
My riding is looking likely Liberal but the Greens and Tories are tied for second and if any riding is going to go Green it's probably this one
And yeah, I have no beef with my incumbent Liberal MP as a person, or even as a representative of my city, but fuck his party
So far the Bernier Party Featuing MAxine Bernier is barely ahead of INDEPENDENT.
@ToxicFrog Yeah pretty much where I'm at. There's some good peeps in there, but sadly, also a lot of bad peeps.
I do like how you can tell once the quebec results came in because the bloc got actual votes
started coming in, that is
1:08 AM
@Wipqozn that and their policies are basically "what if we just like...mostly maintained the status quo and never tried to improve any systemic flaws? ¯_(ツ)_/¯"
Which I'll take over the Tories, but grudgingly.
@RedRiderX That's a really close race.
So in Fredericton greens are leading with 3,870 votes, followed closely by cons and liberals at 3,290 and 2,961 respectively.
and NDP haven't even broke 1k.
but also
> 52/158 polls reported
Polls in my riding just closed a few minutes ago, so I probably won't get results for a little while
If you want a close race check Gaspésie-Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Liberals are leading in all but 2 Nova Scotia provinces. They have less than 100 seat lead in one of the cape breton districts, and they have nearly an 800 lead in west Nova.
err, those two districts I listed are being led by the cons.
1:20 AM
@RedRiderX Miramichi-Grand Lake cons have a lead of less than 100 seats
So many close districts
I like how the further north you go, the less ridings there are.
So much of Canada has no one living in it
I think the only polls still open are in BC. Open for another 2 hours, I think
So we'll start to see a surge in blue as the prairies get counted.
Although maybe something crazy will happen and we won't.
Maybe they'll go Rhino this year
That reminds me I need to finish Spec Ops The Line
And continue with my plan of not buying the new cod
1:37 AM
Oh turns out that Green riding Beauséjour wasn't so decided it ended up going Lib
So no decided Green ridings yet
The cons still have a healthy lead in West Nova, and a small lead in one cape breton district.
There's two really close ridings in NS. one leading liberals, one leading con.
annnd west nova just went con
PPC has its first lead in their leader Bernier's riding
That vote split on the left is really helping the cons, as usual.
I really hope election reform happens. Ranked ballot would just completely kill the cons. Probably really hurt the liberals too, but I think the cons would just cease to exist outside of the parries.
except assume I didn't have typos
"completely kill the cons. Probably really hurt the liberals too" sounds like a win win, too me
@Unionhawk It really does
1:43 AM
Instant runoff isn't even that hard to run or understand
@RedRiderX He's the Incumbent there, which I didn't realize. Although that makes sense.
@RedRiderX I presume that's like the only place they're really gonna get much
and bernier has already lost his lead to the conservatives.
but only 4/242 polls reported, so it's way too early to call.
@Wipqozn I wish it would happen, but I think the only way it will is if Trudeau isn't in office but that would likely mean CON and I think that's worse :P
Rhino Bernier has 20 votes. Come on buddy, you can do it.
1:44 AM
(take first choice votes. If nobody has a majority eliminate the last place candidate and transfer ballots to the next choice. Repeat until somebody has a majority)
@Ash A minority government is the only way it'll happen, unless the greens or NDP get a majority.
@Unionhawk It's really not. Heck, people can literally just treat it the same as FPTP if it's too confusing for them.
Yeah, you can let your ballot get exhausted
You don't have to rank everyone
Plus elections canada tries to do a good job of educating people, so I imagine if they did change it, there'd be people at the polls just there to answer questions for anyone.
Some people voted a whole ballot in the DSA NPC election which is wild to me
It was a 32 candidate elect 16 Scottish stv!
I picked just 16
Because I would rather my vote die than go to the other 16
Your last choice wouldn't even matter
1:48 AM
No definitely not
If the other 31 votes got tossed then the votes already over lol
In fact for my ballot, my whole vote stuck with my first choice until the very end, when my first choice was eliminated in the last round and my ballot was transferred to the only remaining unelected choice left on my ballot
I think rank around 7 or 8
Oh wow, the NDP crushed it in St. johns.
I knew they won, but they won by 5k votes.
actualy every NFDL riding was huge leads. Not nearly as close as the rest of atlanatic canada.
