@cfr My code
\documentclass[tikz,border=5pt,12pt]{standalone}
\usepackage[edges]{forest}
\usepackage{siunitx}
\sisetup{output-decimal-marker={,}}
\usetikzlibrary{shadows,arrows.meta}
\begin{document}
\forestset{%
probability tree/.style={%
TeX={%
\pgfmathsetmacro{\a}{1/3}%
\pgfmathsetmacro{\ab}{2/5} %
\pgfmathsetmacro{\notab}{1/7}%
\pgfmathsetmacro{\anotb}{1-\ab}%
\pgfmathsetmacro{\nota}{1-\a}%
\pgfmathsetmacro{\notanotb}{1-\notab}%
},
for tree={
% nodes
draw, rounded corners=2pt,
if level=0{circle}{minimum width=3cm, minimum height=1.3cm},