/dev/chat - 2020-02-26

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12:00 AM

ok tnx

14 hours later…

1:45 PM

Folks, how's the coronavirus situation looking? I'm quite worried about India. From the point of ease of disease transmission, it doesn't get much better than India.

1 hour later…

2:48 PM

@jesse_b Oh, sure: a leap year is every 4 years except every 100 years except every 400 years. That is: Only **even** years, I know.

So: if you only shower on the 29th of february of **not even** years you never shower, That was supposed to be funny, but it wasn't, it seems.

But you still can take a bath .... :-)

3:01 PM

@FaheemMitha The coronavirus is pretty bad. In just a couple of days more than 300 cases have been reported in Italy, where none were before. That is a country with reasonably good health system. That is because the virus could infect a person, that person will carry the virus for around 15 days without any symptom infecting other people. Every newly infected country has shown similar patterns.
The good news (if they could be called so) is that only about 2% of the infected people actually die.

@Isaac Of course that's good news. Forget absolute numbers, millions of people die every year. The main point is that while it is clearly a dangerous form of flu, it is not ebola: a 2% death rate isn't high. It's high enough to be taken seriously but not high enough to justify the public hysteria we're seeing.

Funnily enough, the increased precautions related to the coronavirus have resulted (so far) in much lower death rates for this year’s influenza epidemic than usual...

The same thing happened in previous health scares, avian flu etc.: people wash their hands more, cover their face more, stay home when they’re ill, and fewer people catch the “standard” flu!

I'm just mad that everywhere is sold out of dust masks :(

Hah yes if you’re trying to sand a wall you’re out of luck ;-).

3:23 PM

@terdon So why do you think there is public hysteria, then?

@FaheemMitha The public gets hysterical about everything

@jesse_b Not everything. They aren't that concerned about nuclear weapons, global warming, or that much of the world doesn't know where their next meal is coming from. And let's not get started on health care.

@FaheemMitha They have, hysterics usually die down quickly so things that have been around a while no longer get attention. For example ebola is still around but nobody talks about it anymore

Right, hysteria is driven by change (because that’s what drives the news cycle).

@jesse_b Ebola isn't spreading rapidly. And isn't likely to.

I guess in part because it has an extremely high mortality rate. Though I know next to nothing about epidemiology.

Also:

> The virus spreads through direct contact with body fluids, such as blood from infected humans or other animals.

So airborne transmission is not a thing.

Anyway, the coronavirus thing seems quite bad to me.

3:36 PM

Its CFR is similar to the Spanish flu’s but it doesn’t have the same age patterns, so it is quite bad, yes.

@jesse_b The public gets hysterical about everything ... Not so, they are not hysterical about you not taking showers .... :-)

@FaheemMitha media hype and various misunderstandings of how infections work. The thing is, as @Isaac said, the numbers sound scary but we should think of the percentages and not the absolute numbers.

@terdon but the percentages are arguably scary too (2% CFR, compared to a 2-3% CFR for Spanish flu)

@terdon It still looks like quite large absolute numbers to me.

Also, if it arrives in India, there will be chaos.

And the odds aren't looking too good right now.

3:51 PM

@StephenKitt Well , the CFR (Cases Fatality Rate) calculated from serious reports: who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/…

Is higher: 2666 deaths / 77780 confirmed reported cases : 3.4276 %

@Isaac indeed, I was re-using the 2% rated quoted previously here

the global CFR is 3.36% so far, and that’s with 100 years of medical progress compared to Spanish flu

3.3-3.4 is even worse. Is there any kind of breakdown across age?

@Isaac :)

4:15 PM

@StephenKitt That means 98% of infections do not result in death.

So yes, be careful, and states need to enact measures, absolutely. But on the other hand, remember that if you do get infected, you have a 98% chance of getting over it.

@terdon That means that 98% of detected, tested, confirmed, infection cases do not result in death.
The number of infections that result in **one** confirmed case is not known.

@FaheemMitha Of course. The absolute numbers are huge, that's the problem.

@Isaac Yes, but that's the data we have so we can only use those. Sure, the real rate might be higher, but it could also be lower. Either way, it won't be very different since that would be detectable.

There's a very real chance that the number of infections is being inflated anyway since the symptoms are just flu. Most places won't have the time or equipment to run a PCR analysis and detect the specific virus involved.