Actually I think that's just because I'm looking at pre-confirmed results.
prairies are all spinning up blue so far, except Peace River-Westlock, with a 4 vote NDP lead.
Prairies are slowly turning blue
but also only 3 polls are in
1:53 AM
I'm curious if Northern ON will stay orange
We have so many polls per riding. Which is really nice, since it makes it travel way easier.
My parents and I are in the same riding, and we alive about 20 minutes away from each other. Both of our polls are within 5 minute walks of where we live.
I am still like....in awe mine was in my building
I'm watching my riding closely because I think it will be red but I am curiious how much green there ends up being
@Ash They have them in some random places sometimes.
My advanced polling was at a school. My election day polling was at a charge.
The school was the 5 minute walk. The church is about a 15 minute walk.
and also even if it was further, I guess our local MP will give you a lift to the polls anyways? lol GG Canada
Oh shit, that second NS riding the cons had a lead in just flipped to liberal. A 33 vote lead.
167/196 polls reported
That's one close riding, wow. That might not be decided until all the polls are in.
Liberal 8,987, Con 8,954 and NDP 6,512.
and an independent at 4,645?!
There are I guess two possibilities re election reform in a lib minority
Either they decide that getting Tories elected is an acceptable risk to their project
Or they see this like "oh shit hm"
I uh, have a feeling it's the former
Oh shit another NS district just flipped back to cons.
155/220 polls reported, 111 vote lead.
annd more polls came in, they now have a 4 vote lead
2:05 AM
One riding in Manitoba has already declared won for Conservative
With less than 20% of the polls reported.
@Frank yeah that's wild
40/265 polls reported
They have a 4k vote lead, so the remaining polls must be really small.
So 3 ridings left in NS. One is has liberals leading with 900, and the other two are super close.
one leading cons, the other liberal. But both are way too close to call.
@RedRiderX Liberals now have just under a 400 vote lead
The NDP are leading in one Manitoba riding
@Wipqozn If by Libs you mean BQ then yes
@RedRiderX I thiunk I replied to the wrong message
oh no I just misremembered which place you were talking about
Most polls aren't in but atm Bernier is in a very tight race for his riding
There's a lot of cons and bloc in ontario and quebec, but barely any polls in.
2:14 AM
I'm hearing that our pal Justin is probably safe in PM officially?
I'm not even sure where he's running
Yeah CBC is projecting a liberal government at this time
Yes but a majority gov is unsure.
I'd be shocked if we got a majority government of any kind
One can hope
2:16 AM
Liberal-ndp would be cool
IT's still too early to call.
Looking like a wide trade of seats between left and right
Yes not many seats are decided
There's just way too many polls not in yet, but overall a Liberal minority has been the most likely for a bit.
Actually 18 lost on libs is officially a minority at least for them assuming they don't pick up many new ones
Cons need to pick up like 70 so
2:18 AM
I don't think liberals will pick up many seats. I expect liberals to only lose seats, and other parties to grab them.
Bloc is leading in 32 ridings, but nothing decided yet.
though 13 +18(?) is a start (idk where the bloc stands other than a free and independent Quebec but that sounds like "would coalition with Tories" to me)
Another NS riding has closed. Liberals. So now there's just two ridings. One of them is likely going liberals, since they have over a 1k vote lead at this point. The other is still a complete toss up, with cons leading by 46 votes.
180/220 polls reported in that 46 vote lead riding. That's going to remain open until all the polls are closed I bet.
Could recount even if it keeps up
Depending on what Canadian recount laws are
183/196 polls reported for that 1300 vote lead for the liberals.
@Unionhawk yeah I'm not sure, but it certainly seems like it would be close enough for a recount.
Here I think it's anything within a half percent is automatic
2:21 AM
> A judicial recount must occur where the number of votes separating the candidate who
received the most votes and any other candidate is less than one one-thousandth (1/1000)
of the votes cast, or where it appears to a judge, upon application and on credible
affidavit evidence, that there was an error in the tabulation of the vote by either the
returning officer or the deputy returning officer.2
[300(1), 301(2)]
Title of that page "Microsoft Word" lol
> Recounts will not occur when the results of the election are contested because of
allegations of irregularities, fraud, illegal practices or corrupt practices as those
allegations are dealt with through an application to contest an election
love 2 use like, just "convert to html" in word to build my government website
I suppose that makes sense. Recount doesn't solve fraud. Recount is essentially meant for "whoops, my bad"
omg this holographic justin
Damn it cut away. It was wonderful.
