@Sklivvz Hi - can I ask what specifically you consider theoretical about my answer?
I'm not intending it to be a research answer or a math answer, but pointing out that the article misused the poll's data
Is there a way to do that while still staying on-topic for Skeptics?
I did cite one source (the census numbers) showing the numbers in the poll clearly do not represent a valid sample in the way the Times was using them; the rest of the answer is explaining why/how/etc., but if that part is inappropriate but the first part is okay, I can remove it
@Joe well the answer is basically a lot of guesswork, but most of it is just something you are asserting without actual evidence. It's OK to point out evident flaws in a paper, but I think a lot of what your answer states is a matter of interpretation, and as such it needs at the very least some specialist validation.
If you can clearly distinguish whatever we have evidence for (e.g. a poll with a recognised similar error would be good evidence that this poll has the same issue) and what is only a possible explanation, then it would be much better
But, I'm convinced that a lot of your guesswork is actually a correct explanation so I'm trying to think how to strengthen that part...
crossvalidated would probably be the best shot for asking for more eyes. the other possibility is politics but... it's not scientifically strong.