In any case, all I'm saying is that while we should be careful, we shouldn't go crazy either.

One of the people I used to work with has gone full doomsday prepper, he bought plastic sheeting to cover all the windows and doors to his house and bought a bunch of canned foods and gas masks, etc

@terdon It can not be lower. A confirmed infected case must be an infection. The reverse: An infection of someone which stay at home, is not tested and results in not confirmation is still "an infection" but not a "confirmed infected case".

@Isaac Yes but the percentage of deaths can be lower if there are a lot of unconfirmed cases that don't result in death

4:22 PM

@terdon No, confirmed cases can NOT be inflated, they result from lab tests, not people opinion.ANd we are talking of a serious organization report: WHO Just read it: who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/…

@Isaac A "confirmed" case isn't always confirmed. Not if they haven't actually extracted the patient's blood, isolated the viral DNA and then run a PCR analysis on it.

The WHO isn't confirming, the local doctors are. I don't know how often they do the full test, it is time consuming and not cheap, so I doubt they do it all the time.

I'm sure most of them are indeed true, mind you.

But yes, the table you linked to mentions "laboratory confirmed". So that should indeed be the kind I was describing.

There has been some talk of a vaccine.

What is the likelihood of it mutating?

Yes, I saw a press release yesterday.

@jesse_b No, the percentage of deaths is a pretty strong number. A death person is someone that died, there is no much hiding that could be done in that number. And "confirmed cases" result from lab tests, Labs could also independently report the number of tests that were positive.

If what you mean is that a person could get infected and, after not being detected, would **not** die, then yes, that number could be lower, even much lower.

But that is **very** different measurement and indicator.

businesswire.com/news/home/20200224005955/en/…

4:29 PM

@Isaac I'm talking simply about the rate of deaths which you all are saying is around 2%. That is 2% of people that are known to have the virus, but if thousands of people are getting the virus and not being treated for it and just getting over it naturally then the death rate would actually be less than 2%

Most people that get the flu don't go to the doctor about it so if people think they have the flu they are probably just staying home and getting over it

@jesse_b That assumes that people not reporting it are recovering from it.

@terdon I suspect that what you say is not a reflection of reality. Country reported cases as "confirmed cases" could only come from test results. If you have information negating that please share it, otherwise, I'll keep trusting WHO given data.

@FaheemMitha Well if they die from it there would be an investigation into their death and it would be determined what they died from

@jesse_b Perhaps. I think that would depend on the country.

@FaheemMitha true

4:34 PM

Anyway, still worried about India. Checking the news every few hours.

@jesse_b Yes, you are correct, but, again, That's a different number.

We have plenty of bad stuff going on right now. We don't need some nasty virus too.

Currently riots in Delhi, courtesy of the criminal lunatics running the country.

@FaheemMitha I heard AIDS is a big problem in India right now

BTW, watch this if you haven't already -> youtube.com/watch?v=qVIXUhZ2AWs

@FaheemMitha To keep-up with most coronavirus news, follow @COVID_19NEWS on twitter.

4:37 PM

I don't think it's entirely accurate, but it's a nice piece overall. I don't know who Oliver is; it's the first thing of his I've seen.

@Isaac I don't really use Twitter, but thanks for the tip.

Some people are doing live blogging about the virus. E.g. the Guardian.

@Isaac I... don't understand what you mean. I already said you were right about the data you showed and those were specifically talking about laboratory confirmation.

I never told you not to trust WHO's data!

Who's on second?

I don't know if anyone is following India out there. I guess not.

@terdon You said: The WHO isn't confirming, the local doctors are. I don't know how often they do the full test, it is time consuming and not cheap, so I doubt they do it all the time. I say, they do it all the time for "confirmed cases", not for "suspected cases". Since you are saying A "confirmed" case isn't always confirmed. , could you share your source?

@jesse_b Well, you should say it like: Who is in second? , not Who's in second? or the joke doesn't work. :-)

@jesse_b Ha, bad memory: Who is in first, What is in second .....

@terdon What's the level of concern in the UK right now? You're still in London, correct?

4:51 PM

@Isaac Let me try again, I hope it will be clear: I don't have a source, you were right, I was wrong. OK?