@Wipqozn 23 votes now
I think this CBC host talking right now is the one who basically took no shit during the debate
she was all "stfu, your time is up. stop talking over each other."
It was great
Okay that just flipped back to liberal, with 13 votes. 188/220 polls reported
So assuming everyone gets the seats they're currently leading in, then Liberals + NDP would have 165 seats.
170 is needed for a majority
Greens only have 1 seat projected
annnnnd that district has flipped back to cons, 42 votes.
holy fuck Sydney-Victoria be called already.
Oh still 27 seats they don't even have any sort predications yet.
Also, the bloc have secured 9 seats. They had 10 last election. So they're most certainly picking up seats.
2:37 AM
And it sounds like they're leeching seats from all the parties.
Is "nobody can form any sort of government, official do-over" a possible outcome in Canada
that NS riding jsut flipped back to liberal, 33 votes hahah. Holy fuck.
195/220 polls reported
@Unionhawk I, uh, actually don't know what happens.
Proposed what should happen:
This is also my complete platform in my write-in Canadian election campaign.
Scheer just got relected, unsurprisingly.
@Unionhawk Also, I do know that not being able to form the "Confidence of the house" can lead to a new election.
That's what happened to harper during his second term.
> Simply stated, the convention provides that if the government is defeated in the House on a confidence question, then the government is expected to resign or seek the dissolution of Parliament in order for a general election to be held.
@Unionhawk So, uh, yes, I think that is possible.
2:44 AM
@Unionhawk YEs
My favourite thing is that even if you win a majority, technically, you're not guaranteed the spot
Yes. In fact, technically the party leader isn't the PM.
Like the liberals could get a majority, but then the liberals could all just vote for make Gritty our PM instead.
Well, he's not a citizen, so....not quite ;)
I mean I'm assuming they need to have a seat in parliament, but you get the idea.
Also that super tight riding is now a 230 liberal lead. 200 / 220 polls reporting.
damn, NB has a lot of blue.
@Ash He's a Hockey mascot; close enough to Canadian.
NDP are doing well in BC so far.
Greens look like they will pick up a few seats though.
Oh huh, CBC says both the major parties are likely to get less than a 1/3 of the votes. Supposedly that's never happened before.
Interesting points by this CBC host. Basically the PC has a solid base, but that base never grows. Whereas the Liberals run into issues where the left vote is always splitting , since BQ is sort of left.
I meant he bloc is just fucking weird policy wise. Some left stuff, some really right stuff.
Justin just won his seat
wait no, it's CBC being silly again. Still, he probably will. Party leaders normally win their seats.
2:53 AM
congrats to the obama endorsed mp
hahah some CBC host on appealing to "all types of voters". "There's multiple ways to do it, some are better at it than others, and obviously the one you want to do it is the good way."
I think that sentence just got away from him.
Oh wow the Animal Protection Party lady in my riding has gotten 40 votes, that's a thing
Looks like Bernier has lost his riding.
@Wipqozn BQ is like "we're left but we're not but mostly really we only care about can we leave the country forever"
@RedRiderX niiiice
Green got Fredericton
@RedRiderX Which riding is his again?
2:57 AM
I don't know how to link to individual results
The leaders are on the bottom of that cbc page
@RedRiderX yeah he's losing that
I'm curious if Singh will hold his seat. He had some trouble getting elected into a riding.
@Wipqozn I am also curious about that
Those praries are a sea of blue. A handful of ridings look like they'll go NDP or Liberal.
It's interesting (aka not surprising) that the seats the NDP and Liberals are picking up in the prairies are all in urban areas. Rural are all deep blue.
Which , again, isn't surprising.
It's like I tell my urban friends every election - rural people are gonna be blue. They've always been blue.
It's gonna take a MAJOR sea change for that to shift.
3:08 AM
Liberals have locked in 106 seats, cons 90, bloc 22, NDP 8, greens 1, and the Bernier Party Featuring Maxine Bernier 0.
@Ash Yes. The right in general does a really good job of getting rural votes.
195/196 polls reported, still not called? wtf lol
Sydney-Victoria, 1300 liberal lead. I think the CBC site is just borked. No way that last poll has 1300+ people in it.
but maybe it does. I suppose the largest ridings could take the longest to count.
HE's speaking in some weird ancient language (FUTURAMA REFERENCE. I AM FUNNY)
> Ontario died for this
lol GG /r/onguardforthee. Because honestly, Ford really hurt the cons in Ontario it seems.
I mean I'd hope he did.
MAy is projected to win her seat again. not a surprise. Still too close to call for Singh.
jfc. CBC reporter is talking about how liberal and NDP voters are terrified of saying they support them in Alberta. one NDP supporter had their house vandalized for supporting NDP.
Woh, The heck just happened in Winnipeg Centre? out of nowhere suddenly 8600 votes for Green.
Man, just, fuck the [USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST]
@TrentHawkins oh wow.
That's why it's not over until it's over though. Sometimes on set of polls just goes all of one really unexpected colour.
The NDP are really hurting this election, although I guess that's not a surprise, sadly.
Until the election started they were kind of a complete mess.
oh shit, you go cbc host.
Pretty straight up saying "Is Quebec ready for a person of colour leading the country? and even the country as a whole?"
I mean yeah, Quebec has fucking anti-non-white people laws basically.
And NDP lost most of their seats in Quebec
3:32 AM
@Wipqozn And now green is back to 806 votes. I think someone accidentallied a wrong number.
A former olympian just stole a seat away from the cons in Ontario. He's running for the liberals.
5 hours later…
@Ave Yeah I linked that yesterday... it's a horrifying thing
1 hour later…
9:28 AM
1 hour later…
10:35 AM
Thank God
Also, all but one NS riding went liberal again
11:34 AM
(but also not really satire)
Also, the best part of scheer not winning, is I can keep being smug about Trump and Brexit! Take that @TimStone!
IT would've been so sad if after Trump is out of office @Unionhawk was all "Oh how's Scheer doing up there? I'm over here riding that AOC train."
And we'll just not speak of Doug Ford
or the blackface
or the SNC scandals
or the pipeline
@Wipqozn I mean
It's looking like Justin over a lib/ndp coalition
@Unionhawk Yeah that's the likely result, but on an issue by issue basis he could side with the bloc.
As in, it'll be harder for the NDP to play hardball on certain issues, since maybe the bloc would be willing to give ground.
Still better than a liberal majority though.
11:50 AM
Or a PC majority, or a PC coalition
This election kind of sucked for basically everyone except the bloc which is interesting
Quebexit in the next decade confirmed
@Unionhawk I mean that ones just implied
Overall I'm happy with really pleased with the result, but I just wish the NDP got more seats.
@Wipqozn I don't have time to catch up on the past 12 hours of election posts. Would you mind giving me a summary?
Hopefully they can bully the libs into election reform but maybe not since on that they'd probably go with the conservatives lol
tl;dr it was a close race. Liberal minority.
@Unionhawk That's the main reason I wanted the NDP to have more seats. If the liberals had no choice but to join with either the cons or the NDP, I'd be more confident they could do that.
I see. Are coalitions not allowed in Canadian politics?
11:58 AM
Although then again, the bloc might be fine with election reform too.
@Nzall They are allowed. That's literally what @Unionhawk and I are talking about.
@Wipqozn yeah, but will it be a full-on coalition with both parties part of the government, or a full Lib government with another party who will vote for laws that they agree with?
@Nzall It's too early for us to know that yet
@Wipqozn Are minority governments common in Canada?
They haven't event finalized the ridings yet, actually. There's still two riding uncalled.
Like, in Belgium, the usual governments are full-on coalitions between 2 or more parties where all involved parties get at least 1 minister plus a number of secretaries
12:02 PM
That's including this years election
but from what I understand, there are other countries that don't have this coalition government tradition where the biggest party forms a government on their own and finds another party with enough votes to complete their government program
@Nzall Both are possibilities in Canada
They could form an official coalition, I think, but they could also just not.
Wait, do I see this correctly? So the Liberals have less votes but more seats?
@Nzall Yes. Welcome to the FPTP.
Oh right, same disturbingly unfair system as the USA
12:05 PM
A buddy of mine posted what it would look like if we used a proportional system, and the greens and NDP would be pick up a LOT of seats.