@FaheemMitha High.

@terdon Hmm. Nobody seems worried about it here. Which worries me even more.

@Isaac you gave me a source that was clearly referring to laboratory confirmed cases and that source included the specific tests they ran (if you follow the links) and they are indeed talking about PCR which is what I mentioned. So you were right.

Of course I don't get out much. But India doesn't really have a proper health care response agency.

Like the CDC, for example.

@FaheemMitha As I said, I personally don't find it very worrying. Yes, it's serious, but there have been 13 cases in the UK, based on Isaac's WHO data, and 0 deaths. I... just don't see much to get worked up over in those numbers.

Apparently, this.

National Centre for Disease Control

National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) (previously known as National Institute of Communicable Diseases) is an institute under the Indian Directorate General of Health Services, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. It was established in July 1963 for research in epidemiology and control of communicable diseases and to reorganize the activities of the Malaria Institute of India (MII). Currently it has eight branches at Alwar, Bengaluru, Trivandrum, Calicut, Coonoor, Jagdalpur, Patna, Rajahmundry and Varanasi to advise the respective state governments on public health. The headquarters are...

@terdon If I was in the UK, I wouldn't be too worried about the UK either.

4:55 PM

@terdon Very, very clear now, Sorry I didn't get it before, truly sorry.

@Isaac :)

And, according to the same data, only 3 cases (no deaths) in India. So, again...

@terdon So far. Do you have any idea what could happen if a carrier got loose in Bombay?

@FaheemMitha I'd worry about that if and when it happens. No point in thinking about it now.

@terdon You don't live in India, so I don't think you need to worry about it.

I don't think you need to either. I'd be far more concerned with the riots and the nationalist you have in charge...

Both of which I am sure concern you deeply. :/

4:59 PM

@terdon Well, in terms of preparation.

Hell, how many people die in India every year through infections caused by washing in the Ganges?

995 points in bash...so close!

gold badge?

@terdon Yeah

Should only be another 5 weeks at this rate :p

Oh wow, they changed the coloring scheme for syntax highlighting. The red is a bit different.

5:07 PM

@terdon Where is red? I only see green, but I am partially colorblind

Quoted strings were red, they look more magentaish now. If you're red/green colorblind they might appear clearer now, I guess.

user image

Does Linux allow reverse engineering, see the link in this mail lkml.org/lkml/2020/2/24/1358.

@terdon I'm blue/green colorblind and they look green to me :p

hi

@Sarvesh What it do

5:11 PM

@terdon Some people, perhaps. But they probably don't spread it to other people.

India's health care systems aren't completely dysfunctional. But I don't think they would be able to cope with something the Chinese are having trouble with.

@terdon Aparently 1 million per year: “Today most people do not realize that nearly a million people living along the banks of the Ganga die each year due to illnesses caused by its polluted water...”

Ouch...

@Isaac That sounds high.

No sources quoted. I think Advani is just making stuff up. That's not a determinable number, anyway.

@FaheemMitha Yes, it seems "too high", but I gave the link, another (better) link might help ....

Advani is just a thug, anyway. Lying is a way of life for him.

5:18 PM

@Biswapriyo yes

The NCDC has a budget of USD 35 million. That's ridiculously low.

> CDC's budget for fiscal year 2018 is $11.9 billion.

According to Wikipedia. That sounds more reasonable.

Though of course there is no knowing what they do with the money.

2 hours later…

6:51 PM

@jesse_b Neat! (In a "missing cells in your eye" kind of way...)

2 hours later…

8:44 PM

@AndrasDeak I don't think it's missing cells but incorrect cells

Also debatable as to what is correct since colors aren't real they are merely a concept created from our own perception. Who is to say that the blue I see isn't correct and the one you see is incorrect?

1 hour later…

9:59 PM

@jesse_b I guess it depends. "Protanopia is caused by the complete absence of red retinal photoreceptors.", but "Protanomaly is a mild color vision defect in which an altered spectral sensitivity of red retinal receptors (closer to green receptor response) results in poor red–green hue discrimination" according to wikipedia

@jesse_b perhaps I can quote Vetinari's Quia Ego Sic Dico to decide that matter :P

but yeah, "blue + yellow = green" makes all reasoning about "true" colors moot

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