The results under the current FPTP system:
Liberals - 157
Conservatives - 121
Bloc - 32
NDP - 24
Green - 3
Jody Wilson-Raybould - 1
PPC - 0

Rough results under a system that uses popular vote to determine seats:
Conservatives - 116
Liberals - 112
NDP - 54
Bloc - 26
Green - 22
PPC - 5
Jody Wilson-Raybould - 1

"See Canadians? It's a good thing I didn't do electoral form, otherwise the sPoOkY sCaRy CoNsErVaTiVeS would be in charge. You're welcome!" -Justin, probably
copy from his facebook
All parties except the bloc, green and PPC would lose seats under a proportional system. So the cons really have no right to complain.
Also, @Nzall, worth noting a minority goverment has never lasted the full 4 years.
One of them literally lasted 3 days, which I did not realize!
@Wipqozn NDP has the largest gains under proportional representation.
Although Green gets a pretty good chunk, too.
@Frank Greens would actually get enough to main official party status, which I believe means 12 seats/
@TimStone GDPR blocked
@Wipqozn lol oh yeah for sure fake justin, that's not a really healthy like 180 vote leftish coalition
@TimStone THis is just...sad. Wow. Just, wow.
@Unionhawk Seriously. The only reason Justin killed election reform is he knows his party would the one most hurt by it. Assuming it was a proportional system, anyways.
If it was a ranked ballot I think the cons would be equally hurt, since I imagine the prairies would be a little less blue
@Nzall tl;dr is just sorrow all around
speeches by justin, singh and scheer:
Oh Justin made a point to address alberta and saskatchwan specifically.
12:39 PM
@Wipqozn The part I don't get on top of it all is like, is the judge required to be all legal-speak there? Because they wouldn't have had to back up and explain things if they had just used more normal language. And that they had to do that is probably a good indication the whole thing is Not Great!
holy fuck CTV. 4 ads before the video? You're fucking insane. This is why cable is dying.
you showed me the same fucking ad twice
your sound fucking sucsk
CTV you're so bad. Let's try again at finding a CBC article
@TimStone He might not, but let's be honest, I imagine this is something well outside his comfort zone for dealing with. For good reason.
So he's probably doing the best he can, and seems to be doing okay at it.
1:33 PM
Hey the conservatives didn’t win in Canada
@Wipqozn how do these work? Who chooses which person from the party is elected in one of these?
@Nzall wait really?
I thought Canada was better than us at this...
@Stormblessed yeah, 20 seats more but 1.3% less votes than the conservatives
FPTP is problematic in today's age of connectedness.
It makes younger generations, especially, feel like their voices aren't heard, leading to greater disenfranchisement, and thereby less voter turnout overall.
1:48 PM
Not so much "feel" as... "correctly determine that" :p
Think your system’s bad? The Electoral College made Trump win when he lost by 2 million votes...
I mean it's still a FPTP system
I guess it just engenders cynicism in the political process at a younger age.
It just has an extra level of indirection, so it's FPTP twice
I hate that when you’re in like 2nd grade or whatever they tell you about how “oh the US was such a great successful experiment” when it didn’t work in any slightly democratic fashion until the late 60s and currently has so, so, so many problems
1:52 PM
the US has never worked in any slightly democratic fashion
Which, from a rather pragmatic point of view, is still better than other forms of government.
Not to say we can't improve, and honestly should, but it's still better than the stuff that came before.
I dunno, Native American tribes in the Northeast had some pretty progressive democratic systems.
Heck, I remembered reading some books that suggested some of the founding fathers (Founding Fathers?) were inspired by the Iroquois.
2:34 PM
Yeah it's a pretty interesting history/tradition:
2:54 PM
@Yuuki FoUnDiNg FaThErS*
Although for some reason casing like that has become shorthand for a mocking voice
The very people who created the electoral college because they felt the masses couldn't be trusted to vote responsibly.
The masses couldn't vote though :p
> Generally, states limited this right to property-owning or tax-paying white males (about 6% of the population)
@SaintWacko fOUNDING fATHERS 🤔
@SaintWacko tbh I actually thought you were mocking it until I read this
@Elva Which apparently was still enough voters to need another layer of protection.
@Elva IIRC, the Iroquois Nations were matrilineal and women "owned" (for whatever concept of "owned" you can define for the Iroquois) the land and yet men still had representation of sorts in the government.
2:58 PM
The only reason the electoral college exists anymore is because gerrymandering doesn't work without it
yes it does
@SaintWacko Eh? It seems like it'd benefit any FPTP electoral system.
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